Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARLINS      42 49 389 451 -0.002 44.966   23 -0.033   23 -0.058   25 -0.099   23 0.4889    1  0.806    7  0.228   30 -0.426   29 -0.442
BREWERS      53 40 435 367 -0.004 45.557    8  0.084    8  0.097    4  0.107    7 0.5151    2  0.713    1  0.339   21 -0.126   30 -0.532
DIAMONDBACKS 46 47 475 467 -0.015 45.294   21 -0.005   21 -0.017   17  0.014   21 0.4966    3  0.702    6  0.235   26 -0.207    9  0.109
NATIONALS    38 54 407 489 -0.025 44.724   28 -0.144   28 -0.140   28 -0.163   28 0.4767    4  0.692   13  0.048   29 -0.374   15 -0.026
RED SOX      49 45 477 422 -0.010 45.900   15  0.018   15  0.026    9  0.069   15 0.5034    5  0.691    3  0.280   24 -0.141   12  0.055
MARINERS     48 44 411 399  0.003 45.457   14  0.020   14  0.032   15  0.020   14 0.5058    6  0.656   10  0.195   25 -0.156   27 -0.407
CARDINALS    49 44 420 409  0.036 47.167   10  0.042   10  0.059   12  0.041   10 0.5096    7  0.651    8  0.212   22 -0.131   24 -0.152
ATHLETICS    38 56 396 534  0.010 46.979   27 -0.134   27 -0.134   29 -0.176   27 0.4782    8  0.651   15 -0.005   28 -0.347    6  0.273
CUBS         54 38 495 378  0.005 45.343    2  0.135    2  0.130    1  0.181    2 0.5218    9  0.611    2  0.313   16  0.049   13  0.044
DODGERS      56 38 504 438 -0.028 45.179    4  0.120    3  0.124    8  0.083    5 0.5194   10  0.600    9  0.205   18 -0.039    4  0.321
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      51 41 481 376 -0.007 44.921    9  0.058    9  0.074    3  0.164    8 0.5147   11  0.584    5  0.270   15  0.058   14 -0.017
TIGERS       59 35 468 360 -0.023 45.313    1  0.198    1  0.173    2  0.173    1 0.5291   12  0.580    4  0.276   13  0.070   25 -0.171
REDS         47 46 425 402  0.007 46.089   16  0.010   16  0.012   13  0.029   16 0.5010   13  0.579   12  0.131   20 -0.074   21 -0.086
RAYS         50 43 441 374  0.009 46.056   11  0.041   11  0.058    6  0.102   11 0.5096   14  0.556   11  0.181   17  0.022   20 -0.079
ANGELS       45 47 397 454  0.010 45.856   19 -0.002   19 -0.010   24 -0.083   19 0.4991   15  0.527   18 -0.030   23 -0.136   10  0.101
ORIOLES      40 50 377 460  0.025 45.451   24 -0.040   24 -0.065   26 -0.115   24 0.4885   16  0.413   24 -0.163   19 -0.066    3  0.373
ASTROS       55 38 409 346 -0.014 45.229    3  0.121    4  0.123    5  0.103    3 0.5216   17  0.401   14  0.044    4  0.162   16 -0.031
BLUE JAYS    54 39 427 407  0.011 46.227    5  0.118    5  0.122   11  0.056    4 0.5202   18  0.376   16 -0.025    7  0.137    5  0.274
METS         53 39 409 364 -0.017 44.650    7  0.088    7  0.101   10  0.064    9 0.5146   19  0.364   17 -0.026    6  0.155   23 -0.106
ROCKIES      21 72 328 579  0.024 47.276   30 -0.416   30 -0.393   30 -0.402   30 0.4347   20  0.357   30 -0.500   27 -0.305    1  0.582
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        45 47 386 395  0.015 45.907   17  0.001   17 -0.007   19  0.009   17 0.4999   21  0.355   20 -0.090   12  0.107    7  0.243
RANGERS      45 48 366 333 -0.016 45.229   22 -0.013   22 -0.032   14  0.026   22 0.4945   22  0.344   19 -0.082    8  0.134   28 -0.438
GUARDIANS    43 48 333 384  0.042 46.517   20 -0.004   20 -0.015   23 -0.063   18 0.4994   23  0.328   26 -0.184   14  0.059   22 -0.093
BRAVES       40 51 367 365 -0.023 44.095   25 -0.078   25 -0.099   20 -0.023   25 0.4836   24  0.312   23 -0.157   11  0.111   18 -0.055
PADRES       49 43 369 365 -0.000 45.365   12  0.031   12  0.047   18  0.009   13 0.5071   25  0.289   22 -0.144    5  0.162   19 -0.067
ROYALS       46 48 321 343  0.012 46.908   18 -0.001   18 -0.008   21 -0.043   20 0.4977   26  0.261   27 -0.219    9  0.133   26 -0.283
GIANTS       51 43 388 368 -0.026 45.351   13  0.029   13  0.046   16  0.014   12 0.5072   27  0.252   25 -0.168    3  0.197   17 -0.033
PHILLIES     54 39 430 365 -0.027 44.700    6  0.092    6  0.102    7  0.102    6 0.5167   28  0.206   21 -0.117    1  0.321    2  0.422
WHITE SOX    31 62 318 410  0.010 46.448   29 -0.241   29 -0.236   27 -0.157   29 0.4617   29  0.138   29 -0.429   10  0.114    8  0.142
PIRATES      38 56 319 364  0.055 48.523   26 -0.091   26 -0.107   22 -0.049   26 0.4827   30  0.060   28 -0.378    2  0.279   11  0.080

