Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         60 42 537 420  0.012 50.553    1  0.153    1  0.134    1  0.179    1 0.5224   11  0.587    3  0.284   11  0.073   12  0.049
BREWERS      61 41 489 391 -0.009 49.691    2  0.150    2  0.134    3  0.141    2 0.5220    6  0.650    2  0.307   18 -0.025   28 -0.435
ASTROS       60 42 449 385 -0.000 50.146    4  0.135    4  0.125    5  0.101    3 0.5217   17  0.398   13  0.036    4  0.167   18 -0.041
BLUE JAYS    60 42 474 442  0.006 50.415    3  0.139    3  0.129   11  0.069    4 0.5216   18  0.382   17 -0.010    7  0.149    5  0.247
TIGERS       60 43 491 419 -0.014 50.040    5  0.109    5  0.111    4  0.106    5 0.5187   14  0.543    9  0.171   15  0.042   19 -0.042
DODGERS      60 43 546 480 -0.020 49.826    6  0.104    6  0.108    7  0.081    6 0.5171    9  0.592    6  0.192   19 -0.029    3  0.302
YANKEES      56 46 530 424  0.006 50.360    9  0.057    9  0.074    2  0.153    7 0.5147    7  0.611    4  0.282   17  0.025   22 -0.070
PHILLIES     58 44 469 406 -0.028 48.979    8  0.068    8  0.083    6  0.089    8 0.5139   29  0.180   23 -0.153    1  0.332    2  0.459
METS         59 44 451 406 -0.029 49.499    7  0.073    7  0.089   12  0.049    9 0.5133   21  0.358   19 -0.050    6  0.149   23 -0.084
MARINERS     54 48 470 453  0.024 51.197   10  0.033   10  0.055   13  0.037   10 0.5101    1  0.768    1  0.321   27 -0.247   29 -0.498
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       55 47 407 391 -0.004 50.078   11  0.033   11  0.054   15  0.024   11 0.5086   28  0.247   26 -0.166    3  0.214   20 -0.053
RED SOX      55 49 510 456  0.011 51.606   12  0.028   12  0.048    9  0.073   12 0.5072   10  0.591    7  0.183   20 -0.036   11  0.062
GIANTS       54 49 431 412 -0.008 50.412   13  0.017   13  0.030   17  0.018   13 0.5049   26  0.322   21 -0.111    8  0.148   24 -0.093
GUARDIANS    51 50 390 424  0.010 50.270   18  0.007   18  0.013   22 -0.047   14 0.5036   23  0.341   24 -0.161   12  0.067   16 -0.025
RAYS         53 50 483 419 -0.003 50.536   14  0.011   14  0.019    8  0.078   15 0.5026   15  0.498   12  0.101   14  0.054   13  0.041
RANGERS      53 50 415 354 -0.015 50.035   15  0.009   17  0.013   10  0.070   16 0.5025   19  0.373   18 -0.017    5  0.156   30 -0.558
REDS         53 50 470 435 -0.013 50.170   16  0.008   15  0.013   14  0.033   17 0.5017   13  0.561   11  0.115   21 -0.048   25 -0.123
CARDINALS    52 51 461 465  0.012 51.257   17  0.007   16  0.013   18 -0.001   18 0.5016    8  0.599   10  0.116   23 -0.119   21 -0.063
ANGELS       49 53 447 512  0.018 51.110   20 -0.006   20 -0.019   24 -0.082   19 0.4980   12  0.566   16  0.004   24 -0.168    9  0.092
ROYALS       50 53 363 385  0.015 51.486   19 -0.003   19 -0.012   21 -0.043   20 0.4974   25  0.333   25 -0.163   10  0.078   26 -0.341
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        49 53 434 443  0.004 50.409   21 -0.008   21 -0.026   19 -0.002   21 0.4964   20  0.366   20 -0.095    9  0.090    7  0.204
DIAMONDBACKS 50 53 522 508 -0.014 50.179   22 -0.009   22 -0.029   16  0.022   22 0.4950    4  0.697    5  0.235   25 -0.190   10  0.068
MARLINS      48 53 431 485 -0.012 49.440   23 -0.020   23 -0.043   25 -0.083   23 0.4915    2  0.746    8  0.178   28 -0.345   27 -0.381
ORIOLES      44 57 412 520  0.018 50.690   24 -0.057   24 -0.082   27 -0.142   24 0.4861   16  0.434   27 -0.176   22 -0.107    4  0.294
BRAVES       44 57 418 428 -0.019 49.092   25 -0.082   25 -0.102   20 -0.037   25 0.4826   22  0.354   22 -0.140   13  0.066   14  0.041
PIRATES      42 61 350 412  0.044 52.658   26 -0.093   26 -0.108   23 -0.068   26 0.4817   30  0.058   29 -0.401    2  0.265    8  0.170
ATHLETICS    42 62 438 584  0.022 52.391   27 -0.128   27 -0.127   28 -0.163   27 0.4795    5  0.674   14  0.026   29 -0.353    6  0.213
NATIONALS    41 61 440 550 -0.018 49.799   28 -0.173   28 -0.152   29 -0.189   28 0.4746    3  0.698   15  0.025   30 -0.403   17 -0.026
WHITE SOX    37 66 381 453  0.010 51.346   29 -0.227   29 -0.196   26 -0.114   29 0.4679   27  0.305   28 -0.258   16  0.029   15 -0.002
ROCKIES      26 76 369 616  0.022 51.627   30 -0.335   30 -0.346   30 -0.359   30 0.4411   24  0.334   30 -0.478   26 -0.239    1  0.589
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      60 43 546 480 -0.020 49.826    6  0.104    6  0.108    7  0.081    6 0.5171    9  0.592    6  0.192   19 -0.029    3  0.302
PADRES       55 47 407 391 -0.004 50.078   11  0.033   11  0.054   15  0.024   11 0.5086   28  0.247   26 -0.166    3  0.214   20 -0.053
GIANTS       54 49 431 412 -0.008 50.412   13  0.017   13  0.030   17  0.018   13 0.5049   26  0.322   21 -0.111    8  0.148   24 -0.093
DIAMONDBACKS 50 53 522 508 -0.014 50.179   22 -0.009   22 -0.029   16  0.022   22 0.4950    4  0.697    5  0.235   25 -0.190   10  0.068
ROCKIES      26 76 369 616  0.022 51.627   30 -0.335   30 -0.346   30 -0.359   30 0.4411   24  0.334   30 -0.478   26 -0.239    1  0.589

