Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS       109  58 814 612 -0.009 83.007    1  0.276    1  0.290    3  0.234    1 0.5319   27  0.376    7  0.117    2  0.350   13  0.015
DODGERS      110  60 857 580 -0.011 84.179    2  0.275    2  0.279    1  0.299    2 0.5313   28  0.365    4  0.173    1  0.425   16 -0.047
RAYS         101  65 877 677  0.017 84.197    3  0.260    3  0.223    2  0.248    3 0.5309    2  0.706    1  0.437   11  0.059   30 -0.400
RED SOX       98  72 886 784  0.042 88.077    4  0.228    4  0.179    7  0.137    5 0.5248   16  0.495    6  0.125    8  0.148    3  0.333
ASTROS        99  70 907 701 -0.003 84.461    5  0.216    5  0.163    5  0.223    4 0.5259    3  0.679    2  0.385   10  0.061   23 -0.139
BLUE JAYS     91  71 846 663  0.022 82.553    6  0.165    7  0.135    4  0.224    7 0.5205   18  0.468    3  0.187    4  0.260    9  0.159
YANKEES       92  71 713 675  0.035 84.098    7  0.164    6  0.149   10  0.091    6 0.5211   25  0.387   19 -0.017    6  0.198   18 -0.071
MARINERS      90  72 697 748  0.013 82.407    8  0.088    8  0.114   16 -0.020    8 0.5180    8  0.593   11  0.058   20 -0.099   27 -0.277
BREWERS       96  70 744 635 -0.055 79.700    9  0.077    9  0.108    9  0.094   11 0.5111   30  0.280   23 -0.103    3  0.290   11  0.112
WHITE SOX     94  72 814 667 -0.029 81.388   10  0.074   10  0.106    8  0.134    9 0.5179   20  0.445    9  0.077    7  0.190   12  0.028
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES        93  74 810 668 -0.025 82.114   11  0.046   11  0.090    6  0.152   12 0.5061   26  0.386   13  0.043    5  0.260    6  0.188
ATHLETICS     86  76 743 687  0.012 82.153   12  0.020   12  0.068   11  0.081   10 0.5136    9  0.591    5  0.158   14  0.003   28 -0.279
CARDINALS     90  73 707 675 -0.049 78.847   13  0.015   13  0.062   13  0.004   13 0.5051   15  0.522   15  0.016   16 -0.009   26 -0.259
PHILLIES      82  80 734 745 -0.013 80.766   14 -0.011   14  0.001   17 -0.032   19 0.4941    5  0.611   10  0.064   21 -0.128   17 -0.062
REDS          83  79 786 760 -0.046 78.528   15 -0.014   15 -0.012   14 -0.010   17 0.4961   23  0.411   21 -0.096    9  0.077    2  0.431
PADRES        79  83 729 708  0.009 82.161   16 -0.014   16 -0.016   12  0.014   18 0.4944   13  0.550   12  0.052   17 -0.024   24 -0.140
INDIANS       80  82 717 727 -0.014 80.689   17 -0.016   18 -0.023   15 -0.020   14 0.5017   14  0.533   18  0.003   19 -0.042   22 -0.115
ANGELS        77  85 723 804  0.034 83.886   18 -0.017   17 -0.022   20 -0.077   15 0.5016    7  0.600   16  0.008   22 -0.162   14  0.014
