Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      38 16 312 193  0.003 26.985    1  0.261    1  0.258    1  0.312    1 0.5496   22  0.445    3  0.232    2  0.392   17 -0.027
RAYS         35 19 262 211 -0.025 26.678    2  0.182    3  0.173    7  0.117    2 0.5336   26  0.376   19 -0.023    6  0.257   16 -0.025
WHITE SOX    34 19 276 201 -0.007 26.440    3  0.182    2  0.173    3  0.192    3 0.5330   13  0.555    5  0.212    8  0.173   20 -0.085
PADRES       34 20 300 216  0.014 27.241    4  0.176    4  0.168    2  0.210    4 0.5327   15  0.545    4  0.221    7  0.200   19 -0.058
TWINS        33 22 245 190  0.029 28.262    5  0.144    5  0.141    4  0.171    5 0.5266   25  0.390   14  0.042    4  0.299   24 -0.229
BRAVES       31 22 310 251 -0.014 26.431    6  0.090    6  0.098    5  0.128    7 0.5177    8  0.672    1  0.260   12 -0.003   11  0.125
YANKEES      31 22 282 227 -0.019 26.304    7  0.089    7  0.097    6  0.123    6 0.5188   27  0.375   18 -0.018    5  0.264    4  0.400
ATHLETICS    33 20 252 196 -0.121 24.183    8  0.085    8  0.093    9  0.084    8 0.5173   19  0.508   13  0.061    9  0.107   28 -0.432
CUBS         31 22 232 211 -0.056 25.592    9  0.067    9  0.078   10  0.041    9 0.5146   10  0.631    9  0.133   17 -0.051   29 -0.479
INDIANS      29 24 216 179  0.024 27.217   10  0.060   10  0.070    8  0.104   10 0.5142   29  0.115   27 -0.243    1  0.451   13  0.080
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS       26 26 265 260  0.068 27.685   11  0.025   11  0.034   11  0.027   11 0.5065   12  0.587   12  0.076   14 -0.023    5  0.213
MARLINS      28 25 237 263 -0.022 26.416   12  0.015   12  0.024   19 -0.049   13 0.5025    5  0.737    8  0.147   27 -0.246   27 -0.407
BLUE JAYS    27 26 252 279  0.011 27.119   13  0.009   13  0.016   17 -0.039   12 0.5039   16  0.532   21 -0.041   16 -0.037    9  0.168
PHILLIES     27 26 278 275 -0.024 26.309   14 -0.001   14 -0.001   12  0.006   15 0.4991    2  0.778    2  0.245   26 -0.234   22 -0.125
CARDINALS    26 24 213 202 -0.053 24.239   15 -0.003   15 -0.002   13 -0.007   14 0.4992   21  0.467   22 -0.067   10  0.054   12  0.083
ASTROS       27 26 249 242 -0.054 25.695   16 -0.014   16 -0.016   14 -0.012   16 0.4968    3  0.751    7  0.200   25 -0.223   30 -0.489
BREWERS      26 26 229 232 -0.041 25.538   17 -0.017   17 -0.020   18 -0.048   17 0.4956    7  0.684   11  0.096   23 -0.192   21 -0.125
REDS         27 27 214 224 -0.069 25.894   18 -0.030   19 -0.035   21 -0.053   19 0.4930   30  0.098   30 -0.413    3  0.307    3  0.448
ROCKIES      23 29 241 306  0.075 28.053   19 -0.030   18 -0.034   23 -0.076   18 0.4931   18  0.510   24 -0.097   18 -0.054    1  0.557
METS         24 29 261 270  0.008 27.042   20 -0.050   20 -0.055   16 -0.039   20 0.4883   11  0.603   15  0.026   21 -0.104   14 -0.014
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       22 30 225 289  0.076 28.047   21 -0.054   21 -0.059   26 -0.113   21 0.4882    1  0.857    6  0.210   30 -0.436   23 -0.138
ROYALS       21 32 215 249  0.101 29.063   22 -0.068   22 -0.079   20 -0.052   22 0.4853   20  0.497   23 -0.085   13 -0.018   10  0.146
ORIOLES      23 31 243 256  0.012 27.638   23 -0.077   23 -0.087   15 -0.037   23 0.4850   17  0.531   20 -0.040   15 -0.035   18 -0.045
MARINERS     23 30 224 281 -0.027 26.503   24 -0.085   24 -0.093   28 -0.159   25 0.4806    6  0.713   16  0.014   29 -0.333   25 -0.240
DIAMONDBACKS 20 34 226 274  0.123 30.139   25 -0.092   25 -0.103   24 -0.083   24 0.4815   24  0.404   26 -0.199   11  0.033    7  0.206
ANGELS       23 31 266 291 -0.065 26.066   26 -0.122   26 -0.126   25 -0.101   26 0.4769    9  0.642   17  0.002   24 -0.204    6  0.211
NATIONALS    20 32 246 266  0.030 27.023   27 -0.123   27 -0.126   22 -0.067   27 0.4758    4  0.739   10  0.132   28 -0.266   26 -0.355
RED SOX      20 34 250 323  0.044 28.419   28 -0.146   28 -0.142   27 -0.144   28 0.4749   14  0.551   25 -0.129   22 -0.160    2  0.460
RANGERS      19 34 193 269 -0.028 26.505   29 -0.200   29 -0.190   29 -0.206   29 0.4643   23  0.409   28 -0.317   20 -0.094   15 -0.015
PIRATES      15 38 190 278  0.004 27.166   30 -0.272   30 -0.270   30 -0.242   30 0.4491   28  0.342   29 -0.410   19 -0.073    8  0.186