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         60 42 537 420  0.012 50.553    1  0.153    1  0.134    1  0.179    1 0.5224   11  0.587    3  0.284   11  0.073   12  0.049
BREWERS      61 41 489 391 -0.009 49.691    2  0.150    2  0.134    3  0.141    2 0.5220    6  0.650    2  0.307   18 -0.025   28 -0.435
REDS         53 50 470 435 -0.013 50.170   16  0.008   15  0.013   14  0.033   17 0.5017   13  0.561   11  0.115   21 -0.048   25 -0.123
CARDINALS    52 51 461 465  0.012 51.257   17  0.007   16  0.013   18 -0.001   18 0.5016    8  0.599   10  0.116   23 -0.119   21 -0.063
PIRATES      42 61 350 412  0.044 52.658   26 -0.093   26 -0.108   23 -0.068   26 0.4817   30  0.058   29 -0.401    2  0.265    8  0.170

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     58 44 469 406 -0.028 48.979    8  0.068    8  0.083    6  0.089    8 0.5139   29  0.180   23 -0.153    1  0.332    2  0.459
METS         59 44 451 406 -0.029 49.499    7  0.073    7  0.089   12  0.049    9 0.5133   21  0.358   19 -0.050    6  0.149   23 -0.084
MARLINS      48 53 431 485 -0.012 49.440   23 -0.020   23 -0.043   25 -0.083   23 0.4915    2  0.746    8  0.178   28 -0.345   27 -0.381
BRAVES       44 57 418 428 -0.019 49.092   25 -0.082   25 -0.102   20 -0.037   25 0.4826   22  0.354   22 -0.140   13  0.066   14  0.041
NATIONALS    41 61 440 550 -0.018 49.799   28 -0.173   28 -0.152   29 -0.189   28 0.4746    3  0.698   15  0.025   30 -0.403   17 -0.026

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       60 42 449 385 -0.000 50.146    4  0.135    4  0.125    5  0.101    3 0.5217   17  0.398   13  0.036    4  0.167   18 -0.041
MARINERS     54 48 470 453  0.024 51.197   10  0.033   10  0.055   13  0.037   10 0.5101    1  0.768    1  0.321   27 -0.247   29 -0.498
RANGERS      53 50 415 354 -0.015 50.035   15  0.009   17  0.013   10  0.070   16 0.5025   19  0.373   18 -0.017    5  0.156   30 -0.558
ANGELS       49 53 447 512  0.018 51.110   20 -0.006   20 -0.019   24 -0.082   19 0.4980   12  0.566   16  0.004   24 -0.168    9  0.092
ATHLETICS    42 62 438 584  0.022 52.391   27 -0.128   27 -0.127   28 -0.163   27 0.4795    5  0.674   14  0.026   29 -0.353    6  0.213

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       60 43 491 419 -0.014 50.040    5  0.109    5  0.111    4  0.106    5 0.5187   14  0.543    9  0.171   15  0.042   19 -0.042
GUARDIANS    51 50 390 424  0.010 50.270   18  0.007   18  0.013   22 -0.047   14 0.5036   23  0.341   24 -0.161   12  0.067   16 -0.025
ROYALS       50 53 363 385  0.015 51.486   19 -0.003   19 -0.012   21 -0.043   20 0.4974   25  0.333   25 -0.163   10  0.078   26 -0.341
TWINS        49 53 434 443  0.004 50.409   21 -0.008   21 -0.026   19 -0.002   21 0.4964   20  0.366   20 -0.095    9  0.090    7  0.204
WHITE SOX    37 66 381 453  0.010 51.346   29 -0.227   29 -0.196   26 -0.114   29 0.4679   27  0.305   28 -0.258   16  0.029   15 -0.002

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    60 42 474 442  0.006 50.415    3  0.139    3  0.129   11  0.069    4 0.5216   18  0.382   17 -0.010    7  0.149    5  0.247
YANKEES      56 46 530 424  0.006 50.360    9  0.057    9  0.074    2  0.153    7 0.5147    7  0.611    4  0.282   17  0.025   22 -0.070
RED SOX      55 49 510 456  0.011 51.606   12  0.028   12  0.048    9  0.073   12 0.5072   10  0.591    7  0.183   20 -0.036   11  0.062
RAYS         53 50 483 419 -0.003 50.536   14  0.011   14  0.019    8  0.078   15 0.5026   15  0.498   12  0.101   14  0.054   13  0.041
ORIOLES      44 57 412 520  0.018 50.690   24 -0.057   24 -0.082   27 -0.142   24 0.4861   16  0.434   27 -0.176   22 -0.107    4  0.294

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 268 245 0.522    1  0.085
AL EAST    268 244 0.523    2  0.069
AL WEST    258 255 0.503    3 -0.010
AL CENTRAL 247 265 0.482    4 -0.030
NL EAST    250 259 0.491    5 -0.051
NL WEST    245 268 0.478    6 -0.060

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.079 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Jul 24 05:30:06 2025
games through: Wed Jul 23 2025

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