Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      87 35 621 406 -0.044 58.886    1  0.949    1  0.278    1  0.256    1 0.5479  0.329  0.067  0.445 -0.021
ASTROS       76 48 699 538 -0.010 61.792    2  0.809    2  0.155    2  0.179    2 0.5265  0.847  0.481 -0.124 -0.345
NATIONALS    74 48 647 515 -0.060 58.362    3  0.650    3  0.116    6  0.110    3 0.5198  0.604  0.166  0.054 -0.043
RED SOX      71 52 595 496 -0.000 61.819    4  0.619    4  0.109    5  0.112    4 0.5183  0.418 -0.001  0.226  0.037
INDIANS      68 54 594 464 -0.010 60.777    5  0.519    5  0.075    3  0.145    5 0.5137  0.351 -0.026  0.315  0.050
ROCKIES      68 56 648 598 -0.014 61.679    6  0.490    6  0.061    9  0.050    6 0.5109  0.491  0.001  0.099  0.485
YANKEES      66 57 630 519  0.009 62.266    7  0.485    7  0.058    4  0.124    7 0.5105  0.481  0.066  0.182  0.148
DIAMONDBACKS 67 57 602 516 -0.005 62.024    8  0.482    8  0.055    7  0.096    8 0.5105  0.353 -0.073  0.265  0.276
CUBS         66 57 597 543 -0.014 61.209    9  0.468    9  0.043   11  0.039    9 0.5073  0.446 -0.050  0.128  0.215
TWINS        63 59 578 620  0.022 62.544   10  0.460   10  0.034   15 -0.011   11 0.5053  0.556 -0.000 -0.021  0.244
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ANGELS       64 60 532 534  0.021 63.446   11  0.459   11  0.034   13  0.011   10 0.5064  0.389 -0.128  0.149 -0.041
ROYALS       62 61 549 577  0.016 62.797   12  0.447   12  0.015   18 -0.027   14 0.5017  0.526 -0.044 -0.010 -0.029
CARDINALS    63 61 587 539 -0.002 62.289   13  0.446   14  0.011    8  0.062   12 0.5020  0.593  0.108  0.016 -0.248
BREWERS      65 60 583 563 -0.029 61.487   14  0.445   13  0.012   12  0.014   13 0.5018  0.466 -0.057  0.086  0.093
MARINERS     63 62 586 598  0.007 63.329   15  0.443   15  0.010   14 -0.009   15 0.5014  0.617  0.060 -0.078 -0.117
RANGERS      61 62 628 593  0.001 61.943   16  0.440   16 -0.004   10  0.049   16 0.4997  0.544  0.049  0.049  0.253
ORIOLES      60 64 589 636  0.034 64.194   17  0.438   17 -0.004   19 -0.036   17 0.4989  0.658  0.073 -0.144 -0.003
RAYS         61 65 538 554  0.025 64.778   18  0.437   18 -0.008   16 -0.011   18 0.4985  0.461 -0.087  0.065 -0.147
BLUE JAYS    59 65 529 610  0.027 63.902   19  0.430   19 -0.019   20 -0.057   20 0.4958  0.535 -0.065 -0.048 -0.061
MARLINS      60 62 571 584 -0.019 60.586   20  0.428   20 -0.022   17 -0.025   19 0.4960  0.694  0.119 -0.169 -0.231
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
PIRATES      60 64 531 572 -0.021 61.537   21  0.420   21 -0.035   22 -0.064   21 0.4932  0.496 -0.108 -0.020 -0.108
TIGERS       54 69 590 643  0.023 63.202   22  0.374   22 -0.072   21 -0.058   22 0.4878  0.668  0.060 -0.176  0.102
ATHLETICS    54 70 541 647  0.028 64.002   23  0.365   23 -0.076   26 -0.101   23 0.4868  0.518 -0.125 -0.077  0.168
BRAVES       55 67 559 629 -0.022 60.571   24  0.354   25 -0.080   27 -0.101   25 0.4859  0.676  0.024 -0.227 -0.090
PADRES       55 69 471 624  0.002 62.832   25  0.350   24 -0.079   30 -0.161   24 0.4865  0.518 -0.185 -0.136 -0.215
METS         54 68 569 627 -0.021 60.559   26  0.324   26 -0.093   23 -0.084   26 0.4838  0.780  0.148 -0.316 -0.228
REDS         53 72 595 695  0.012 63.699   27  0.296   27 -0.101   24 -0.094   27 0.4826  0.791  0.149 -0.337 -0.001
WHITE SOX    47 74 526 623  0.039 63.007   28  0.159   28 -0.134   25 -0.098   28 0.4772  0.528 -0.113 -0.084  0.092
GIANTS       50 76 511 622 -0.002 63.641   29  0.105   29 -0.147   29 -0.152   29 0.4762  0.582 -0.117 -0.187 -0.265
PHILLIES     45 77 487 598 -0.007 61.350   30  0.000   30 -0.188   28 -0.152   30 0.4676  0.410 -0.273 -0.031  0.028

