Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      55 32 488 392 -0.026 41.782    1  0.193    1  0.171    4  0.137    1 0.5285    9  0.623    5  0.282   17 -0.008    5  0.280
TIGERS       54 33 439 336 -0.031 41.635    2  0.169    2  0.152    2  0.161    2 0.5259   11  0.607    3  0.291   15  0.032   24 -0.167
CUBS         51 35 463 355  0.022 42.927    3  0.156    3  0.142    1  0.185    3 0.5251    7  0.631    2  0.337   16  0.032   12  0.028
ASTROS       52 34 361 312 -0.018 41.713    4  0.142    4  0.135    8  0.088    4 0.5240   20  0.352   15 -0.012    5  0.188   18 -0.050
PHILLIES     51 36 399 347 -0.018 42.158    5  0.105    5  0.112    7  0.092    5 0.5191   28  0.187   22 -0.141    1  0.324    2  0.452
BLUE JAYS    48 38 393 387  0.008 42.667    7  0.065    6  0.084   13  0.030    6 0.5150   17  0.389   18 -0.038   11  0.098    4  0.307
YANKEES      48 38 440 337 -0.025 41.374    9  0.049   10  0.067    3  0.155    7 0.5134   15  0.494   10  0.179    9  0.131   13  0.020
METS         49 38 377 339 -0.009 42.491    6  0.067    7  0.084   10  0.061    8 0.5129   19  0.359   17 -0.033    8  0.154   25 -0.172
BREWERS      48 38 407 350  0.002 42.322    8  0.061    8  0.080    5  0.094    9 0.5118    2  0.759    1  0.375   24 -0.186   30 -0.541
CARDINALS    47 41 403 371  0.035 44.591   10  0.049    9  0.067    9  0.074   10 0.5114   10  0.619    7  0.215   20 -0.067   23 -0.122
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       46 40 352 341  0.017 42.965   12  0.039   12  0.058   14  0.028   11 0.5103   24  0.295   20 -0.119    6  0.175   17 -0.045
RAYS         48 39 416 347 -0.021 42.033   11  0.041   11  0.059    6  0.094   12 0.5101   13  0.587    9  0.205   18 -0.017   22 -0.102
MARINERS     45 41 392 377 -0.015 41.908   15  0.014   15  0.023   19  0.008   13 0.5055    8  0.629   12  0.159   22 -0.142   26 -0.298
GIANTS       46 41 359 334 -0.024 42.054   14  0.016   14  0.027   15  0.020   14 0.5041   26  0.252   23 -0.161    3  0.201   19 -0.056
REDS         45 42 404 369  0.011 43.216   13  0.019   13  0.030   11  0.055   15 0.5036   12  0.597   11  0.175   19 -0.065   21 -0.089
ANGELS       42 43 366 416 -0.003 41.938   18 -0.005   17 -0.010   24 -0.085   16 0.4995   14  0.585   14  0.024   25 -0.194   16 -0.040
DIAMONDBACKS 43 43 449 440  0.001 42.427   16  0.002   16 -0.000   12  0.030   17 0.4990    3  0.731    4  0.282   26 -0.222    9  0.085
GUARDIANS    40 44 309 360  0.022 42.281   19 -0.011   19 -0.021   23 -0.076   18 0.4977   22  0.321   26 -0.202   14  0.050   14 -0.012
RED SOX      43 45 421 406  0.006 43.585   17 -0.004   18 -0.013   16  0.019   19 0.4968    5  0.667    8  0.207   23 -0.169   11  0.065
RANGERS      43 44 330 304 -0.027 41.936   20 -0.012   20 -0.023   17  0.015   20 0.4952   27  0.247   24 -0.171    4  0.200   27 -0.341
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        41 45 358 373 -0.005 42.280   21 -0.020   21 -0.035   21 -0.016   21 0.4951   18  0.360   19 -0.109   13  0.077    7  0.258
PIRATES      38 50 310 339  0.066 45.757   24 -0.040   24 -0.059   20 -0.012   22 0.4904   30  0.071   28 -0.332    2  0.307   10  0.081
BRAVES       39 46 347 334 -0.000 41.903   23 -0.038   23 -0.057   18  0.013   23 0.4903   23  0.299   21 -0.130    7  0.157   15 -0.035
ROYALS       40 47 287 322  0.007 43.313   22 -0.033   22 -0.051   22 -0.073   24 0.4900   25  0.278   27 -0.233   12  0.088   28 -0.358
MARLINS      38 46 356 429  0.008 41.883   25 -0.050   25 -0.063   25 -0.116   25 0.4883    1  0.816    6  0.223   30 -0.456   29 -0.413
ORIOLES      37 49 357 444  0.009 42.898   26 -0.083   26 -0.092   26 -0.137   26 0.4834   16  0.416   25 -0.181   21 -0.092    3  0.363
NATIONALS    36 50 377 449 -0.020 41.967   27 -0.128   27 -0.125   27 -0.149   27 0.4789    4  0.699   13  0.070   29 -0.368   20 -0.088
ATHLETICS    36 53 369 509  0.006 44.363   28 -0.139   28 -0.132   29 -0.186   28 0.4785    6  0.650   16 -0.015   28 -0.358    6  0.268
WHITE SOX    28 58 292 378  0.010 42.949   29 -0.246   29 -0.237   28 -0.152   29 0.4596   29  0.148   29 -0.415   10  0.110    8  0.134
ROCKIES      19 67 303 527  0.042 44.288   30 -0.379   30 -0.375   30 -0.367   30 0.4360   21  0.339   30 -0.478   27 -0.257    1  0.587