METS          77  85 636 668 -0.012 80.863   19 -0.033   19 -0.057   18 -0.052   23 0.4871   19  0.452   22 -0.103   15 -0.001   29 -0.338
TIGERS        77  85 697 756 -0.015 80.729   20 -0.033   20 -0.058   21 -0.078   16 0.4969    6  0.600   17  0.007   23 -0.164   25 -0.236
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKIES       74  87 739 796  0.015 82.164   21 -0.041   21 -0.066   19 -0.077   22 0.4880   22  0.418   24 -0.157   13  0.003    1  0.432
ROYALS        74  88 686 788 -0.002 81.601   22 -0.061   22 -0.084   25 -0.126   20 0.4935   24  0.401   26 -0.221   18 -0.030    5  0.257
TWINS         73  89 729 834 -0.001 81.680   23 -0.072   23 -0.095   23 -0.118   21 0.4922    4  0.664   14  0.030   27 -0.265   15 -0.042
CUBS          71  91 705 839 -0.026 80.131   24 -0.157   24 -0.138   26 -0.151   24 0.4800   10  0.585   20 -0.080   26 -0.222    8  0.161
MARLINS       67  95 623 701 -0.000 81.714   25 -0.198   25 -0.166   22 -0.106   26 0.4735   29  0.361   29 -0.235   12  0.024   21 -0.109
NATIONALS     65  97 724 820 -0.005 81.399   26 -0.220   26 -0.193   24 -0.118   27 0.4701    1  0.714    8  0.079   29 -0.315   19 -0.086
RANGERS       60 102 625 815  0.035 84.209   27 -0.235   27 -0.223   27 -0.211   25 0.4769   17  0.493   27 -0.225   24 -0.198   20 -0.094
PIRATES       61 101 609 833 -0.016 80.882   28 -0.242   28 -0.250   30 -0.277   29 0.4658   21  0.432   30 -0.345   25 -0.209   10  0.116
ORIOLES       52 110 659 956  0.070 86.590   29 -0.258   29 -0.295   29 -0.277   28 0.4660   12  0.559   28 -0.230   30 -0.323    4  0.275
DIAMONDBACKS  52 110 679 893  0.034 84.193   30 -0.281   30 -0.324   28 -0.232   30 0.4572   11  0.583   25 -0.163   28 -0.302    7  0.173
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS       109  58 814 612 -0.009 83.007    1  0.276    1  0.290    3  0.234    1 0.5319   27  0.376    7  0.117    2  0.350   13  0.015
DODGERS      110  60 857 580 -0.011 84.179    2  0.275    2  0.279    1  0.299    2 0.5313   28  0.365    4  0.173    1  0.425   16 -0.047
PADRES        79  83 729 708  0.009 82.161   16 -0.014   16 -0.016   12  0.014   18 0.4944   13  0.550   12  0.052   17 -0.024   24 -0.140
ROCKIES       74  87 739 796  0.015 82.164   21 -0.041   21 -0.066   19 -0.077   22 0.4880   22  0.418   24 -0.157   13  0.003    1  0.432
DIAMONDBACKS  52 110 679 893  0.034 84.193   30 -0.281   30 -0.324   28 -0.232   30 0.4572   11  0.583   25 -0.163   28 -0.302    7  0.173

