Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      53 32 477 387 -0.023 40.962    1  0.185    1  0.159    4  0.129    1 0.5273   10  0.625    5  0.276   18 -0.018    4  0.298
TIGERS       53 32 424 325 -0.025 40.906    2  0.185    2  0.159    3  0.163    2 0.5270   14  0.577    6  0.265   13  0.061   23 -0.137
CUBS         49 35 453 349  0.021 41.937    3  0.139    3  0.128    1  0.178    4 0.5226    9  0.627    2  0.328   16  0.029   13  0.042
ASTROS       50 34 350 304 -0.007 41.130    4  0.135    4  0.127    7  0.092    3 0.5228   19  0.357   15 -0.003    5  0.187   19 -0.058
PHILLIES     50 35 390 340 -0.021 41.103    5  0.111    5  0.112    9  0.086    5 0.5192   28  0.186   22 -0.147    1  0.319    2  0.458
YANKEES      48 36 426 314 -0.027 40.326    6  0.070    6  0.083    2  0.171    6 0.5163   17  0.395   12  0.109    3  0.234    9  0.111
METS         48 37 368 329 -0.014 41.385    7  0.066    7  0.083   10  0.060    8 0.5130   20  0.352   17 -0.039    8  0.159   25 -0.184
CARDINALS    47 39 403 365  0.032 43.474    8  0.065    8  0.082    8  0.088    7 0.5142    6  0.668    3  0.277   21 -0.101   24 -0.168
BREWERS      47 37 397 341 -0.000 41.315    9  0.065    9  0.081    6  0.094   10 0.5117    2  0.743    1  0.357   23 -0.170   30 -0.532
RAYS         47 38 407 338 -0.012 41.399   10  0.048   11  0.066    5  0.102   11 0.5112   11  0.595    8  0.221   17 -0.017   21 -0.097
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    46 38 370 373  0.009 41.764   11  0.048   10  0.070   16  0.017    9 0.5129   18  0.382   19 -0.057   11  0.091    6  0.228
PADRES       45 39 345 332  0.009 41.716   12  0.033   12  0.055   12  0.028   12 0.5094   23  0.300   20 -0.114    7  0.171   18 -0.051
REDS         44 41 393 360  0.010 42.231   13  0.015   13  0.030   11  0.053   15 0.5036   12  0.592   11  0.169   20 -0.062   20 -0.087
MARINERS     44 40 386 369 -0.013 41.026   14  0.012   14  0.025   18  0.013   13 0.5057    8  0.637   10  0.172   22 -0.146   26 -0.301
GIANTS       45 40 351 321 -0.029 40.919   15  0.012   15  0.024   13  0.027   14 0.5039   27  0.238   23 -0.166    4  0.219   17 -0.044
DIAMONDBACKS 42 42 436 432  0.002 41.490   16 -0.001   16  0.000   15  0.022   18 0.4990    3  0.734    4  0.276   26 -0.233   11  0.077
RED SOX      42 44 412 395  0.009 42.749   17 -0.007   19 -0.011   14  0.024   19 0.4973    5  0.676    7  0.221   24 -0.173   12  0.059
GUARDIANS    40 42 303 350  0.017 41.112   18 -0.007   17 -0.008   22 -0.073   16 0.4999   22  0.335   25 -0.186   14  0.041   14 -0.028
ANGELS       41 42 359 408 -0.002 41.037   19 -0.008   18 -0.009   24 -0.087   17 0.4998   13  0.590   14  0.028   25 -0.201   16 -0.036
TWINS        40 44 356 370  0.001 41.524   20 -0.020   20 -0.032   20 -0.009   20 0.4954   15  0.412   18 -0.057   15  0.039    7  0.213
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      41 44 314 302 -0.019 41.329   21 -0.021   21 -0.035   19 -0.006   21 0.4930   26  0.243   26 -0.194    6  0.183   29 -0.375
ROYALS       39 46 279 316  0.013 42.550   22 -0.033   22 -0.049   23 -0.073   22 0.4902   25  0.281   27 -0.231   12  0.085   28 -0.366
BRAVES       38 45 339 327  0.001 40.998   23 -0.040   23 -0.057   17  0.015   23 0.4901   24  0.298   21 -0.129    9  0.159   15 -0.034
MARLINS      37 45 353 427  0.007 40.883   24 -0.053   24 -0.065   26 -0.123   24 0.4879    1  0.815    9  0.215   30 -0.462   27 -0.351
PIRATES      36 50 304 339  0.065 44.758   25 -0.059   25 -0.077   21 -0.029   25 0.4872   30  0.066   28 -0.351    2  0.293    8  0.143
ORIOLES      37 47 355 428  0.009 41.910   26 -0.059   26 -0.077   25 -0.112   26 0.4861   16  0.405   24 -0.166   19 -0.058    3  0.373
NATIONALS    35 49 366 434 -0.028 40.775   27 -0.134   27 -0.131   28 -0.151   27 0.4779    4  0.694   13  0.064   28 -0.366   22 -0.119
ATHLETICS    35 52 360 500  0.000 43.243   28 -0.144   28 -0.137   29 -0.193   28 0.4775    7  0.660   16 -0.011   29 -0.374    5  0.257
WHITE SOX    28 56 287 367  0.004 41.769   29 -0.238   29 -0.229   27 -0.147   29 0.4606   29  0.172   29 -0.390   10  0.097   10  0.106
ROCKIES      19 65 295 516  0.038 43.198   30 -0.366   30 -0.367   30 -0.372   30 0.4368   21  0.340   30 -0.481   27 -0.263    1  0.600

