Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      76 44 620 461 -0.023 57.943    1  0.232    1  0.193    1  0.195    1 0.5295    2  0.693    1  0.391   18 -0.002   29 -0.350
BLUE JAYS    70 51 589 544  0.007 60.108    2  0.134    2  0.127    8  0.074    2 0.5195   13  0.527    8  0.111   15  0.038    9  0.085
CUBS         68 51 604 488  0.017 59.465    3  0.128    3  0.123    2  0.166    3 0.5193    9  0.601    2  0.273   13  0.060   19 -0.054
PADRES       69 52 509 457 -0.006 59.428    6  0.093    5  0.107    9  0.074    4 0.5165   29  0.268   23 -0.112    2  0.260   17 -0.032
TIGERS       70 52 584 508 -0.014 59.527    4  0.096    4  0.108    6  0.101    5 0.5164   15  0.490    9  0.105    8  0.098    8  0.091
PHILLIES     69 51 556 476 -0.021 58.204    5  0.093    6  0.105    5  0.104    6 0.5161   28  0.271   21 -0.080    1  0.287    4  0.326
ASTROS       68 53 525 480  0.001 59.798    7  0.075    7  0.096   10  0.069    7 0.5149   23  0.386   18 -0.019    3  0.158   15  0.007
MARINERS     67 54 551 514  0.014 60.474    8  0.068    8  0.092   12  0.061    8 0.5140    8  0.612    5  0.177   22 -0.056   28 -0.316
DODGERS      68 53 626 546 -0.011 59.157    9  0.067    9  0.090    7  0.096    9 0.5139   16  0.482   10  0.093    7  0.099    2  0.357
RED SOX      66 56 614 521  0.014 60.875   10  0.046   10  0.074    4  0.117   10 0.5109    5  0.637    4  0.258   20 -0.023   18 -0.037
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      64 57 612 522  0.016 60.477   11  0.030   11  0.056    3  0.123   11 0.5092    4  0.640    3  0.268   19 -0.021   20 -0.057
METS         64 56 532 499 -0.024 58.167   12  0.018   12  0.038   15  0.024   12 0.5053   20  0.398   20 -0.053    5  0.102   16  0.001
GUARDIANS    62 57 474 501 -0.006 58.646   14  0.012   14  0.028   21 -0.039   13 0.5050   25  0.358   25 -0.151   12  0.073   13  0.019
REDS         64 58 554 503 -0.010 59.776   13  0.015   13  0.032   13  0.053   14 0.5045   14  0.516   11  0.080   17  0.026   22 -0.091
CARDINALS    61 61 526 547  0.001 60.473   16  0.001   16 -0.001   19 -0.030   15 0.5000   11  0.575   12  0.051   24 -0.112   24 -0.155
RANGERS      61 61 495 438 -0.001 60.188   15  0.002   15  0.000   11  0.065   16 0.4994   18  0.407   17 -0.005    4  0.134   30 -0.473
ROYALS       60 61 456 470  0.004 60.123   17  0.000   17 -0.003   20 -0.031   17 0.4991   26  0.343   26 -0.155    9  0.093   26 -0.201
ANGELS       59 62 535 600  0.019 60.872   18 -0.001   18 -0.008   24 -0.068   18 0.4981   10  0.600   14  0.037   26 -0.174   12  0.024
RAYS         59 63 546 503  0.017 61.138   19 -0.002   19 -0.015   14  0.047   19 0.4972   17  0.438   15  0.004   10  0.089   14  0.017
GIANTS       59 62 491 497 -0.013 59.261   20 -0.006   21 -0.027   17 -0.025   20 0.4957   21  0.394   22 -0.107   14  0.056   25 -0.198
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        57 63 501 534  0.009 59.843   22 -0.009   22 -0.033   18 -0.029   21 0.4954   24  0.364   24 -0.136   11  0.078    5  0.180
MARLINS      58 62 521 573  0.002 59.562   21 -0.007   20 -0.026   23 -0.063   22 0.4953    1  0.721    6  0.162   28 -0.287   27 -0.305
DIAMONDBACKS 59 62 595 591 -0.025 58.657   23 -0.010   23 -0.035   16 -0.007   23 0.4945    7  0.625    7  0.122   25 -0.136    7  0.148
ORIOLES      54 66 509 597  0.008 59.911   24 -0.040   24 -0.074   28 -0.112   24 0.4886   22  0.393   27 -0.194   21 -0.030    3  0.338
ATHLETICS    54 69 544 645  0.012 61.583   25 -0.056   25 -0.088   26 -0.093   25 0.4867    6  0.632   13  0.043   27 -0.229    6  0.153
BRAVES       52 68 515 536 -0.008 59.044   26 -0.088   26 -0.109   22 -0.047   26 0.4833   12  0.539   16  0.002   23 -0.095   23 -0.152
PIRATES      51 71 432 517  0.028 61.836   27 -0.096   27 -0.112   25 -0.090   27 0.4828   30  0.262   29 -0.281    6  0.101   21 -0.067
NATIONALS    48 72 515 663 -0.008 59.267   28 -0.195   28 -0.163   29 -0.212   28 0.4757    3  0.686   19 -0.023   30 -0.402   10  0.045
WHITE SOX    44 77 462 536  0.019 60.886   29 -0.234   29 -0.202   27 -0.103   29 0.4695   27  0.327   28 -0.241   16  0.035   11  0.045
ROCKIES      32 88 447 773  0.013 60.478   30 -0.368   30 -0.366   30 -0.423   30 0.4438   19  0.398   30 -0.501   29 -0.346    1  0.652
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       69 52 509 457 -0.006 59.428    6  0.093    5  0.107    9  0.074    4 0.5165   29  0.268   23 -0.112    2  0.260   17 -0.032
DODGERS      68 53 626 546 -0.011 59.157    9  0.067    9  0.090    7  0.096    9 0.5139   16  0.482   10  0.093    7  0.099    2  0.357
GIANTS       59 62 491 497 -0.013 59.261   20 -0.006   21 -0.027   17 -0.025   20 0.4957   21  0.394   22 -0.107   14  0.056   25 -0.198
DIAMONDBACKS 59 62 595 591 -0.025 58.657   23 -0.010   23 -0.035   16 -0.007   23 0.4945    7  0.625    7  0.122   25 -0.136    7  0.148
ROCKIES      32 88 447 773  0.013 60.478   30 -0.368   30 -0.366   30 -0.423   30 0.4438   19  0.398   30 -0.501   29 -0.346    1  0.652