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      38 16 312 193  0.003 26.985    1  0.261    1  0.258    1  0.312    1 0.5496   22  0.445    3  0.232    2  0.392   17 -0.027
PADRES       34 20 300 216  0.014 27.241    4  0.176    4  0.168    2  0.210    4 0.5327   15  0.545    4  0.221    7  0.200   19 -0.058
GIANTS       26 26 265 260  0.068 27.685   11  0.025   11  0.034   11  0.027   11 0.5065   12  0.587   12  0.076   14 -0.023    5  0.213
ROCKIES      23 29 241 306  0.075 28.053   19 -0.030   18 -0.034   23 -0.076   18 0.4931   18  0.510   24 -0.097   18 -0.054    1  0.557
DIAMONDBACKS 20 34 226 274  0.123 30.139   25 -0.092   25 -0.103   24 -0.083   24 0.4815   24  0.404   26 -0.199   11  0.033    7  0.206

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         31 22 232 211 -0.056 25.592    9  0.067    9  0.078   10  0.041    9 0.5146   10  0.631    9  0.133   17 -0.051   29 -0.479
CARDINALS    26 24 213 202 -0.053 24.239   15 -0.003   15 -0.002   13 -0.007   14 0.4992   21  0.467   22 -0.067   10  0.054   12  0.083
BREWERS      26 26 229 232 -0.041 25.538   17 -0.017   17 -0.020   18 -0.048   17 0.4956    7  0.684   11  0.096   23 -0.192   21 -0.125
REDS         27 27 214 224 -0.069 25.894   18 -0.030   19 -0.035   21 -0.053   19 0.4930   30  0.098   30 -0.413    3  0.307    3  0.448
PIRATES      15 38 190 278  0.004 27.166   30 -0.272   30 -0.270   30 -0.242   30 0.4491   28  0.342   29 -0.410   19 -0.073    8  0.186