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      55 32 488 392 -0.026 41.782    1  0.193    1  0.171    4  0.137    1 0.5285    9  0.623    5  0.282   17 -0.008    5  0.280
PADRES       46 40 352 341  0.017 42.965   12  0.039   12  0.058   14  0.028   11 0.5103   24  0.295   20 -0.119    6  0.175   17 -0.045
GIANTS       46 41 359 334 -0.024 42.054   14  0.016   14  0.027   15  0.020   14 0.5041   26  0.252   23 -0.161    3  0.201   19 -0.056
DIAMONDBACKS 43 43 449 440  0.001 42.427   16  0.002   16 -0.000   12  0.030   17 0.4990    3  0.731    4  0.282   26 -0.222    9  0.085
ROCKIES      19 67 303 527  0.042 44.288   30 -0.379   30 -0.375   30 -0.367   30 0.4360   21  0.339   30 -0.478   27 -0.257    1  0.587

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         51 35 463 355  0.022 42.927    3  0.156    3  0.142    1  0.185    3 0.5251    7  0.631    2  0.337   16  0.032   12  0.028
BREWERS      48 38 407 350  0.002 42.322    8  0.061    8  0.080    5  0.094    9 0.5118    2  0.759    1  0.375   24 -0.186   30 -0.541
CARDINALS    47 41 403 371  0.035 44.591   10  0.049    9  0.067    9  0.074   10 0.5114   10  0.619    7  0.215   20 -0.067   23 -0.122
REDS         45 42 404 369  0.011 43.216   13  0.019   13  0.030   11  0.055   15 0.5036   12  0.597   11  0.175   19 -0.065   21 -0.089
PIRATES      38 50 310 339  0.066 45.757   24 -0.040   24 -0.059   20 -0.012   22 0.4904   30  0.071   28 -0.332    2  0.307   10  0.081

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     51 36 399 347 -0.018 42.158    5  0.105    5  0.112    7  0.092    5 0.5191   28  0.187   22 -0.141    1  0.324    2  0.452
METS         49 38 377 339 -0.009 42.491    6  0.067    7  0.084   10  0.061    8 0.5129   19  0.359   17 -0.033    8  0.154   25 -0.172
BRAVES       39 46 347 334 -0.000 41.903   23 -0.038   23 -0.057   18  0.013   23 0.4903   23  0.299   21 -0.130    7  0.157   15 -0.035
MARLINS      38 46 356 429  0.008 41.883   25 -0.050   25 -0.063   25 -0.116   25 0.4883    1  0.816    6  0.223   30 -0.456   29 -0.413
NATIONALS    36 50 377 449 -0.020 41.967   27 -0.128   27 -0.125   27 -0.149   27 0.4789    4  0.699   13  0.070   29 -0.368   20 -0.088

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       52 34 361 312 -0.018 41.713    4  0.142    4  0.135    8  0.088    4 0.5240   20  0.352   15 -0.012    5  0.188   18 -0.050
MARINERS     45 41 392 377 -0.015 41.908   15  0.014   15  0.023   19  0.008   13 0.5055    8  0.629   12  0.159   22 -0.142   26 -0.298
ANGELS       42 43 366 416 -0.003 41.938   18 -0.005   17 -0.010   24 -0.085   16 0.4995   14  0.585   14  0.024   25 -0.194   16 -0.040
RANGERS      43 44 330 304 -0.027 41.936   20 -0.012   20 -0.023   17  0.015   20 0.4952   27  0.247   24 -0.171    4  0.200   27 -0.341
ATHLETICS    36 53 369 509  0.006 44.363   28 -0.139   28 -0.132   29 -0.186   28 0.4785    6  0.650   16 -0.015   28 -0.358    6  0.268

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       54 33 439 336 -0.031 41.635    2  0.169    2  0.152    2  0.161    2 0.5259   11  0.607    3  0.291   15  0.032   24 -0.167
GUARDIANS    40 44 309 360  0.022 42.281   19 -0.011   19 -0.021   23 -0.076   18 0.4977   22  0.321   26 -0.202   14  0.050   14 -0.012
TWINS        41 45 358 373 -0.005 42.280   21 -0.020   21 -0.035   21 -0.016   21 0.4951   18  0.360   19 -0.109   13  0.077    7  0.258
ROYALS       40 47 287 322  0.007 43.313   22 -0.033   22 -0.051   22 -0.073   24 0.4900   25  0.278   27 -0.233   12  0.088   28 -0.358
WHITE SOX    28 58 292 378  0.010 42.949   29 -0.246   29 -0.237   28 -0.152   29 0.4596   29  0.148   29 -0.415   10  0.110    8  0.134

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    48 38 393 387  0.008 42.667    7  0.065    6  0.084   13  0.030    6 0.5150   17  0.389   18 -0.038   11  0.098    4  0.307
YANKEES      48 38 440 337 -0.025 41.374    9  0.049   10  0.067    3  0.155    7 0.5134   15  0.494   10  0.179    9  0.131   13  0.020
RAYS         48 39 416 347 -0.021 42.033   11  0.041   11  0.059    6  0.094   12 0.5101   13  0.587    9  0.205   18 -0.017   22 -0.102
RED SOX      43 45 421 406  0.006 43.585   17 -0.004   18 -0.013   16  0.019   19 0.4968    5  0.667    8  0.207   23 -0.169   11  0.065
ORIOLES      37 49 357 444  0.009 42.898   26 -0.083   26 -0.092   26 -0.137   26 0.4834   16  0.416   25 -0.181   21 -0.092    3  0.363

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 229 206 0.526    1  0.121
AL EAST    224 209 0.517    2  0.050
NL EAST    213 216 0.497    3 -0.030
NL WEST    209 223 0.484    4 -0.042
AL WEST    218 215 0.503    5 -0.048
AL CENTRAL 203 227 0.472    6 -0.048

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.080 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Jul  3 05:30:09 2025
games through: Wed Jul  2 2025

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