Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Predictive-Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Predictive-Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Predictive-Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Home Scoring. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home. Values are nonzero only for baseball, where park effects can be significant.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      115  56 932 682 -0.025 82.655    1  1.454    1  0.325    2  0.260    1 0.5393  0.526  0.295  0.225  0.132
ASTROS       107  63 839 569 -0.004 83.648    2  1.387    2  0.254    1  0.298    2 0.5323  0.321  0.153  0.442  0.003
BREWERS      102  70 790 679  0.018 86.566    3  1.349    3  0.197    6  0.148    4 0.5239  0.401  0.071  0.225  0.026
YANKEES      102  65 872 698 -0.033 80.412    4  1.337    4  0.190    4  0.195    3 0.5244  0.470  0.178  0.211  0.226
ATHLETICS     97  66 815 681 -0.009 80.166    5  1.316    5  0.180    5  0.153    5 0.5229  0.668  0.323 -0.017 -0.283
CUBS          95  69 762 647  0.004 81.658    6  1.260    6  0.158    7  0.132    7 0.5195  0.374  0.032  0.233  0.130
DODGERS       98  75 842 641  0.026 87.609    7  1.257    7  0.152    3  0.230    6 0.5197  0.553  0.289  0.170 -0.244
ROCKIES       92  75 784 759  0.043 85.857    8  1.137    8  0.132   12  0.083    8 0.5162  0.401  0.006  0.160  0.450
MARINERS      89  73 677 711  0.012 81.437    9  1.020    9  0.106   17 -0.015    9 0.5132  0.540  0.032 -0.063 -0.285
BRAVES        91  75 767 677  0.010 83.047   10  1.002   10  0.101    8  0.107   10 0.5127  0.401  0.031  0.184  0.126
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
CARDINALS     88  74 759 691  0.008 80.992   11  0.964   11  0.089   11  0.086   12 0.5112  0.614  0.203 -0.032 -0.151
RAYS          90  72 716 646 -0.027 78.633   12  0.956   12  0.086   14  0.064   11 0.5113  0.406 -0.008  0.137 -0.112
DIAMONDBACKS  82  80 693 644  0.038 82.923   13  0.876   13  0.042   10  0.093   13 0.5054  0.331 -0.043  0.230  0.086
INDIANS       91  74 824 669 -0.087 76.061   14  0.869   14  0.033    9  0.104   15 0.5029  0.364 -0.004  0.213  0.247
PIRATES       82  79 692 693  0.016 81.097   15  0.866   15  0.031   15  0.022   14 0.5037  0.537  0.067 -0.022 -0.199
NATIONALS     82  80 771 682 -0.002 80.310   16  0.855   16  0.010   13  0.071   16 0.5017  0.481  0.064  0.077  0.133
ANGELS        80  82 721 722  0.012 81.417   17  0.849   17 -0.003   16 -0.007   17 0.5006  0.504  0.008 -0.021 -0.021
PHILLIES      80  82 677 728  0.010 81.290   18  0.848   18 -0.005   19 -0.034   18 0.4992  0.477 -0.044 -0.024 -0.024
METS          77  85 676 707  0.015 81.615   19  0.829   19 -0.037   18 -0.027   19 0.4956  0.701  0.175 -0.230 -0.598
GIANTS        73  89 603 699  0.055 84.241   20  0.810   20 -0.054   20 -0.060   20 0.4932  0.310 -0.213  0.094  0.004
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
TWINS         78  84 738 775 -0.071 76.206   21  0.727   21 -0.092   21 -0.089   22 0.4870  0.544 -0.038 -0.141  0.085
BLUE JAYS     73  89 709 832 -0.005 80.685   22  0.690   22 -0.101   25 -0.161   21 0.4879  0.649 -0.010 -0.313 -0.059
PADRES        66  96 617 767  0.057 84.448   23  0.544   23 -0.137   24 -0.134   23 0.4828  0.412 -0.201 -0.066  0.052
REDS          67  95 696 819  0.038 83.206   24  0.540   24 -0.139   22 -0.118   24 0.4827  0.535 -0.075 -0.162  0.169
RANGERS       67  95 737 848  0.021 82.236   25  0.490   25 -0.153   23 -0.130   25 0.4822  0.428 -0.184 -0.077  0.538
MARLINS       63  98 589 809  0.038 82.834   26  0.410   26 -0.184   26 -0.216   26 0.4769  0.738  0.025 -0.456 -0.612
TIGERS        64  98 630 796 -0.059 77.350   27  0.348   27 -0.253   27 -0.262   27 0.4671  0.463 -0.284 -0.239 -0.040
WHITE SOX     62 100 656 848 -0.053 77.693   28  0.338   28 -0.272   28 -0.267   28 0.4647  0.556 -0.205 -0.329  0.003
ROYALS        58 104 638 833 -0.055 77.562   29  0.281   29 -0.323   29 -0.271   29 0.4590  0.439 -0.315 -0.227  0.159
ORIOLES       47 115 622 892  0.015 82.278   30  0.000   30 -0.406   30 -0.327   30 0.4520  0.513 -0.304 -0.349  0.058

