Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      86 35 661 447 -0.046 57.250    1  1.435    1  0.351    1  0.293    1 0.5458  0.472  0.280  0.307  0.114
YANKEES      75 44 617 477 -0.013 57.940    2  1.249    2  0.221    3  0.223    2 0.5286  0.409  0.154  0.292  0.226
ASTROS       73 47 583 392 -0.005 58.828    3  1.211    3  0.191    2  0.280    3 0.5266  0.285  0.107  0.454 -0.040
ATHLETICS    72 48 571 504  0.002 59.426    4  1.161    4  0.182    9  0.108    4 0.5241  0.666  0.276 -0.060 -0.450
MARINERS     69 52 507 531  0.010 60.561    5  1.027    5  0.133   19 -0.010    6 0.5174  0.587  0.083 -0.102 -0.391
CUBS         68 50 576 490 -0.013 57.834    6  1.005    6  0.127    8  0.108    5 0.5178  0.407  0.038  0.179  0.265
BRAVES       67 51 578 484 -0.008 58.004    7  0.970    7  0.115    6  0.132    7 0.5159  0.553  0.192  0.072 -0.086
BREWERS      68 54 540 507  0.000 60.472    8  0.919    8  0.102   12  0.052    9 0.5139  0.379 -0.044  0.147  0.074
DIAMONDBACKS 66 55 542 470  0.019 60.822    9  0.906   10  0.095    7  0.125    8 0.5143  0.338 -0.006  0.255  0.104
PHILLIES     65 53 507 479  0.009 58.912   10  0.904    9  0.097   11  0.060   10 0.5136  0.395 -0.021  0.142 -0.002
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ROCKIES      64 55 556 569  0.030 60.424   11  0.874   11  0.087   15  0.030   11 0.5134  0.469  0.013  0.047  0.370
INDIANS      68 51 612 482 -0.080 55.025   12  0.842   13  0.072    5  0.135   15 0.5077  0.341  0.008  0.262  0.362
DODGERS      64 57 563 471  0.031 61.391   13  0.841   12  0.074    4  0.149   12 0.5121  0.462  0.126  0.172 -0.082
CARDINALS    65 55 548 500 -0.023 58.363   14  0.809   14  0.057   13  0.047   13 0.5085  0.523  0.079  0.015 -0.141
GIANTS       61 60 489 522  0.057 62.791   15  0.791   15  0.047   17  0.005   14 0.5079  0.292 -0.162  0.173  0.205
PIRATES      61 59 546 543 -0.004 59.358   16  0.755   16  0.013   16  0.011   17 0.5021  0.605  0.120 -0.099 -0.105
ANGELS       61 60 555 515  0.004 60.168   17  0.754   17  0.011   14  0.037   16 0.5022  0.494  0.043  0.031  0.026
NATIONALS    60 60 551 484  0.007 59.799   18  0.750   18  0.006   10  0.069   18 0.5011  0.409 -0.000  0.138  0.123
RAYS         60 59 496 488 -0.013 58.433   19  0.741   19 -0.002   18  0.000   19 0.4993  0.482 -0.005  0.005 -0.275
BLUE JAYS    54 65 529 602  0.015 60.038   20  0.646   20 -0.071   24 -0.117   20 0.4903  0.675  0.060 -0.295 -0.100
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RANGERS      53 69 586 643  0.028 62.110   21  0.592   21 -0.096   21 -0.073   21 0.4868  0.505 -0.057 -0.088  0.509
TWINS        55 63 518 548 -0.056 56.055   22  0.584   22 -0.099   20 -0.068   24 0.4843  0.485 -0.071 -0.066  0.070
REDS         52 68 541 616  0.024 60.809   23  0.580   23 -0.100   22 -0.086   22 0.4865  0.634  0.051 -0.224  0.043
METS         50 67 463 540  0.021 59.165   24  0.540   24 -0.113   23 -0.096   23 0.4848  0.715  0.121 -0.314 -0.590
PADRES       48 74 470 580  0.055 63.349   25  0.415   25 -0.152   25 -0.127   25 0.4807  0.373 -0.227 -0.026  0.134
MARLINS      48 74 450 627  0.042 62.835   26  0.374   26 -0.163   27 -0.210   26 0.4784  0.726  0.018 -0.438 -0.525
TIGERS       50 70 456 553 -0.056 57.251   27  0.316   27 -0.189   26 -0.207   27 0.4722  0.288 -0.378 -0.036  0.111
WHITE SOX    43 76 482 641 -0.045 57.453   28  0.211   28 -0.279   29 -0.269   28 0.4602  0.631 -0.135 -0.403 -0.072
ORIOLES      36 84 473 646  0.029 61.467   29  0.101   29 -0.340   28 -0.262   29 0.4546  0.520 -0.233 -0.292  0.092
ROYALS       36 83 436 651 -0.026 58.492   30  0.000   30 -0.373   30 -0.341   30 0.4487  0.509 -0.322 -0.361  0.032