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS       96  70 744 635 -0.055 79.700    9  0.077    9  0.108    9  0.094   11 0.5111   30  0.280   23 -0.103    3  0.290   11  0.112
CARDINALS     90  73 707 675 -0.049 78.847   13  0.015   13  0.062   13  0.004   13 0.5051   15  0.522   15  0.016   16 -0.009   26 -0.259
REDS          83  79 786 760 -0.046 78.528   15 -0.014   15 -0.012   14 -0.010   17 0.4961   23  0.411   21 -0.096    9  0.077    2  0.431
CUBS          71  91 705 839 -0.026 80.131   24 -0.157   24 -0.138   26 -0.151   24 0.4800   10  0.585   20 -0.080   26 -0.222    8  0.161
PIRATES       61 101 609 833 -0.016 80.882   28 -0.242   28 -0.250   30 -0.277   29 0.4658   21  0.432   30 -0.345   25 -0.209   10  0.116

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES        93  74 810 668 -0.025 82.114   11  0.046   11  0.090    6  0.152   12 0.5061   26  0.386   13  0.043    5  0.260    6  0.188
PHILLIES      82  80 734 745 -0.013 80.766   14 -0.011   14  0.001   17 -0.032   19 0.4941    5  0.611   10  0.064   21 -0.128   17 -0.062
METS          77  85 636 668 -0.012 80.863   19 -0.033   19 -0.057   18 -0.052   23 0.4871   19  0.452   22 -0.103   15 -0.001   29 -0.338
MARLINS       67  95 623 701 -0.000 81.714   25 -0.198   25 -0.166   22 -0.106   26 0.4735   29  0.361   29 -0.235   12  0.024   21 -0.109
NATIONALS     65  97 724 820 -0.005 81.399   26 -0.220   26 -0.193   24 -0.118   27 0.4701    1  0.714    8  0.079   29 -0.315   19 -0.086

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS        99  70 907 701 -0.003 84.461    5  0.216    5  0.163    5  0.223    4 0.5259    3  0.679    2  0.385   10  0.061   23 -0.139
MARINERS      90  72 697 748  0.013 82.407    8  0.088    8  0.114   16 -0.020    8 0.5180    8  0.593   11  0.058   20 -0.099   27 -0.277
ATHLETICS     86  76 743 687  0.012 82.153   12  0.020   12  0.068   11  0.081   10 0.5136    9  0.591    5  0.158   14  0.003   28 -0.279
ANGELS        77  85 723 804  0.034 83.886   18 -0.017   17 -0.022   20 -0.077   15 0.5016    7  0.600   16  0.008   22 -0.162   14  0.014
RANGERS       60 102 625 815  0.035 84.209   27 -0.235   27 -0.223   27 -0.211   25 0.4769   17  0.493   27 -0.225   24 -0.198   20 -0.094

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WHITE SOX     94  72 814 667 -0.029 81.388   10  0.074   10  0.106    8  0.134    9 0.5179   20  0.445    9  0.077    7  0.190   12  0.028
INDIANS       80  82 717 727 -0.014 80.689   17 -0.016   18 -0.023   15 -0.020   14 0.5017   14  0.533   18  0.003   19 -0.042   22 -0.115
TIGERS        77  85 697 756 -0.015 80.729   20 -0.033   20 -0.058   21 -0.078   16 0.4969    6  0.600   17  0.007   23 -0.164   25 -0.236
ROYALS        74  88 686 788 -0.002 81.601   22 -0.061   22 -0.084   25 -0.126   20 0.4935   24  0.401   26 -0.221   18 -0.030    5  0.257
TWINS         73  89 729 834 -0.001 81.680   23 -0.072   23 -0.095   23 -0.118   21 0.4922    4  0.664   14  0.030   27 -0.265   15 -0.042

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAYS         101  65 877 677  0.017 84.197    3  0.260    3  0.223    2  0.248    3 0.5309    2  0.706    1  0.437   11  0.059   30 -0.400
RED SOX       98  72 886 784  0.042 88.077    4  0.228    4  0.179    7  0.137    5 0.5248   16  0.495    6  0.125    8  0.148    3  0.333
BLUE JAYS     91  71 846 663  0.022 82.553    6  0.165    7  0.135    4  0.224    7 0.5205   18  0.468    3  0.187    4  0.260    9  0.159
YANKEES       92  71 713 675  0.035 84.098    7  0.164    6  0.149   10  0.091    6 0.5211   25  0.387   19 -0.017    6  0.198   18 -0.071
ORIOLES       52 110 659 956  0.070 86.590   29 -0.258   29 -0.295   29 -0.277   28 0.4660   12  0.559   28 -0.230   30 -0.323    4  0.275

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    434 389 0.527    1  0.104
NL WEST    424 398 0.516    2  0.057
AL WEST    412 405 0.504    3 -0.001
NL EAST    384 431 0.471    4 -0.038
AL CENTRAL 398 416 0.489    5 -0.050
NL CENTRAL 401 414 0.492    6 -0.081

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.077 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.010 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Oct 19 05:30:11 2021
games through: Mon Oct 18 2021

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