Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      55 20 378 229  0.018 37.351    1  0.382    1  0.386    1  0.338    1 0.5612   14  0.483    1  0.355    2  0.321   29 -0.332
ASTROS       47 27 329 251  0.030 37.355    2  0.234    2  0.232    3  0.198    2 0.5355   23  0.407    7  0.148    3  0.248   25 -0.181
METS         47 28 366 307  0.032 37.948    3  0.224    3  0.220    4  0.179    3 0.5319    7  0.574    2  0.281   10  0.078   21 -0.110
BLUE JAYS    42 32 352 323  0.088 39.094    4  0.167    4  0.160    6  0.141    4 0.5277    6  0.599    4  0.265   16  0.017   12  0.033
DODGERS      45 28 368 243 -0.065 33.983    5  0.145    5  0.140    2  0.236    5 0.5210   29  0.188   16  0.007    1  0.466    3  0.290
PADRES       45 31 353 290 -0.043 36.232    6  0.114    6  0.119    7  0.107    7 0.5164   11  0.505    8  0.144   11  0.071   27 -0.330
RED SOX      42 33 358 299  0.021 37.649    7  0.101    7  0.108    5  0.144    6 0.5174   12  0.492    6  0.169    6  0.119   10  0.105
BRAVES       43 32 354 308 -0.029 36.177    8  0.087    8  0.097   10  0.083    9 0.5124   28  0.329   19 -0.034    4  0.200    4  0.286
RAYS         40 33 295 278  0.018 36.622    9  0.074    9  0.085   11  0.075    8 0.5146   24  0.400   14  0.019    5  0.131   23 -0.159
BREWERS      43 33 337 317 -0.041 36.425   10  0.067   10  0.079   18  0.012   10 0.5098   21  0.429   18 -0.019   14  0.043   16 -0.036
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     39 36 355 322  0.047 38.473   11  0.056   11  0.061    8  0.099   11 0.5085    1  0.653    3  0.275   20 -0.077   26 -0.219
CARDINALS    43 34 370 299 -0.058 36.238   12  0.051   12  0.056    9  0.094   13 0.5082   17  0.447   11  0.079    8  0.109   15 -0.030
GIANTS       40 33 356 315 -0.029 35.249   13  0.050   13  0.056   12  0.066   14 0.5068   15  0.474   12  0.076   13  0.057    7  0.163
TWINS        43 35 350 311 -0.059 36.773   14  0.039   14  0.044   15  0.030   12 0.5082    9  0.549   10  0.107   19 -0.047   17 -0.054
GUARDIANS    37 34 312 301 -0.027 34.490   15  0.016   15  0.017   20 -0.013   15 0.5027   13  0.491   15  0.011   18 -0.037   19 -0.087
RANGERS      36 37 324 310  0.012 36.495   16  0.003   16 -0.004   14  0.037   17 0.4999    2  0.642    5  0.203   23 -0.129   24 -0.180
WHITE SOX    35 38 308 353  0.040 37.445   17 -0.001   17 -0.006   21 -0.036   16 0.5003   16  0.462   20 -0.037   17 -0.034    5  0.174
MARINERS     35 41 297 303  0.071 39.839   18 -0.008   18 -0.017   16  0.016   19 0.4973   26  0.375   22 -0.061    9  0.094   22 -0.136
ORIOLES      35 41 311 331  0.061 39.580   19 -0.014   19 -0.024   19 -0.009   18 0.4995    5  0.599    9  0.116   24 -0.133   30 -0.337
ANGELS       36 41 323 322  0.042 39.420   20 -0.014   20 -0.026   13  0.044   20 0.4962   18  0.438   13  0.021   12  0.068   13 -0.022
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARLINS      33 40 319 315  0.025 36.904   21 -0.042   21 -0.059   17  0.014   21 0.4912   19  0.437   17 -0.010   15  0.038   11  0.057
DIAMONDBACKS 34 41 308 355 -0.009 37.113   22 -0.069   22 -0.080   22 -0.118   22 0.4850   10  0.527   21 -0.061   25 -0.175   14 -0.023
ROCKIES      33 42 336 399 -0.032 36.436   23 -0.107   23 -0.113   23 -0.150   23 0.4805   20  0.429   26 -0.181   22 -0.118    2  0.546
TIGERS       28 45 219 317  0.012 36.911   24 -0.181   24 -0.175   26 -0.215   24 0.4757   30  0.059   30 -0.541    7  0.110    6  0.168
NATIONALS    29 48 308 416  0.006 38.703   25 -0.198   25 -0.192   29 -0.249   25 0.4698    3  0.612   25 -0.113   30 -0.386   18 -0.078
CUBS         28 46 313 392 -0.047 35.563   26 -0.221   27 -0.221   24 -0.190   26 0.4669    8  0.558   24 -0.104   28 -0.276    9  0.121
PIRATES      29 45 266 368 -0.071 34.999   27 -0.222   26 -0.211   30 -0.267   28 0.4650   25  0.381   29 -0.340   26 -0.194    8  0.126
ROYALS       26 47 281 385 -0.010 36.167   28 -0.237   28 -0.231   27 -0.230   27 0.4654    4  0.606   23 -0.098   29 -0.361   20 -0.101
REDS         26 47 319 394 -0.020 35.880   29 -0.242   29 -0.238   25 -0.191   29 0.4630   27  0.339   28 -0.299   21 -0.083    1  0.674
ATHLETICS    25 51 241 353  0.026 38.786   30 -0.256   30 -0.257   28 -0.246   30 0.4610   22  0.420   27 -0.285   27 -0.208   28 -0.330