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      53 32 477 387 -0.023 40.962    1  0.185    1  0.159    4  0.129    1 0.5273   10  0.625    5  0.276   18 -0.018    4  0.298
PADRES       45 39 345 332  0.009 41.716   12  0.033   12  0.055   12  0.028   12 0.5094   23  0.300   20 -0.114    7  0.171   18 -0.051
GIANTS       45 40 351 321 -0.029 40.919   15  0.012   15  0.024   13  0.027   14 0.5039   27  0.238   23 -0.166    4  0.219   17 -0.044
DIAMONDBACKS 42 42 436 432  0.002 41.490   16 -0.001   16  0.000   15  0.022   18 0.4990    3  0.734    4  0.276   26 -0.233   11  0.077
ROCKIES      19 65 295 516  0.038 43.198   30 -0.366   30 -0.367   30 -0.372   30 0.4368   21  0.340   30 -0.481   27 -0.263    1  0.600

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         49 35 453 349  0.021 41.937    3  0.139    3  0.128    1  0.178    4 0.5226    9  0.627    2  0.328   16  0.029   13  0.042
CARDINALS    47 39 403 365  0.032 43.474    8  0.065    8  0.082    8  0.088    7 0.5142    6  0.668    3  0.277   21 -0.101   24 -0.168
BREWERS      47 37 397 341 -0.000 41.315    9  0.065    9  0.081    6  0.094   10 0.5117    2  0.743    1  0.357   23 -0.170   30 -0.532
REDS         44 41 393 360  0.010 42.231   13  0.015   13  0.030   11  0.053   15 0.5036   12  0.592   11  0.169   20 -0.062   20 -0.087
PIRATES      36 50 304 339  0.065 44.758   25 -0.059   25 -0.077   21 -0.029   25 0.4872   30  0.066   28 -0.351    2  0.293    8  0.143

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     50 35 390 340 -0.021 41.103    5  0.111    5  0.112    9  0.086    5 0.5192   28  0.186   22 -0.147    1  0.319    2  0.458
METS         48 37 368 329 -0.014 41.385    7  0.066    7  0.083   10  0.060    8 0.5130   20  0.352   17 -0.039    8  0.159   25 -0.184
BRAVES       38 45 339 327  0.001 40.998   23 -0.040   23 -0.057   17  0.015   23 0.4901   24  0.298   21 -0.129    9  0.159   15 -0.034
MARLINS      37 45 353 427  0.007 40.883   24 -0.053   24 -0.065   26 -0.123   24 0.4879    1  0.815    9  0.215   30 -0.462   27 -0.351
NATIONALS    35 49 366 434 -0.028 40.775   27 -0.134   27 -0.131   28 -0.151   27 0.4779    4  0.694   13  0.064   28 -0.366   22 -0.119

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       50 34 350 304 -0.007 41.130    4  0.135    4  0.127    7  0.092    3 0.5228   19  0.357   15 -0.003    5  0.187   19 -0.058
MARINERS     44 40 386 369 -0.013 41.026   14  0.012   14  0.025   18  0.013   13 0.5057    8  0.637   10  0.172   22 -0.146   26 -0.301
ANGELS       41 42 359 408 -0.002 41.037   19 -0.008   18 -0.009   24 -0.087   17 0.4998   13  0.590   14  0.028   25 -0.201   16 -0.036
RANGERS      41 44 314 302 -0.019 41.329   21 -0.021   21 -0.035   19 -0.006   21 0.4930   26  0.243   26 -0.194    6  0.183   29 -0.375
ATHLETICS    35 52 360 500  0.000 43.243   28 -0.144   28 -0.137   29 -0.193   28 0.4775    7  0.660   16 -0.011   29 -0.374    5  0.257

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       53 32 424 325 -0.025 40.906    2  0.185    2  0.159    3  0.163    2 0.5270   14  0.577    6  0.265   13  0.061   23 -0.137
GUARDIANS    40 42 303 350  0.017 41.112   18 -0.007   17 -0.008   22 -0.073   16 0.4999   22  0.335   25 -0.186   14  0.041   14 -0.028
TWINS        40 44 356 370  0.001 41.524   20 -0.020   20 -0.032   20 -0.009   20 0.4954   15  0.412   18 -0.057   15  0.039    7  0.213
ROYALS       39 46 279 316  0.013 42.550   22 -0.033   22 -0.049   23 -0.073   22 0.4902   25  0.281   27 -0.231   12  0.085   28 -0.366
WHITE SOX    28 56 287 367  0.004 41.769   29 -0.238   29 -0.229   27 -0.147   29 0.4606   29  0.172   29 -0.390   10  0.097   10  0.106

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      48 36 426 314 -0.027 40.326    6  0.070    6  0.083    2  0.171    6 0.5163   17  0.395   12  0.109    3  0.234    9  0.111
RAYS         47 38 407 338 -0.012 41.399   10  0.048   11  0.066    5  0.102   11 0.5112   11  0.595    8  0.221   17 -0.017   21 -0.097
BLUE JAYS    46 38 370 373  0.009 41.764   11  0.048   10  0.070   16  0.017    9 0.5129   18  0.382   19 -0.057   11  0.091    6  0.228
RED SOX      42 44 412 395  0.009 42.749   17 -0.007   19 -0.011   14  0.024   19 0.4973    5  0.676    7  0.221   24 -0.173   12  0.059
ORIOLES      37 47 355 428  0.009 41.910   26 -0.059   26 -0.077   25 -0.112   26 0.4861   16  0.405   24 -0.166   19 -0.058    3  0.373

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 223 202 0.525    1  0.118
AL EAST    220 203 0.520    2  0.062
NL EAST    208 211 0.496    3 -0.035
AL CENTRAL 200 220 0.476    4 -0.043
NL WEST    204 218 0.483    5 -0.047
AL WEST    211 212 0.499    6 -0.054

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.075 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Jul  1 05:30:06 2025
games through: Mon Jun 30 2025

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