Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS       92  59 771 591 -0.008 73.904    1  0.208    1  0.181    1  0.196    1 0.5252    5  0.637    2  0.326   14  0.066   26 -0.213
BLUE JAYS     89  62 757 669  0.016 75.525    2  0.187    2  0.164    5  0.118    2 0.5235   10  0.559    4  0.174   15  0.063    9  0.064
PHILLIES      91  61 743 614 -0.022 73.604    3  0.175    3  0.154    4  0.134    3 0.5220   27  0.341   15 -0.004    1  0.271    2  0.298
CUBS          87  64 735 606 -0.003 74.309    4  0.127    4  0.128    3  0.142    4 0.5177   12  0.515    5  0.157    5  0.128   20 -0.050
YANKEES       84  67 784 661  0.021 75.775    5  0.090    5  0.111    2  0.148    5 0.5162    2  0.709    1  0.349   20 -0.054   24 -0.139
TIGERS        85  66 734 641 -0.017 73.547    6  0.064    6  0.096    7  0.109    6 0.5135   16  0.488    9  0.099    8  0.119    6  0.143
MARINERS      83  68 717 659  0.010 75.190    7  0.054    7  0.090   10  0.068    7 0.5135    3  0.708    3  0.268   24 -0.133   29 -0.415
RED SOX       82  69 737 634  0.009 75.072    8  0.042    8  0.080    6  0.113    8 0.5114   11  0.527    6  0.139   11  0.088   14  0.012
ASTROS        83  69 647 623 -0.005 74.850   10  0.034   10  0.074   15  0.024    9 0.5108   23  0.413   21 -0.052   10  0.100   21 -0.052
DODGERS       84  67 773 656 -0.033 72.519    9  0.036    9  0.074    8  0.101   10 0.5101   18  0.478   10  0.083    7  0.119    3  0.266
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES        82  69 644 586 -0.024 73.137   11  0.021   11  0.057   11  0.050   11 0.5079   29  0.315   25 -0.109    2  0.209   22 -0.060
RANGERS       79  73 651 561  0.007 75.468   12  0.013   13  0.039    9  0.095   12 0.5064   19  0.461   11  0.061    4  0.129   30 -0.451
GUARDIANS     79  71 587 616 -0.005 73.974   13  0.013   12  0.041   19 -0.031   13 0.5054   28  0.339   28 -0.170    9  0.109   23 -0.065
METS          78  73 712 661 -0.010 74.002   14  0.007   14  0.022   13  0.041   14 0.5029   15  0.490   14  0.033   16  0.049   12  0.042
REDS          75  76 676 654  0.000 74.693   16  0.001   16 -0.005   16  0.017   15 0.4993   20  0.442   18 -0.034   13  0.068   10  0.062
DIAMONDBACKS  77  75 757 726 -0.020 73.884   15  0.001   15 -0.003   14  0.030   16 0.4992    7  0.610    7  0.134   22 -0.073    8  0.111
ROYALS        75  76 582 601 -0.000 74.746   17  0.000   17 -0.006   20 -0.039   17 0.4984   25  0.407   26 -0.121   17  0.043   27 -0.256
GIANTS        75  76 657 643 -0.008 74.221   18 -0.001   18 -0.011   17  0.001   18 0.4980   22  0.419   22 -0.071   12  0.072   18 -0.024