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      45 28 368 243 -0.065 33.983    5  0.145    5  0.140    2  0.236    5 0.5210   29  0.188   16  0.007    1  0.466    3  0.290
PADRES       45 31 353 290 -0.043 36.232    6  0.114    6  0.119    7  0.107    7 0.5164   11  0.505    8  0.144   11  0.071   27 -0.330
GIANTS       40 33 356 315 -0.029 35.249   13  0.050   13  0.056   12  0.066   14 0.5068   15  0.474   12  0.076   13  0.057    7  0.163
DIAMONDBACKS 34 41 308 355 -0.009 37.113   22 -0.069   22 -0.080   22 -0.118   22 0.4850   10  0.527   21 -0.061   25 -0.175   14 -0.023
ROCKIES      33 42 336 399 -0.032 36.436   23 -0.107   23 -0.113   23 -0.150   23 0.4805   20  0.429   26 -0.181   22 -0.118    2  0.546

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      43 33 337 317 -0.041 36.425   10  0.067   10  0.079   18  0.012   10 0.5098   21  0.429   18 -0.019   14  0.043   16 -0.036
CARDINALS    43 34 370 299 -0.058 36.238   12  0.051   12  0.056    9  0.094   13 0.5082   17  0.447   11  0.079    8  0.109   15 -0.030
CUBS         28 46 313 392 -0.047 35.563   26 -0.221   27 -0.221   24 -0.190   26 0.4669    8  0.558   24 -0.104   28 -0.276    9  0.121
PIRATES      29 45 266 368 -0.071 34.999   27 -0.222   26 -0.211   30 -0.267   28 0.4650   25  0.381   29 -0.340   26 -0.194    8  0.126
REDS         26 47 319 394 -0.020 35.880   29 -0.242   29 -0.238   25 -0.191   29 0.4630   27  0.339   28 -0.299   21 -0.083    1  0.674