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DIAMONDBACKS 66 55 542 470  0.019 60.822    9  0.906   10  0.095    7  0.125    8 0.5143  0.338 -0.006  0.255  0.104
ROCKIES      64 55 556 569  0.030 60.424   11  0.874   11  0.087   15  0.030   11 0.5134  0.469  0.013  0.047  0.370
DODGERS      64 57 563 471  0.031 61.391   13  0.841   12  0.074    4  0.149   12 0.5121  0.462  0.126  0.172 -0.082
GIANTS       61 60 489 522  0.057 62.791   15  0.791   15  0.047   17  0.005   14 0.5079  0.292 -0.162  0.173  0.205
PADRES       48 74 470 580  0.055 63.349   25  0.415   25 -0.152   25 -0.127   25 0.4807  0.373 -0.227 -0.026  0.134

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS         68 50 576 490 -0.013 57.834    6  1.005    6  0.127    8  0.108    5 0.5178  0.407  0.038  0.179  0.265
BREWERS      68 54 540 507  0.000 60.472    8  0.919    8  0.102   12  0.052    9 0.5139  0.379 -0.044  0.147  0.074
CARDINALS    65 55 548 500 -0.023 58.363   14  0.809   14  0.057   13  0.047   13 0.5085  0.523  0.079  0.015 -0.141
PIRATES      61 59 546 543 -0.004 59.358   16  0.755   16  0.013   16  0.011   17 0.5021  0.605  0.120 -0.099 -0.105
REDS         52 68 541 616  0.024 60.809   23  0.580   23 -0.100   22 -0.086   22 0.4865  0.634  0.051 -0.224  0.043

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRAVES       67 51 578 484 -0.008 58.004    7  0.970    7  0.115    6  0.132    7 0.5159  0.553  0.192  0.072 -0.086
PHILLIES     65 53 507 479  0.009 58.912   10  0.904    9  0.097   11  0.060   10 0.5136  0.395 -0.021  0.142 -0.002
NATIONALS    60 60 551 484  0.007 59.799   18  0.750   18  0.006   10  0.069   18 0.5011  0.409 -0.000  0.138  0.123
METS         50 67 463 540  0.021 59.165   24  0.540   24 -0.113   23 -0.096   23 0.4848  0.715  0.121 -0.314 -0.590
MARLINS      48 74 450 627  0.042 62.835   26  0.374   26 -0.163   27 -0.210   26 0.4784  0.726  0.018 -0.438 -0.525

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       73 47 583 392 -0.005 58.828    3  1.211    3  0.191    2  0.280    3 0.5266  0.285  0.107  0.454 -0.040
ATHLETICS    72 48 571 504  0.002 59.426    4  1.161    4  0.182    9  0.108    4 0.5241  0.666  0.276 -0.060 -0.450
MARINERS     69 52 507 531  0.010 60.561    5  1.027    5  0.133   19 -0.010    6 0.5174  0.587  0.083 -0.102 -0.391
ANGELS       61 60 555 515  0.004 60.168   17  0.754   17  0.011   14  0.037   16 0.5022  0.494  0.043  0.031  0.026
RANGERS      53 69 586 643  0.028 62.110   21  0.592   21 -0.096   21 -0.073   21 0.4868  0.505 -0.057 -0.088  0.509

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      68 51 612 482 -0.080 55.025   12  0.842   13  0.072    5  0.135   15 0.5077  0.341  0.008  0.262  0.362
TWINS        55 63 518 548 -0.056 56.055   22  0.584   22 -0.099   20 -0.068   24 0.4843  0.485 -0.071 -0.066  0.070
TIGERS       50 70 456 553 -0.056 57.251   27  0.316   27 -0.189   26 -0.207   27 0.4722  0.288 -0.378 -0.036  0.111
WHITE SOX    43 76 482 641 -0.045 57.453   28  0.211   28 -0.279   29 -0.269   28 0.4602  0.631 -0.135 -0.403 -0.072
ROYALS       36 83 436 651 -0.026 58.492   30  0.000   30 -0.373   30 -0.341   30 0.4487  0.509 -0.322 -0.361  0.032

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      86 35 661 447 -0.046 57.250    1  1.435    1  0.351    1  0.293    1 0.5458  0.472  0.280  0.307  0.114
YANKEES      75 44 617 477 -0.013 57.940    2  1.249    2  0.221    3  0.223    2 0.5286  0.409  0.154  0.292  0.226
RAYS         60 59 496 488 -0.013 58.433   19  0.741   19 -0.002   18  0.000   19 0.4993  0.482 -0.005  0.005 -0.275
BLUE JAYS    54 65 529 602  0.015 60.038   20  0.646   20 -0.071   24 -0.117   20 0.4903  0.675  0.060 -0.295 -0.100
ORIOLES      36 84 473 646  0.029 61.467   29  0.101   29 -0.340   28 -0.262   29 0.4546  0.520 -0.233 -0.292  0.092

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    328 276 0.543    1  0.087
NL WEST    303 301 0.502    2  0.046
AL EAST    311 287 0.520    3  0.035
NL CENTRAL 314 286 0.523    4  0.034
NL EAST    290 305 0.487    5 -0.011
AL CENTRAL 252 343 0.424    6 -0.191

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.056 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Aug 15 05:30:19 2018
games through: Tue Aug 14 2018

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