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
DODGERS       98  75 842 641  0.026 87.609    7  1.257    7  0.152    3  0.230    6 0.5197  0.553  0.289  0.170 -0.244
ROCKIES       92  75 784 759  0.043 85.857    8  1.137    8  0.132   12  0.083    8 0.5162  0.401  0.006  0.160  0.450
DIAMONDBACKS  82  80 693 644  0.038 82.923   13  0.876   13  0.042   10  0.093   13 0.5054  0.331 -0.043  0.230  0.086
GIANTS        73  89 603 699  0.055 84.241   20  0.810   20 -0.054   20 -0.060   20 0.4932  0.310 -0.213  0.094  0.004
PADRES        66  96 617 767  0.057 84.448   23  0.544   23 -0.137   24 -0.134   23 0.4828  0.412 -0.201 -0.066  0.052

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BREWERS      102  70 790 679  0.018 86.566    3  1.349    3  0.197    6  0.148    4 0.5239  0.401  0.071  0.225  0.026
CUBS          95  69 762 647  0.004 81.658    6  1.260    6  0.158    7  0.132    7 0.5195  0.374  0.032  0.233  0.130
CARDINALS     88  74 759 691  0.008 80.992   11  0.964   11  0.089   11  0.086   12 0.5112  0.614  0.203 -0.032 -0.151
PIRATES       82  79 692 693  0.016 81.097   15  0.866   15  0.031   15  0.022   14 0.5037  0.537  0.067 -0.022 -0.199
REDS          67  95 696 819  0.038 83.206   24  0.540   24 -0.139   22 -0.118   24 0.4827  0.535 -0.075 -0.162  0.169

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
BRAVES        91  75 767 677  0.010 83.047   10  1.002   10  0.101    8  0.107   10 0.5127  0.401  0.031  0.184  0.126
NATIONALS     82  80 771 682 -0.002 80.310   16  0.855   16  0.010   13  0.071   16 0.5017  0.481  0.064  0.077  0.133
PHILLIES      80  82 677 728  0.010 81.290   18  0.848   18 -0.005   19 -0.034   18 0.4992  0.477 -0.044 -0.024 -0.024
METS          77  85 676 707  0.015 81.615   19  0.829   19 -0.037   18 -0.027   19 0.4956  0.701  0.175 -0.230 -0.598
MARLINS       63  98 589 809  0.038 82.834   26  0.410   26 -0.184   26 -0.216   26 0.4769  0.738  0.025 -0.456 -0.612

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
ASTROS       107  63 839 569 -0.004 83.648    2  1.387    2  0.254    1  0.298    2 0.5323  0.321  0.153  0.442  0.003
ATHLETICS     97  66 815 681 -0.009 80.166    5  1.316    5  0.180    5  0.153    5 0.5229  0.668  0.323 -0.017 -0.283
MARINERS      89  73 677 711  0.012 81.437    9  1.020    9  0.106   17 -0.015    9 0.5132  0.540  0.032 -0.063 -0.285
ANGELS        80  82 721 722  0.012 81.417   17  0.849   17 -0.003   16 -0.007   17 0.5006  0.504  0.008 -0.021 -0.021
RANGERS       67  95 737 848  0.021 82.236   25  0.490   25 -0.153   23 -0.130   25 0.4822  0.428 -0.184 -0.077  0.538

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
INDIANS       91  74 824 669 -0.087 76.061   14  0.869   14  0.033    9  0.104   15 0.5029  0.364 -0.004  0.213  0.247
TWINS         78  84 738 775 -0.071 76.206   21  0.727   21 -0.092   21 -0.089   22 0.4870  0.544 -0.038 -0.141  0.085
TIGERS        64  98 630 796 -0.059 77.350   27  0.348   27 -0.253   27 -0.262   27 0.4671  0.463 -0.284 -0.239 -0.040
WHITE SOX     62 100 656 848 -0.053 77.693   28  0.338   28 -0.272   28 -0.267   28 0.4647  0.556 -0.205 -0.329  0.003
ROYALS        58 104 638 833 -0.055 77.562   29  0.281   29 -0.323   29 -0.271   29 0.4590  0.439 -0.315 -0.227  0.159

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  P-SCR  P-OFF  P-DEF  H-SCR
RED SOX      115  56 932 682 -0.025 82.655    1  1.454    1  0.325    2  0.260    1 0.5393  0.526  0.295  0.225  0.132
YANKEES      102  65 872 698 -0.033 80.412    4  1.337    4  0.190    4  0.195    3 0.5244  0.470  0.178  0.211  0.226
RAYS          90  72 716 646 -0.027 78.633   12  0.956   12  0.086   14  0.064   11 0.5113  0.406 -0.008  0.137 -0.112
BLUE JAYS     73  89 709 832 -0.005 80.685   22  0.690   22 -0.101   25 -0.161   21 0.4879  0.649 -0.010 -0.313 -0.059
ORIOLES       47 115 622 892  0.015 82.278   30  0.000   30 -0.406   30 -0.327   30 0.4520  0.513 -0.304 -0.349  0.058

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL WEST    440 379 0.537    1  0.070
NL CENTRAL 434 387 0.529    2  0.064
NL WEST    411 415 0.498    3  0.050
AL EAST    427 397 0.518    4  0.008
NL EAST    393 420 0.483    5 -0.023
AL CENTRAL 353 460 0.434    6 -0.187

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.071 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.007 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sat Oct 20 05:30:35 2018
games through: Fri Oct 19 2018

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