Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      11  2 75 41 -0.015  6.314    1  0.034    1  0.032    1  0.041    1 0.5576   20  0.431   17  0.004    9  0.079   25 -0.308 P
RED SOX       9  4 75 52 -0.035  6.253    2  0.016    2  0.017    2  0.022    3 0.5328    6  0.630    6  0.167   22 -0.124   17 -0.083 P
GIANTS        8  4 41 35  0.051  6.277    3  0.015    3  0.015   10  0.006    2 0.5377   30  0.014   30 -0.359    2  0.372   26 -0.320 P
MARINERS      8  5 57 65  0.047  6.824    4  0.011    4  0.012   19 -0.006    4 0.5288   13  0.540   14  0.055   18 -0.066    7  0.269 P
PADRES        9  5 58 41 -0.072  6.596    5  0.010    5  0.010    8  0.010    7 0.5215   27  0.165   27 -0.246    4  0.266   21 -0.142 P
ROYALS        7  4 56 52 -0.002  5.544    6  0.010    6  0.009   17 -0.003    5 0.5262   17  0.476   18 -0.001   13 -0.006    2  0.515 P
ANGELS        7  5 61 65  0.070  6.399    7  0.009    7  0.009   14 -0.000    8 0.5212   16  0.498   15  0.022   15 -0.022    5  0.286 P
INDIANS       7  5 46 36 -0.022  5.892    8  0.008    8  0.007    7  0.010    6 0.5249   29  0.016   29 -0.354    1  0.374   19 -0.114 P
REDS          7  5 75 56 -0.031  5.848    9  0.007    9  0.005    9  0.010    9 0.5123    5  0.657    5  0.182   26 -0.162    3  0.471 P
BREWERS       7  5 53 39 -0.066  5.670   10  0.007   10  0.005    5  0.011   11 0.5098   24  0.363   24 -0.086    7  0.107   15 -0.038 P
TEAM          W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS          5  3 29 26 -0.180  3.432   11  0.006   11  0.003   16 -0.003   14 0.5059    8  0.618    8  0.131   25 -0.137   30 -0.725 P
CARDINALS     6  6 60 63  0.002  6.055   12  0.004   13  0.000   13  0.001   17 0.4929    7  0.621    7  0.137   24 -0.136   11  0.185 P
ASTROS        6  6 64 53 -0.097  5.514   13  0.002   16 -0.003    4  0.012   10 0.5101   14  0.526   13  0.060   16 -0.036   18 -0.112 P
ATHLETICS     6  7 56 78  0.138  7.340   14  0.001   12  0.002   22 -0.010   15 0.5057    3  0.710    3  0.214   27 -0.235   14  0.026 P
TWINS         6  7 64 51  0.059  6.820   15 -0.001   15 -0.002    3  0.013   13 0.5073   22  0.414   22 -0.040   10  0.065   16 -0.069 P
TIGERS        6  7 53 70  0.116  7.237   16 -0.003   14 -0.002   26 -0.016   16 0.5001    1  0.796    1  0.297   30 -0.329   12  0.089 P
PHILLIES      6  6 42 48 -0.088  5.650   17 -0.004   17 -0.004   25 -0.013   21 0.4841   26  0.289   26 -0.171    5  0.145   22 -0.143 P
WHITE SOX     6  7 65 49  0.039  6.728   18 -0.005   18 -0.004    6  0.010   12 0.5092   11  0.574   10  0.103   20 -0.082   29 -0.377 P
BLUE JAYS     6  7 59 51  0.007  6.581   19 -0.005   19 -0.005   12  0.002   20 0.4855   21  0.430   21 -0.037   11  0.041    8  0.215 P
RANGERS       6  7 55 60 -0.032  6.411   20 -0.006   20 -0.006   21 -0.010   18 0.4905    9  0.604    9  0.111   23 -0.130   28 -0.374 P
TEAM          W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS          5  7 32 52 -0.055  5.859   21 -0.008   21 -0.009   30 -0.020   22 0.4808   28  0.120   28 -0.310    3  0.269   20 -0.139 P
YANKEES       5  7 48 46 -0.064  5.709   22 -0.009   22 -0.009   11  0.004   25 0.4741   23  0.382   23 -0.076    8  0.084   27 -0.329 P
DIAMONDBACKS  5  8 66 74  0.058  6.883   23 -0.009   23 -0.009   18 -0.005   23 0.4807    2  0.721    2  0.231   29 -0.241   13  0.041 P
ORIOLES       5  8 53 65  0.093  7.107   24 -0.009   24 -0.009   24 -0.013   19 0.4874   18  0.472   19 -0.015   14 -0.011   10  0.188 P
NATIONALS     3  7 37 54  0.105  5.505   25 -0.011   25 -0.012   20 -0.006   28 0.4681   19  0.455   20 -0.022   12  0.011    4  0.350 P
RAYS          5  8 50 74 -0.028  6.477   26 -0.011   26 -0.012   28 -0.019   27 0.4704    4  0.703    4  0.199   28 -0.236   24 -0.255 P
MARLINS       5  7 55 55 -0.107  5.569   27 -0.012   27 -0.013   27 -0.017   29 0.4625   15  0.515   16  0.021   17 -0.054   23 -0.251 P
PIRATES       5  8 52 68 -0.062  6.292   28 -0.013   28 -0.014   29 -0.019   24 0.4759   10  0.579   11  0.078   21 -0.116    9  0.203 P
BRAVES        5  8 59 64 -0.156  5.744   29 -0.015   30 -0.017   23 -0.012   30 0.4566   25  0.318   25 -0.146    6  0.122    1  0.651 P
ROCKIES       3 10 55 68  0.251  7.903   30 -0.016   29 -0.017   15 -0.002   26 0.4736   12  0.555   12  0.072   19 -0.076    6  0.273 P