RAYS          73  78 673 626  0.014 75.471   19 -0.002   19 -0.018   12  0.043   19 0.4977   24  0.407   19 -0.039    6  0.124   11  0.056
CARDINALS     74  78 651 705  0.004 75.519   20 -0.003   20 -0.021   22 -0.056   20 0.4965    9  0.603   13  0.041   26 -0.152   25 -0.145
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORIOLES       71  80 647 737  0.020 76.053   21 -0.008   21 -0.037   24 -0.082   21 0.4951   13  0.502   23 -0.080   23 -0.085    7  0.122
ATHLETICS     71  80 696 765  0.012 75.500   22 -0.010   22 -0.042   21 -0.046   22 0.4946    6  0.610   12  0.058   25 -0.150    5  0.148
ANGELS        69  82 641 779  0.031 76.723   23 -0.016   23 -0.053   28 -0.118   23 0.4924    8  0.604   16 -0.020   27 -0.217   13  0.022
MARLINS       71  80 661 754 -0.008 74.374   24 -0.018   24 -0.057   26 -0.098   24 0.4914    1  0.739    8  0.132   29 -0.329   28 -0.271
BRAVES        69  83 668 698 -0.002 75.153   25 -0.031   25 -0.079   18 -0.031   25 0.4890   14  0.501   17 -0.028   18 -0.033   16  0.001
TWINS         66  85 648 731  0.003 74.964   26 -0.072   26 -0.105   25 -0.083   26 0.4847   17  0.484   24 -0.096   21 -0.069    4  0.152
PIRATES       65  87 541 618  0.014 76.216   27 -0.088   27 -0.113   23 -0.075   27 0.4838   30  0.187   29 -0.336    3  0.187   19 -0.031
NATIONALS     62  90 643 833 -0.001 75.525   28 -0.189   28 -0.159   29 -0.225   28 0.4775    4  0.685   20 -0.049   30 -0.402   17 -0.007
WHITE SOX     57  95 608 695  0.013 76.101   29 -0.231   29 -0.204   27 -0.110   29 0.4711   21  0.431   27 -0.170   19 -0.050   15  0.001
ROCKIES       41 110 563 961  0.022 76.532   30 -0.402   30 -0.386   30 -0.436   30 0.4453   26  0.354   30 -0.562   28 -0.309    1  0.680
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS       84  67 773 656 -0.033 72.519    9  0.036    9  0.074    8  0.101   10 0.5101   18  0.478   10  0.083    7  0.119    3  0.266
PADRES        82  69 644 586 -0.024 73.137   11  0.021   11  0.057   11  0.050   11 0.5079   29  0.315   25 -0.109    2  0.209   22 -0.060
DIAMONDBACKS  77  75 757 726 -0.020 73.884   15  0.001   15 -0.003   14  0.030   16 0.4992    7  0.610    7  0.134   22 -0.073    8  0.111
GIANTS        75  76 657 643 -0.008 74.221   18 -0.001   18 -0.011   17  0.001   18 0.4980   22  0.419   22 -0.071   12  0.072   18 -0.024
ROCKIES       41 110 563 961  0.022 76.532   30 -0.402   30 -0.386   30 -0.436   30 0.4453   26  0.354   30 -0.562   28 -0.309    1  0.680

