Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       50 24 408 288  0.035 37.880    1  0.986    1  0.244    1  0.255    1 0.5490  0.771  0.478  0.033 -0.476
DODGERS      48 26 384 261 -0.051 35.252    2  0.859    2  0.165    2  0.201    2 0.5277  0.397  0.069  0.333 -0.015
ROCKIES      47 28 395 337 -0.023 36.784    3  0.806    3  0.152    6  0.108    3 0.5271  0.385 -0.034  0.250  0.592
DIAMONDBACKS 46 27 388 282 -0.045 35.037    4  0.795    4  0.143    4  0.156    4 0.5268  0.272 -0.080  0.392  0.517
INDIANS      39 32 343 287  0.064 37.310    5  0.660    5  0.094    5  0.143    5 0.5225  0.355 -0.024  0.310  0.163
YANKEES      39 31 399 297  0.008 35.193    6  0.619    6  0.076    3  0.187    6 0.5189  0.585  0.225  0.149  0.198
RED SOX      40 32 336 306  0.009 36.344    7  0.599    7  0.075   10  0.053    7 0.5169  0.464 -0.020  0.126 -0.081
NATIONALS    43 29 398 322 -0.118 32.651    8  0.577    8  0.063    8  0.059   11 0.5093  0.733  0.243 -0.125 -0.110
RAYS         39 36 360 341  0.047 38.997    9  0.549    9  0.049    7  0.063    8 0.5106  0.570  0.088  0.039 -0.097
MARINERS     38 37 365 367  0.051 39.188   10  0.528   11  0.035   11  0.033   10 0.5096  0.660  0.144 -0.078 -0.086
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TWINS        36 34 325 374  0.042 36.396   11  0.527   10  0.038   20 -0.031    9 0.5100  0.573 -0.004 -0.058  0.272
ANGELS       38 38 331 328  0.051 39.693   12  0.512   13  0.027   13  0.023   13 0.5073  0.369 -0.133  0.178  0.027
ROYALS       35 36 282 316  0.070 37.704   13  0.511   12  0.027   16 -0.016   12 0.5078  0.403 -0.143  0.111 -0.112
ORIOLES      35 37 323 386  0.083 38.647   14  0.502   14  0.023   21 -0.066   15 0.5046  0.735  0.119 -0.252 -0.208
RANGERS      36 36 359 337  0.022 36.701   15  0.489   15  0.012    9  0.058   14 0.5061  0.570  0.082  0.034  0.179
BREWERS      40 35 359 350 -0.073 35.494   16  0.482   16  0.005   17 -0.020   19 0.4976  0.477 -0.081  0.042  0.230
BLUE JAYS    35 37 310 336  0.036 37.245   17  0.476   17  0.000   18 -0.022   16 0.5006  0.446 -0.111  0.067 -0.019
CUBS         37 35 343 317 -0.058 34.495   18  0.462   18 -0.013   15 -0.008   20 0.4937  0.574  0.020 -0.035 -0.041
TIGERS       32 40 347 366  0.084 38.603   19  0.442   19 -0.028   14 -0.003   18 0.4982  0.670  0.117 -0.124  0.055
WHITE SOX    32 39 332 323  0.052 37.119   20  0.438   20 -0.036   12  0.032   17 0.4987  0.463 -0.042  0.106  0.129
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ATHLETICS    31 42 313 398  0.105 39.863   21  0.426   21 -0.043   24 -0.081   21 0.4936  0.515 -0.109 -0.054  0.176
CARDINALS    33 38 308 320 -0.035 34.705   22  0.395   22 -0.062   19 -0.029   22 0.4839  0.528 -0.044 -0.013 -0.331
PIRATES      33 40 309 343 -0.030 35.933   23  0.363   23 -0.076   25 -0.088   23 0.4817  0.448 -0.176 -0.000 -0.067
MARLINS      32 39 332 352 -0.057 34.141   24  0.333   24 -0.091   22 -0.074   24 0.4803  0.673  0.049 -0.197 -0.136
BRAVES       34 38 344 374 -0.137 32.421   25  0.288   25 -0.105   27 -0.148   26 0.4756  0.713  0.015 -0.312 -0.088
PADRES       29 44 261 378  0.034 37.993   26  0.256   26 -0.114   29 -0.186   25 0.4782  0.360 -0.350 -0.023  0.075
REDS         30 41 349 379 -0.061 34.052   27  0.225   27 -0.128   23 -0.076   27 0.4719  0.836  0.214 -0.367 -0.031
METS         31 41 342 395 -0.097 33.593   28  0.198   28 -0.138   26 -0.139   28 0.4707  0.839  0.154 -0.433 -0.301
GIANTS       27 48 285 376  0.010 38.283   29  0.099   29 -0.175   28 -0.183   29 0.4671  0.595 -0.135 -0.230 -0.558
PHILLIES     23 48 275 369 -0.031 35.098   30  0.000   30 -0.238   30 -0.213   30 0.4508  0.370 -0.368 -0.058  0.141