NL WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      11  2 75 41 -0.015  6.314    1  0.034    1  0.032    1  0.041    1 0.5576   20  0.431   17  0.004    9  0.079   25 -0.308 P
GIANTS        8  4 41 35  0.051  6.277    3  0.015    3  0.015   10  0.006    2 0.5377   30  0.014   30 -0.359    2  0.372   26 -0.320 P
PADRES        9  5 58 41 -0.072  6.596    5  0.010    5  0.010    8  0.010    7 0.5215   27  0.165   27 -0.246    4  0.266   21 -0.142 P
DIAMONDBACKS  5  8 66 74  0.058  6.883   23 -0.009   23 -0.009   18 -0.005   23 0.4807    2  0.721    2  0.231   29 -0.241   13  0.041 P
ROCKIES       3 10 55 68  0.251  7.903   30 -0.016   29 -0.017   15 -0.002   26 0.4736   12  0.555   12  0.072   19 -0.076    6  0.273 P

NL CENTRAL
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
REDS          7  5 75 56 -0.031  5.848    9  0.007    9  0.005    9  0.010    9 0.5123    5  0.657    5  0.182   26 -0.162    3  0.471 P
BREWERS       7  5 53 39 -0.066  5.670   10  0.007   10  0.005    5  0.011   11 0.5098   24  0.363   24 -0.086    7  0.107   15 -0.038 P
CARDINALS     6  6 60 63  0.002  6.055   12  0.004   13  0.000   13  0.001   17 0.4929    7  0.621    7  0.137   24 -0.136   11  0.185 P
CUBS          5  7 32 52 -0.055  5.859   21 -0.008   21 -0.009   30 -0.020   22 0.4808   28  0.120   28 -0.310    3  0.269   20 -0.139 P
PIRATES       5  8 52 68 -0.062  6.292   28 -0.013   28 -0.014   29 -0.019   24 0.4759   10  0.579   11  0.078   21 -0.116    9  0.203 P