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         47 28 366 307  0.032 37.948    3  0.224    3  0.220    4  0.179    3 0.5319    7  0.574    2  0.281   10  0.078   21 -0.110
BRAVES       43 32 354 308 -0.029 36.177    8  0.087    8  0.097   10  0.083    9 0.5124   28  0.329   19 -0.034    4  0.200    4  0.286
PHILLIES     39 36 355 322  0.047 38.473   11  0.056   11  0.061    8  0.099   11 0.5085    1  0.653    3  0.275   20 -0.077   26 -0.219
MARLINS      33 40 319 315  0.025 36.904   21 -0.042   21 -0.059   17  0.014   21 0.4912   19  0.437   17 -0.010   15  0.038   11  0.057
NATIONALS    29 48 308 416  0.006 38.703   25 -0.198   25 -0.192   29 -0.249   25 0.4698    3  0.612   25 -0.113   30 -0.386   18 -0.078

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       47 27 329 251  0.030 37.355    2  0.234    2  0.232    3  0.198    2 0.5355   23  0.407    7  0.148    3  0.248   25 -0.181
RANGERS      36 37 324 310  0.012 36.495   16  0.003   16 -0.004   14  0.037   17 0.4999    2  0.642    5  0.203   23 -0.129   24 -0.180
MARINERS     35 41 297 303  0.071 39.839   18 -0.008   18 -0.017   16  0.016   19 0.4973   26  0.375   22 -0.061    9  0.094   22 -0.136
ANGELS       36 41 323 322  0.042 39.420   20 -0.014   20 -0.026   13  0.044   20 0.4962   18  0.438   13  0.021   12  0.068   13 -0.022
ATHLETICS    25 51 241 353  0.026 38.786   30 -0.256   30 -0.257   28 -0.246   30 0.4610   22  0.420   27 -0.285   27 -0.208   28 -0.330

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        43 35 350 311 -0.059 36.773   14  0.039   14  0.044   15  0.030   12 0.5082    9  0.549   10  0.107   19 -0.047   17 -0.054
GUARDIANS    37 34 312 301 -0.027 34.490   15  0.016   15  0.017   20 -0.013   15 0.5027   13  0.491   15  0.011   18 -0.037   19 -0.087
WHITE SOX    35 38 308 353  0.040 37.445   17 -0.001   17 -0.006   21 -0.036   16 0.5003   16  0.462   20 -0.037   17 -0.034    5  0.174
TIGERS       28 45 219 317  0.012 36.911   24 -0.181   24 -0.175   26 -0.215   24 0.4757   30  0.059   30 -0.541    7  0.110    6  0.168
ROYALS       26 47 281 385 -0.010 36.167   28 -0.237   28 -0.231   27 -0.230   27 0.4654    4  0.606   23 -0.098   29 -0.361   20 -0.101

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      55 20 378 229  0.018 37.351    1  0.382    1  0.386    1  0.338    1 0.5612   14  0.483    1  0.355    2  0.321   29 -0.332
BLUE JAYS    42 32 352 323  0.088 39.094    4  0.167    4  0.160    6  0.141    4 0.5277    6  0.599    4  0.265   16  0.017   12  0.033
RED SOX      42 33 358 299  0.021 37.649    7  0.101    7  0.108    5  0.144    6 0.5174   12  0.492    6  0.169    6  0.119   10  0.105
RAYS         40 33 295 278  0.018 36.622    9  0.074    9  0.085   11  0.075    8 0.5146   24  0.400   14  0.019    5  0.131   23 -0.159
ORIOLES      35 41 311 331  0.061 39.580   19 -0.014   19 -0.024   19 -0.009   18 0.4995    5  0.599    9  0.116   24 -0.133   30 -0.337

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    214 159 0.574    1  0.191
NL WEST    197 175 0.530    2  0.040
NL EAST    191 184 0.509    3  0.037
AL WEST    179 197 0.476    4  0.015
AL CENTRAL 169 199 0.459    5 -0.129
NL CENTRAL 169 205 0.452    6 -0.152

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.047 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.005 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Jun 29 05:30:07 2022
games through: Tue Jun 28 2022

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.