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS      48 26 384 261 -0.051 35.252    2  0.859    2  0.165    2  0.201    2 0.5277  0.397  0.069  0.333 -0.015
ROCKIES      47 28 395 337 -0.023 36.784    3  0.806    3  0.152    6  0.108    3 0.5271  0.385 -0.034  0.250  0.592
DIAMONDBACKS 46 27 388 282 -0.045 35.037    4  0.795    4  0.143    4  0.156    4 0.5268  0.272 -0.080  0.392  0.517
PADRES       29 44 261 378  0.034 37.993   26  0.256   26 -0.114   29 -0.186   25 0.4782  0.360 -0.350 -0.023  0.075
GIANTS       27 48 285 376  0.010 38.283   29  0.099   29 -0.175   28 -0.183   29 0.4671  0.595 -0.135 -0.230 -0.558

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      40 35 359 350 -0.073 35.494   16  0.482   16  0.005   17 -0.020   19 0.4976  0.477 -0.081  0.042  0.230
CUBS         37 35 343 317 -0.058 34.495   18  0.462   18 -0.013   15 -0.008   20 0.4937  0.574  0.020 -0.035 -0.041
CARDINALS    33 38 308 320 -0.035 34.705   22  0.395   22 -0.062   19 -0.029   22 0.4839  0.528 -0.044 -0.013 -0.331
PIRATES      33 40 309 343 -0.030 35.933   23  0.363   23 -0.076   25 -0.088   23 0.4817  0.448 -0.176 -0.000 -0.067
REDS         30 41 349 379 -0.061 34.052   27  0.225   27 -0.128   23 -0.076   27 0.4719  0.836  0.214 -0.367 -0.031

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
NATIONALS    43 29 398 322 -0.118 32.651    8  0.577    8  0.063    8  0.059   11 0.5093  0.733  0.243 -0.125 -0.110
MARLINS      32 39 332 352 -0.057 34.141   24  0.333   24 -0.091   22 -0.074   24 0.4803  0.673  0.049 -0.197 -0.136
BRAVES       34 38 344 374 -0.137 32.421   25  0.288   25 -0.105   27 -0.148   26 0.4756  0.713  0.015 -0.312 -0.088
METS         31 41 342 395 -0.097 33.593   28  0.198   28 -0.138   26 -0.139   28 0.4707  0.839  0.154 -0.433 -0.301
PHILLIES     23 48 275 369 -0.031 35.098   30  0.000   30 -0.238   30 -0.213   30 0.4508  0.370 -0.368 -0.058  0.141

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       50 24 408 288  0.035 37.880    1  0.986    1  0.244    1  0.255    1 0.5490  0.771  0.478  0.033 -0.476
MARINERS     38 37 365 367  0.051 39.188   10  0.528   11  0.035   11  0.033   10 0.5096  0.660  0.144 -0.078 -0.086
ANGELS       38 38 331 328  0.051 39.693   12  0.512   13  0.027   13  0.023   13 0.5073  0.369 -0.133  0.178  0.027
RANGERS      36 36 359 337  0.022 36.701   15  0.489   15  0.012    9  0.058   14 0.5061  0.570  0.082  0.034  0.179
ATHLETICS    31 42 313 398  0.105 39.863   21  0.426   21 -0.043   24 -0.081   21 0.4936  0.515 -0.109 -0.054  0.176

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS      39 32 343 287  0.064 37.310    5  0.660    5  0.094    5  0.143    5 0.5225  0.355 -0.024  0.310  0.163
TWINS        36 34 325 374  0.042 36.396   11  0.527   10  0.038   20 -0.031    9 0.5100  0.573 -0.004 -0.058  0.272
ROYALS       35 36 282 316  0.070 37.704   13  0.511   12  0.027   16 -0.016   12 0.5078  0.403 -0.143  0.111 -0.112
TIGERS       32 40 347 366  0.084 38.603   19  0.442   19 -0.028   14 -0.003   18 0.4982  0.670  0.117 -0.124  0.055
WHITE SOX    32 39 332 323  0.052 37.119   20  0.438   20 -0.036   12  0.032   17 0.4987  0.463 -0.042  0.106  0.129

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
YANKEES      39 31 399 297  0.008 35.193    6  0.619    6  0.076    3  0.187    6 0.5189  0.585  0.225  0.149  0.198
RED SOX      40 32 336 306  0.009 36.344    7  0.599    7  0.075   10  0.053    7 0.5169  0.464 -0.020  0.126 -0.081
RAYS         39 36 360 341  0.047 38.997    9  0.549    9  0.049    7  0.063    8 0.5106  0.570  0.088  0.039 -0.097
ORIOLES      35 37 323 386  0.083 38.647   14  0.502   14  0.023   21 -0.066   15 0.5046  0.735  0.119 -0.252 -0.208
BLUE JAYS    35 37 310 336  0.036 37.245   17  0.476   17  0.000   18 -0.022   16 0.5006  0.446 -0.111  0.067 -0.019

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    193 177 0.522    1  0.093
AL EAST    188 173 0.521    2  0.071
AL CENTRAL 174 181 0.490    3  0.041
NL WEST    197 173 0.532    4  0.032
NL CENTRAL 173 189 0.478    5 -0.072
NL EAST    163 195 0.455    6 -0.169

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.093 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Jun 23 05:30:12 2017
games through: Thu Jun 22 2017

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