Dolphin Ratings - National Hockey League

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        58 27 293 234 -0.009 41.140    1  0.346    1  0.350    3  0.242    1 0.5429   16  1.091    6  0.246    7  0.239
PANTHERS       55 31 281 213  0.012 42.338    2  0.276    2  0.278    2  0.263    2 0.5340   30  0.914   14  0.060    1  0.466
HURRICANES     55 31 292 225 -0.004 41.745    3  0.269    3  0.269    1  0.281    3 0.5326   24  1.019    7  0.198    4  0.363
STARS          53 32 305 243 -0.002 41.416    4  0.245    4  0.239    7  0.217    4 0.5297   11  1.158    5  0.304    9  0.130
JETS           53 32 270 216  0.000 41.516    5  0.244    5  0.238    9  0.206    5 0.5296   29  0.933   18  0.024    2  0.388
AVALANCHE      52 33 321 265  0.001 41.524    6  0.226    6  0.218    8  0.213    6 0.5270    1  1.318    1  0.509   20 -0.083
CANUCKS        52 33 285 230 -0.003 41.368    7  0.223    7  0.214    5  0.230    7 0.5263   20  1.045    9  0.177    6  0.282
OILERS         51 34 311 247 -0.000 41.401    8  0.204    8  0.193    4  0.241    8 0.5231    6  1.201    3  0.383   10  0.100
BRUINS         50 36 281 231  0.017 42.597    9  0.180    9  0.169    6  0.223    9 0.5205   27  0.952   13  0.064    3  0.383
PREDATORS      48 37 276 255  0.005 41.848   10  0.129   10  0.129   12  0.097   10 0.5158   12  1.124   10  0.141   13  0.053
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MAPLE LEAFS    47 39 310 277  0.023 42.934   11  0.100   11  0.104   11  0.144   11 0.5127    3  1.279    2  0.387   21 -0.100
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 47 38 276 252 -0.007 41.481   12  0.089   12  0.095   14  0.077   12 0.5119   15  1.093   12  0.084   11  0.070
LIGHTNING      46 40 304 282  0.020 42.880   13  0.074   13  0.081   13  0.097   13 0.5098    2  1.296    4  0.363   22 -0.170
KINGS          45 40 266 232  0.000 41.582   14  0.049   14  0.056   10  0.149   14 0.5065   26  0.954   21 -0.009    5  0.307
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.010 40.214   15  0.028   15  0.037   22 -0.065   15 0.5050   25  1.010   26 -0.159   16  0.028
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.006 40.609   16  0.000   16  0.002   16 -0.002   16 0.5001    5  1.238    8  0.187   24 -0.191
CAPITALS       40 45 225 268  0.019 42.758   17 -0.038   17 -0.042   27 -0.133   17 0.4950   28  0.936   28 -0.311   15  0.045
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.003 40.500   18 -0.039   18 -0.046   17 -0.005   19 0.4939   23  1.027   22 -0.078   12  0.068
WILD           39 43 251 263 -0.001 40.425   19 -0.040   19 -0.046   18 -0.024   18 0.4941   13  1.112   20  0.004   19 -0.053
ISLANDERS      40 46 255 276  0.022 43.262   20 -0.044   20 -0.051   20 -0.065   20 0.4936   19  1.047   23 -0.115   18 -0.015
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.006 40.703   21 -0.059   21 -0.066   19 -0.064   21 0.4914   22  1.039   24 -0.122   17 -0.005
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.000 40.363   22 -0.062   23 -0.072   15  0.031   24 0.4908   17  1.074   19  0.015   14  0.048
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.001 40.604   23 -0.064   22 -0.072   23 -0.092   22 0.4910    8  1.193   16  0.040   26 -0.223
DEVILS         38 44 264 283 -0.002 40.529   24 -0.066   24 -0.074   24 -0.099   23 0.4910    4  1.274   11  0.139   29 -0.336
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.010 40.915   25 -0.081   25 -0.087   25 -0.108   25 0.4888    7  1.200   17  0.033   27 -0.248
COYOTES        36 46 256 273 -0.001 40.487   26 -0.117   26 -0.120   21 -0.065   26 0.4854    9  1.188   15  0.059   23 -0.190
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.019 40.032   27 -0.184   27 -0.178   26 -0.116   27 0.4777   32  0.836   29 -0.405    8  0.172
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.010 41.080   28 -0.250   28 -0.253   28 -0.200   28 0.4683   14  1.105   27 -0.179   25 -0.220
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.007 41.091   29 -0.318   29 -0.327   29 -0.273   29 0.4594   10  1.185   25 -0.152   31 -0.393
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.016 40.658   30 -0.335   30 -0.340   30 -0.408   30 0.4575   18  1.052   30 -0.451   30 -0.364
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.003 41.207   31 -0.443   31 -0.434   31 -0.504   31 0.4476   31  0.887   32 -0.737   28 -0.272
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.013 40.953   32 -0.540   32 -0.544   32 -0.597   32 0.4343   21  1.042   31 -0.653   32 -0.541

PACIFIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CANUCKS        52 33 285 230 -0.003 41.368    7  0.223    7  0.214    5  0.230    7 0.5263   20  1.045    9  0.177    6  0.282
OILERS         51 34 311 247 -0.000 41.401    8  0.204    8  0.193    4  0.241    8 0.5231    6  1.201    3  0.383   10  0.100
GOLDEN KNIGHTS 47 38 276 252 -0.007 41.481   12  0.089   12  0.095   14  0.077   12 0.5119   15  1.093   12  0.084   11  0.070
KINGS          45 40 266 232  0.000 41.582   14  0.049   14  0.056   10  0.149   14 0.5065   26  0.954   21 -0.009    5  0.307
FLAMES         38 44 253 271  0.001 40.604   23 -0.064   22 -0.072   23 -0.092   22 0.4910    8  1.193   16  0.040   26 -0.223
KRAKEN         34 48 217 236 -0.019 40.032   27 -0.184   27 -0.178   26 -0.116   27 0.4777   32  0.836   29 -0.405    8  0.172
DUCKS          27 55 204 295 -0.016 40.658   30 -0.335   30 -0.340   30 -0.408   30 0.4575   18  1.052   30 -0.451   30 -0.364
SHARKS         19 63 181 329 -0.013 40.953   32 -0.540   32 -0.544   32 -0.597   32 0.4343   21  1.042   31 -0.653   32 -0.541

CENTRAL DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
STARS          53 32 305 243 -0.002 41.416    4  0.245    4  0.239    7  0.217    4 0.5297   11  1.158    5  0.304    9  0.130
JETS           53 32 270 216  0.000 41.516    5  0.244    5  0.238    9  0.206    5 0.5296   29  0.933   18  0.024    2  0.388
AVALANCHE      52 33 321 265  0.001 41.524    6  0.226    6  0.218    8  0.213    6 0.5270    1  1.318    1  0.509   20 -0.083
PREDATORS      48 37 276 255  0.005 41.848   10  0.129   10  0.129   12  0.097   10 0.5158   12  1.124   10  0.141   13  0.053
BLUES          43 39 239 250 -0.010 40.214   15  0.028   15  0.037   22 -0.065   15 0.5050   25  1.010   26 -0.159   16  0.028
WILD           39 43 251 263 -0.001 40.425   19 -0.040   19 -0.046   18 -0.024   18 0.4941   13  1.112   20  0.004   19 -0.053
COYOTES        36 46 256 273 -0.001 40.487   26 -0.117   26 -0.120   21 -0.065   26 0.4854    9  1.188   15  0.059   23 -0.190
BLACKHAWKS     23 59 179 290 -0.003 41.207   31 -0.443   31 -0.434   31 -0.504   31 0.4476   31  0.887   32 -0.737   28 -0.272

ATLANTIC DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PANTHERS       55 31 281 213  0.012 42.338    2  0.276    2  0.278    2  0.263    2 0.5340   30  0.914   14  0.060    1  0.466
BRUINS         50 36 281 231  0.017 42.597    9  0.180    9  0.169    6  0.223    9 0.5205   27  0.952   13  0.064    3  0.383
MAPLE LEAFS    47 39 310 277  0.023 42.934   11  0.100   11  0.104   11  0.144   11 0.5127    3  1.279    2  0.387   21 -0.100
LIGHTNING      46 40 304 282  0.020 42.880   13  0.074   13  0.081   13  0.097   13 0.5098    2  1.296    4  0.363   22 -0.170
RED WINGS      41 41 278 274  0.006 40.609   16  0.000   16  0.002   16 -0.002   16 0.5001    5  1.238    8  0.187   24 -0.191
SABRES         39 43 246 244  0.003 40.500   18 -0.039   18 -0.046   17 -0.005   19 0.4939   23  1.027   22 -0.078   12  0.068
SENATORS       37 45 255 281  0.010 40.915   25 -0.081   25 -0.087   25 -0.108   25 0.4888    7  1.200   17  0.033   27 -0.248
CANADIENS      30 52 235 289  0.010 41.080   28 -0.250   28 -0.253   28 -0.200   28 0.4683   14  1.105   27 -0.179   25 -0.220

METROPOLITAN DIVISION
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE 
TEAM            W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS        58 27 293 234 -0.009 41.140    1  0.346    1  0.350    3  0.242    1 0.5429   16  1.091    6  0.246    7  0.239
HURRICANES     55 31 292 225 -0.004 41.745    3  0.269    3  0.269    1  0.281    3 0.5326   24  1.019    7  0.198    4  0.363
CAPITALS       40 45 225 268  0.019 42.758   17 -0.038   17 -0.042   27 -0.133   17 0.4950   28  0.936   28 -0.311   15  0.045
ISLANDERS      40 46 255 276  0.022 43.262   20 -0.044   20 -0.051   20 -0.065   20 0.4936   19  1.047   23 -0.115   18 -0.015
FLYERS         38 44 235 261  0.006 40.703   21 -0.059   21 -0.066   19 -0.064   21 0.4914   22  1.039   24 -0.122   17 -0.005
PENGUINS       38 44 255 251  0.000 40.363   22 -0.062   23 -0.072   15  0.031   24 0.4908   17  1.074   19  0.015   14  0.048
DEVILS         38 44 264 283 -0.002 40.529   24 -0.066   24 -0.074   24 -0.099   23 0.4910    4  1.274   11  0.139   29 -0.336
BLUE JACKETS   27 55 237 300  0.007 41.091   29 -0.318   29 -0.327   29 -0.273   29 0.4594   10  1.185   25 -0.152   31 -0.393

DIVISION                W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
ATLANTIC DIVISION     345 327 0.513    1  0.062
CENTRAL DIVISION      347 321 0.519    2  0.015
METROPOLITAN DIVISION 334 336 0.499    3 -0.012
PACIFIC DIVISION      313 355 0.469    4 -0.073

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.099 points in main ratings (0.079 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.008 for semineutral)
Average of 1.00 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Apr 28 05:30:17 2024
games through: Sat Apr 27 2024

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