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS       92  59 771 591 -0.008 73.904    1  0.208    1  0.181    1  0.196    1 0.5252    5  0.637    2  0.326   14  0.066   26 -0.213
CUBS          87  64 735 606 -0.003 74.309    4  0.127    4  0.128    3  0.142    4 0.5177   12  0.515    5  0.157    5  0.128   20 -0.050
REDS          75  76 676 654  0.000 74.693   16  0.001   16 -0.005   16  0.017   15 0.4993   20  0.442   18 -0.034   13  0.068   10  0.062
CARDINALS     74  78 651 705  0.004 75.519   20 -0.003   20 -0.021   22 -0.056   20 0.4965    9  0.603   13  0.041   26 -0.152   25 -0.145
PIRATES       65  87 541 618  0.014 76.216   27 -0.088   27 -0.113   23 -0.075   27 0.4838   30  0.187   29 -0.336    3  0.187   19 -0.031

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES      91  61 743 614 -0.022 73.604    3  0.175    3  0.154    4  0.134    3 0.5220   27  0.341   15 -0.004    1  0.271    2  0.298
METS          78  73 712 661 -0.010 74.002   14  0.007   14  0.022   13  0.041   14 0.5029   15  0.490   14  0.033   16  0.049   12  0.042
MARLINS       71  80 661 754 -0.008 74.374   24 -0.018   24 -0.057   26 -0.098   24 0.4914    1  0.739    8  0.132   29 -0.329   28 -0.271
BRAVES        69  83 668 698 -0.002 75.153   25 -0.031   25 -0.079   18 -0.031   25 0.4890   14  0.501   17 -0.028   18 -0.033   16  0.001
NATIONALS     62  90 643 833 -0.001 75.525   28 -0.189   28 -0.159   29 -0.225   28 0.4775    4  0.685   20 -0.049   30 -0.402   17 -0.007

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS      83  68 717 659  0.010 75.190    7  0.054    7  0.090   10  0.068    7 0.5135    3  0.708    3  0.268   24 -0.133   29 -0.415
ASTROS        83  69 647 623 -0.005 74.850   10  0.034   10  0.074   15  0.024    9 0.5108   23  0.413   21 -0.052   10  0.100   21 -0.052
RANGERS       79  73 651 561  0.007 75.468   12  0.013   13  0.039    9  0.095   12 0.5064   19  0.461   11  0.061    4  0.129   30 -0.451
ATHLETICS     71  80 696 765  0.012 75.500   22 -0.010   22 -0.042   21 -0.046   22 0.4946    6  0.610   12  0.058   25 -0.150    5  0.148
ANGELS        69  82 641 779  0.031 76.723   23 -0.016   23 -0.053   28 -0.118   23 0.4924    8  0.604   16 -0.020   27 -0.217   13  0.022

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS        85  66 734 641 -0.017 73.547    6  0.064    6  0.096    7  0.109    6 0.5135   16  0.488    9  0.099    8  0.119    6  0.143
GUARDIANS     79  71 587 616 -0.005 73.974   13  0.013   12  0.041   19 -0.031   13 0.5054   28  0.339   28 -0.170    9  0.109   23 -0.065
ROYALS        75  76 582 601 -0.000 74.746   17  0.000   17 -0.006   20 -0.039   17 0.4984   25  0.407   26 -0.121   17  0.043   27 -0.256
TWINS         66  85 648 731  0.003 74.964   26 -0.072   26 -0.105   25 -0.083   26 0.4847   17  0.484   24 -0.096   21 -0.069    4  0.152
WHITE SOX     57  95 608 695  0.013 76.101   29 -0.231   29 -0.204   27 -0.110   29 0.4711   21  0.431   27 -0.170   19 -0.050   15  0.001

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS     89  62 757 669  0.016 75.525    2  0.187    2  0.164    5  0.118    2 0.5235   10  0.559    4  0.174   15  0.063    9  0.064
YANKEES       84  67 784 661  0.021 75.775    5  0.090    5  0.111    2  0.148    5 0.5162    2  0.709    1  0.349   20 -0.054   24 -0.139
RED SOX       82  69 737 634  0.009 75.072    8  0.042    8  0.080    6  0.113    8 0.5114   11  0.527    6  0.139   11  0.088   14  0.012
RAYS          73  78 673 626  0.014 75.471   19 -0.002   19 -0.018   12  0.043   19 0.4977   24  0.407   19 -0.039    6  0.124   11  0.056
ORIOLES       71  80 647 737  0.020 76.053   21 -0.008   21 -0.037   24 -0.082   21 0.4951   13  0.502   23 -0.080   23 -0.085    7  0.122

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    399 356 0.528    1  0.089
NL CENTRAL 393 364 0.519    2  0.059
AL WEST    385 372 0.509    3  0.006
AL CENTRAL 362 393 0.479    4 -0.040
NL EAST    371 387 0.489    5 -0.047
NL WEST    359 397 0.475    6 -0.063

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.076 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Sep 17 08:07:04 2025
games through: Tue Sep 16 2025

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