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       31 22 310 251 -0.014 26.431    6  0.090    6  0.098    5  0.128    7 0.5177    8  0.672    1  0.260   12 -0.003   11  0.125
MARLINS      28 25 237 263 -0.022 26.416   12  0.015   12  0.024   19 -0.049   13 0.5025    5  0.737    8  0.147   27 -0.246   27 -0.407
PHILLIES     27 26 278 275 -0.024 26.309   14 -0.001   14 -0.001   12  0.006   15 0.4991    2  0.778    2  0.245   26 -0.234   22 -0.125
METS         24 29 261 270  0.008 27.042   20 -0.050   20 -0.055   16 -0.039   20 0.4883   11  0.603   15  0.026   21 -0.104   14 -0.014
NATIONALS    20 32 246 266  0.030 27.023   27 -0.123   27 -0.126   22 -0.067   27 0.4758    4  0.739   10  0.132   28 -0.266   26 -0.355

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATHLETICS    33 20 252 196 -0.121 24.183    8  0.085    8  0.093    9  0.084    8 0.5173   19  0.508   13  0.061    9  0.107   28 -0.432
ASTROS       27 26 249 242 -0.054 25.695   16 -0.014   16 -0.016   14 -0.012   16 0.4968    3  0.751    7  0.200   25 -0.223   30 -0.489
MARINERS     23 30 224 281 -0.027 26.503   24 -0.085   24 -0.093   28 -0.159   25 0.4806    6  0.713   16  0.014   29 -0.333   25 -0.240
ANGELS       23 31 266 291 -0.065 26.066   26 -0.122   26 -0.126   25 -0.101   26 0.4769    9  0.642   17  0.002   24 -0.204    6  0.211
RANGERS      19 34 193 269 -0.028 26.505   29 -0.200   29 -0.190   29 -0.206   29 0.4643   23  0.409   28 -0.317   20 -0.094   15 -0.015

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WHITE SOX    34 19 276 201 -0.007 26.440    3  0.182    2  0.173    3  0.192    3 0.5330   13  0.555    5  0.212    8  0.173   20 -0.085
TWINS        33 22 245 190  0.029 28.262    5  0.144    5  0.141    4  0.171    5 0.5266   25  0.390   14  0.042    4  0.299   24 -0.229
INDIANS      29 24 216 179  0.024 27.217   10  0.060   10  0.070    8  0.104   10 0.5142   29  0.115   27 -0.243    1  0.451   13  0.080
TIGERS       22 30 225 289  0.076 28.047   21 -0.054   21 -0.059   26 -0.113   21 0.4882    1  0.857    6  0.210   30 -0.436   23 -0.138
ROYALS       21 32 215 249  0.101 29.063   22 -0.068   22 -0.079   20 -0.052   22 0.4853   20  0.497   23 -0.085   13 -0.018   10  0.146

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAYS         35 19 262 211 -0.025 26.678    2  0.182    3  0.173    7  0.117    2 0.5336   26  0.376   19 -0.023    6  0.257   16 -0.025
YANKEES      31 22 282 227 -0.019 26.304    7  0.089    7  0.097    6  0.123    6 0.5188   27  0.375   18 -0.018    5  0.264    4  0.400
BLUE JAYS    27 26 252 279  0.011 27.119   13  0.009   13  0.016   17 -0.039   12 0.5039   16  0.532   21 -0.041   16 -0.037    9  0.168
ORIOLES      23 31 243 256  0.012 27.638   23 -0.077   23 -0.087   15 -0.037   23 0.4850   17  0.531   20 -0.040   15 -0.035   18 -0.045
RED SOX      20 34 250 323  0.044 28.419   28 -0.146   28 -0.142   27 -0.144   28 0.4749   14  0.551   25 -0.129   22 -0.160    2  0.460

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    141 125 0.530    1  0.129
AL CENTRAL 139 127 0.523    2  0.099
AL EAST    136 132 0.507    3  0.007
NL EAST    130 134 0.492    4 -0.007
NL CENTRAL 125 137 0.477    5 -0.100
AL WEST    125 141 0.470    6 -0.132

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.086 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.009 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Mon Sep 21 05:30:41 2020
games through: Sun Sep 20 2020

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.