NL EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS          5  3 29 26 -0.180  3.432   11  0.006   11  0.003   16 -0.003   14 0.5059    8  0.618    8  0.131   25 -0.137   30 -0.725 P
PHILLIES      6  6 42 48 -0.088  5.650   17 -0.004   17 -0.004   25 -0.013   21 0.4841   26  0.289   26 -0.171    5  0.145   22 -0.143 P
NATIONALS     3  7 37 54  0.105  5.505   25 -0.011   25 -0.012   20 -0.006   28 0.4681   19  0.455   20 -0.022   12  0.011    4  0.350 P
MARLINS       5  7 55 55 -0.107  5.569   27 -0.012   27 -0.013   27 -0.017   29 0.4625   15  0.515   16  0.021   17 -0.054   23 -0.251 P
BRAVES        5  8 59 64 -0.156  5.744   29 -0.015   30 -0.017   23 -0.012   30 0.4566   25  0.318   25 -0.146    6  0.122    1  0.651 P

AL WEST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS      8  5 57 65  0.047  6.824    4  0.011    4  0.012   19 -0.006    4 0.5288   13  0.540   14  0.055   18 -0.066    7  0.269 P
ANGELS        7  5 61 65  0.070  6.399    7  0.009    7  0.009   14 -0.000    8 0.5212   16  0.498   15  0.022   15 -0.022    5  0.286 P
ASTROS        6  6 64 53 -0.097  5.514   13  0.002   16 -0.003    4  0.012   10 0.5101   14  0.526   13  0.060   16 -0.036   18 -0.112 P
ATHLETICS     6  7 56 78  0.138  7.340   14  0.001   12  0.002   22 -0.010   15 0.5057    3  0.710    3  0.214   27 -0.235   14  0.026 P
RANGERS       6  7 55 60 -0.032  6.411   20 -0.006   20 -0.006   21 -0.010   18 0.4905    9  0.604    9  0.111   23 -0.130   28 -0.374 P

AL CENTRAL
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS        7  4 56 52 -0.002  5.544    6  0.010    6  0.009   17 -0.003    5 0.5262   17  0.476   18 -0.001   13 -0.006    2  0.515 P
INDIANS       7  5 46 36 -0.022  5.892    8  0.008    8  0.007    7  0.010    6 0.5249   29  0.016   29 -0.354    1  0.374   19 -0.114 P
TWINS         6  7 64 51  0.059  6.820   15 -0.001   15 -0.002    3  0.013   13 0.5073   22  0.414   22 -0.040   10  0.065   16 -0.069 P
TIGERS        6  7 53 70  0.116  7.237   16 -0.003   14 -0.002   26 -0.016   16 0.5001    1  0.796    1  0.297   30 -0.329   12  0.089 P
WHITE SOX     6  7 65 49  0.039  6.728   18 -0.005   18 -0.004    6  0.010   12 0.5092   11  0.574   10  0.103   20 -0.082   29 -0.377 P

AL EAST
                                         STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L PF PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED SOX       9  4 75 52 -0.035  6.253    2  0.016    2  0.017    2  0.022    3 0.5328    6  0.630    6  0.167   22 -0.124   17 -0.083 P
BLUE JAYS     6  7 59 51  0.007  6.581   19 -0.005   19 -0.005   12  0.002   20 0.4855   21  0.430   21 -0.037   11  0.041    8  0.215 P
YANKEES       5  7 48 46 -0.064  5.709   22 -0.009   22 -0.009   11  0.004   25 0.4741   23  0.382   23 -0.076    8  0.084   27 -0.329 P
ORIOLES       5  8 53 65  0.093  7.107   24 -0.009   24 -0.009   24 -0.013   19 0.4874   18  0.472   19 -0.015   14 -0.011   10  0.188 P
RAYS          5  8 50 74 -0.028  6.477   26 -0.011   26 -0.012   28 -0.019   27 0.4704    4  0.703    4  0.199   28 -0.236   24 -0.255 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    36 29 0.554    1  0.129
AL CENTRAL 32 30 0.516    2  0.047
AL EAST    30 34 0.469    3 -0.001
AL WEST    33 30 0.524    4 -0.025
NL CENTRAL 30 31 0.492    5 -0.036
NL EAST    24 31 0.436    6 -0.119

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.090 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.006 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Apr 16 05:30:05 2021
games through: Thu Apr 15 2021

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