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      87 35 621 406 -0.044 58.886    1  0.949    1  0.278    1  0.256    1 0.5479  0.329  0.067  0.445 -0.021
ROCKIES      68 56 648 598 -0.014 61.679    6  0.490    6  0.061    9  0.050    6 0.5109  0.491  0.001  0.099  0.485
DIAMONDBACKS 67 57 602 516 -0.005 62.024    8  0.482    8  0.055    7  0.096    8 0.5105  0.353 -0.073  0.265  0.276
PADRES       55 69 471 624  0.002 62.832   25  0.350   24 -0.079   30 -0.161   24 0.4865  0.518 -0.185 -0.136 -0.215
GIANTS       50 76 511 622 -0.002 63.641   29  0.105   29 -0.147   29 -0.152   29 0.4762  0.582 -0.117 -0.187 -0.265

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CUBS         66 57 597 543 -0.014 61.209    9  0.468    9  0.043   11  0.039    9 0.5073  0.446 -0.050  0.128  0.215
CARDINALS    63 61 587 539 -0.002 62.289   13  0.446   14  0.011    8  0.062   12 0.5020  0.593  0.108  0.016 -0.248
BREWERS      65 60 583 563 -0.029 61.487   14  0.445   13  0.012   12  0.014   13 0.5018  0.466 -0.057  0.086  0.093
PIRATES      60 64 531 572 -0.021 61.537   21  0.420   21 -0.035   22 -0.064   21 0.4932  0.496 -0.108 -0.020 -0.108
REDS         53 72 595 695  0.012 63.699   27  0.296   27 -0.101   24 -0.094   27 0.4826  0.791  0.149 -0.337 -0.001

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS    74 48 647 515 -0.060 58.362    3  0.650    3  0.116    6  0.110    3 0.5198  0.604  0.166  0.054 -0.043
MARLINS      60 62 571 584 -0.019 60.586   20  0.428   20 -0.022   17 -0.025   19 0.4960  0.694  0.119 -0.169 -0.231
BRAVES       55 67 559 629 -0.022 60.571   24  0.354   25 -0.080   27 -0.101   25 0.4859  0.676  0.024 -0.227 -0.090
METS         54 68 569 627 -0.021 60.559   26  0.324   26 -0.093   23 -0.084   26 0.4838  0.780  0.148 -0.316 -0.228
PHILLIES     45 77 487 598 -0.007 61.350   30  0.000   30 -0.188   28 -0.152   30 0.4676  0.410 -0.273 -0.031  0.028

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       76 48 699 538 -0.010 61.792    2  0.809    2  0.155    2  0.179    2 0.5265  0.847  0.481 -0.124 -0.345
ANGELS       64 60 532 534  0.021 63.446   11  0.459   11  0.034   13  0.011   10 0.5064  0.389 -0.128  0.149 -0.041
MARINERS     63 62 586 598  0.007 63.329   15  0.443   15  0.010   14 -0.009   15 0.5014  0.617  0.060 -0.078 -0.117
RANGERS      61 62 628 593  0.001 61.943   16  0.440   16 -0.004   10  0.049   16 0.4997  0.544  0.049  0.049  0.253
ATHLETICS    54 70 541 647  0.028 64.002   23  0.365   23 -0.076   26 -0.101   23 0.4868  0.518 -0.125 -0.077  0.168

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      68 54 594 464 -0.010 60.777    5  0.519    5  0.075    3  0.145    5 0.5137  0.351 -0.026  0.315  0.050
TWINS        63 59 578 620  0.022 62.544   10  0.460   10  0.034   15 -0.011   11 0.5053  0.556 -0.000 -0.021  0.244
ROYALS       62 61 549 577  0.016 62.797   12  0.447   12  0.015   18 -0.027   14 0.5017  0.526 -0.044 -0.010 -0.029
TIGERS       54 69 590 643  0.023 63.202   22  0.374   22 -0.072   21 -0.058   22 0.4878  0.668  0.060 -0.176  0.102
WHITE SOX    47 74 526 623  0.039 63.007   28  0.159   28 -0.134   25 -0.098   28 0.4772  0.528 -0.113 -0.084  0.092

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      71 52 595 496 -0.000 61.819    4  0.619    4  0.109    5  0.112    4 0.5183  0.418 -0.001  0.226  0.037
YANKEES      66 57 630 519  0.009 62.266    7  0.485    7  0.058    4  0.124    7 0.5105  0.481  0.066  0.182  0.148
ORIOLES      60 64 589 636  0.034 64.194   17  0.438   17 -0.004   19 -0.036   17 0.4989  0.658  0.073 -0.144 -0.003
RAYS         61 65 538 554  0.025 64.778   18  0.437   18 -0.008   16 -0.011   18 0.4985  0.461 -0.087  0.065 -0.147
BLUE JAYS    59 65 529 610  0.027 63.902   19  0.430   19 -0.019   20 -0.057   20 0.4958  0.535 -0.065 -0.048 -0.061

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    317 303 0.511    1  0.040
AL WEST    318 302 0.513    2  0.038
NL WEST    327 293 0.527    3  0.027
NL CENTRAL 307 314 0.494    4 -0.013
AL CENTRAL 294 317 0.481    5 -0.015
NL EAST    288 322 0.472    6 -0.077

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.080 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Aug 21 05:30:20 2017
games through: Sun Aug 20 2017

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