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      76 44 620 461 -0.023 57.943    1  0.232    1  0.193    1  0.195    1 0.5295    2  0.693    1  0.391   18 -0.002   29 -0.350
CUBS         68 51 604 488  0.017 59.465    3  0.128    3  0.123    2  0.166    3 0.5193    9  0.601    2  0.273   13  0.060   19 -0.054
REDS         64 58 554 503 -0.010 59.776   13  0.015   13  0.032   13  0.053   14 0.5045   14  0.516   11  0.080   17  0.026   22 -0.091
CARDINALS    61 61 526 547  0.001 60.473   16  0.001   16 -0.001   19 -0.030   15 0.5000   11  0.575   12  0.051   24 -0.112   24 -0.155
PIRATES      51 71 432 517  0.028 61.836   27 -0.096   27 -0.112   25 -0.090   27 0.4828   30  0.262   29 -0.281    6  0.101   21 -0.067

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     69 51 556 476 -0.021 58.204    5  0.093    6  0.105    5  0.104    6 0.5161   28  0.271   21 -0.080    1  0.287    4  0.326
METS         64 56 532 499 -0.024 58.167   12  0.018   12  0.038   15  0.024   12 0.5053   20  0.398   20 -0.053    5  0.102   16  0.001
MARLINS      58 62 521 573  0.002 59.562   21 -0.007   20 -0.026   23 -0.063   22 0.4953    1  0.721    6  0.162   28 -0.287   27 -0.305
BRAVES       52 68 515 536 -0.008 59.044   26 -0.088   26 -0.109   22 -0.047   26 0.4833   12  0.539   16  0.002   23 -0.095   23 -0.152
NATIONALS    48 72 515 663 -0.008 59.267   28 -0.195   28 -0.163   29 -0.212   28 0.4757    3  0.686   19 -0.023   30 -0.402   10  0.045

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       68 53 525 480  0.001 59.798    7  0.075    7  0.096   10  0.069    7 0.5149   23  0.386   18 -0.019    3  0.158   15  0.007
MARINERS     67 54 551 514  0.014 60.474    8  0.068    8  0.092   12  0.061    8 0.5140    8  0.612    5  0.177   22 -0.056   28 -0.316
RANGERS      61 61 495 438 -0.001 60.188   15  0.002   15  0.000   11  0.065   16 0.4994   18  0.407   17 -0.005    4  0.134   30 -0.473
ANGELS       59 62 535 600  0.019 60.872   18 -0.001   18 -0.008   24 -0.068   18 0.4981   10  0.600   14  0.037   26 -0.174   12  0.024
ATHLETICS    54 69 544 645  0.012 61.583   25 -0.056   25 -0.088   26 -0.093   25 0.4867    6  0.632   13  0.043   27 -0.229    6  0.153

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       70 52 584 508 -0.014 59.527    4  0.096    4  0.108    6  0.101    5 0.5164   15  0.490    9  0.105    8  0.098    8  0.091
GUARDIANS    62 57 474 501 -0.006 58.646   14  0.012   14  0.028   21 -0.039   13 0.5050   25  0.358   25 -0.151   12  0.073   13  0.019
ROYALS       60 61 456 470  0.004 60.123   17  0.000   17 -0.003   20 -0.031   17 0.4991   26  0.343   26 -0.155    9  0.093   26 -0.201
TWINS        57 63 501 534  0.009 59.843   22 -0.009   22 -0.033   18 -0.029   21 0.4954   24  0.364   24 -0.136   11  0.078    5  0.180
WHITE SOX    44 77 462 536  0.019 60.886   29 -0.234   29 -0.202   27 -0.103   29 0.4695   27  0.327   28 -0.241   16  0.035   11  0.045

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    70 51 589 544  0.007 60.108    2  0.134    2  0.127    8  0.074    2 0.5195   13  0.527    8  0.111   15  0.038    9  0.085
RED SOX      66 56 614 521  0.014 60.875   10  0.046   10  0.074    4  0.117   10 0.5109    5  0.637    4  0.258   20 -0.023   18 -0.037
YANKEES      64 57 612 522  0.016 60.477   11  0.030   11  0.056    3  0.123   11 0.5092    4  0.640    3  0.268   19 -0.021   20 -0.057
RAYS         59 63 546 503  0.017 61.138   19 -0.002   19 -0.015   14  0.047   19 0.4972   17  0.438   15  0.004   10  0.089   14  0.017
ORIOLES      54 66 509 597  0.008 59.911   24 -0.040   24 -0.074   28 -0.112   24 0.4886   22  0.393   27 -0.194   21 -0.030    3  0.338

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 320 285 0.529    1  0.082
AL EAST    313 293 0.517    2  0.070
AL WEST    309 299 0.508    3  0.009
AL CENTRAL 293 310 0.486    4 -0.028
NL EAST    291 309 0.485    5 -0.054
NL WEST    287 317 0.475    6 -0.076

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.076 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Aug 14 05:30:23 2025
games through: Wed Aug 13 2025

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