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DIAMONDBACKS 46 47 475 467 -0.015 45.294   21 -0.005   21 -0.017   17  0.014   21 0.4966    3  0.702    6  0.235   26 -0.207    9  0.109
DODGERS      56 38 504 438 -0.028 45.179    4  0.120    3  0.124    8  0.083    5 0.5194   10  0.600    9  0.205   18 -0.039    4  0.321
ROCKIES      21 72 328 579  0.024 47.276   30 -0.416   30 -0.393   30 -0.402   30 0.4347   20  0.357   30 -0.500   27 -0.305    1  0.582
PADRES       49 43 369 365 -0.000 45.365   12  0.031   12  0.047   18  0.009   13 0.5071   25  0.289   22 -0.144    5  0.162   19 -0.067
GIANTS       51 43 388 368 -0.026 45.351   13  0.029   13  0.046   16  0.014   12 0.5072   27  0.252   25 -0.168    3  0.197   17 -0.033

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      53 40 435 367 -0.004 45.557    8  0.084    8  0.097    4  0.107    7 0.5151    2  0.713    1  0.339   21 -0.126   30 -0.532
CARDINALS    49 44 420 409  0.036 47.167   10  0.042   10  0.059   12  0.041   10 0.5096    7  0.651    8  0.212   22 -0.131   24 -0.152
CUBS         54 38 495 378  0.005 45.343    2  0.135    2  0.130    1  0.181    2 0.5218    9  0.611    2  0.313   16  0.049   13  0.044
REDS         47 46 425 402  0.007 46.089   16  0.010   16  0.012   13  0.029   16 0.5010   13  0.579   12  0.131   20 -0.074   21 -0.086
PIRATES      38 56 319 364  0.055 48.523   26 -0.091   26 -0.107   22 -0.049   26 0.4827   30  0.060   28 -0.378    2  0.279   11  0.080

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARLINS      42 49 389 451 -0.002 44.966   23 -0.033   23 -0.058   25 -0.099   23 0.4889    1  0.806    7  0.228   30 -0.426   29 -0.442
NATIONALS    38 54 407 489 -0.025 44.724   28 -0.144   28 -0.140   28 -0.163   28 0.4767    4  0.692   13  0.048   29 -0.374   15 -0.026
METS         53 39 409 364 -0.017 44.650    7  0.088    7  0.101   10  0.064    9 0.5146   19  0.364   17 -0.026    6  0.155   23 -0.106
BRAVES       40 51 367 365 -0.023 44.095   25 -0.078   25 -0.099   20 -0.023   25 0.4836   24  0.312   23 -0.157   11  0.111   18 -0.055
PHILLIES     54 39 430 365 -0.027 44.700    6  0.092    6  0.102    7  0.102    6 0.5167   28  0.206   21 -0.117    1  0.321    2  0.422

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS     48 44 411 399  0.003 45.457   14  0.020   14  0.032   15  0.020   14 0.5058    6  0.656   10  0.195   25 -0.156   27 -0.407
ATHLETICS    38 56 396 534  0.010 46.979   27 -0.134   27 -0.134   29 -0.176   27 0.4782    8  0.651   15 -0.005   28 -0.347    6  0.273
ANGELS       45 47 397 454  0.010 45.856   19 -0.002   19 -0.010   24 -0.083   19 0.4991   15  0.527   18 -0.030   23 -0.136   10  0.101
ASTROS       55 38 409 346 -0.014 45.229    3  0.121    4  0.123    5  0.103    3 0.5216   17  0.401   14  0.044    4  0.162   16 -0.031
RANGERS      45 48 366 333 -0.016 45.229   22 -0.013   22 -0.032   14  0.026   22 0.4945   22  0.344   19 -0.082    8  0.134   28 -0.438

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       59 35 468 360 -0.023 45.313    1  0.198    1  0.173    2  0.173    1 0.5291   12  0.580    4  0.276   13  0.070   25 -0.171
TWINS        45 47 386 395  0.015 45.907   17  0.001   17 -0.007   19  0.009   17 0.4999   21  0.355   20 -0.090   12  0.107    7  0.243
GUARDIANS    43 48 333 384  0.042 46.517   20 -0.004   20 -0.015   23 -0.063   18 0.4994   23  0.328   26 -0.184   14  0.059   22 -0.093
ROYALS       46 48 321 343  0.012 46.908   18 -0.001   18 -0.008   21 -0.043   20 0.4977   26  0.261   27 -0.219    9  0.133   26 -0.283
WHITE SOX    31 62 318 410  0.010 46.448   29 -0.241   29 -0.236   27 -0.157   29 0.4617   29  0.138   29 -0.429   10  0.114    8  0.142

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED SOX      49 45 477 422 -0.010 45.900   15  0.018   15  0.026    9  0.069   15 0.5034    5  0.691    3  0.280   24 -0.141   12  0.055
YANKEES      51 41 481 376 -0.007 44.921    9  0.058    9  0.074    3  0.164    8 0.5147   11  0.584    5  0.270   15  0.058   14 -0.017
RAYS         50 43 441 374  0.009 46.056   11  0.041   11  0.058    6  0.102   11 0.5096   14  0.556   11  0.181   17  0.022   20 -0.079
ORIOLES      40 50 377 460  0.025 45.451   24 -0.040   24 -0.065   26 -0.115   24 0.4885   16  0.413   24 -0.163   19 -0.066    3  0.373
BLUE JAYS    54 39 427 407  0.011 46.227    5  0.118    5  0.122   11  0.056    4 0.5202   18  0.376   16 -0.025    7  0.137    5  0.274

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 241 224 0.518    1  0.091
AL EAST    244 218 0.528    2  0.082
AL CENTRAL 224 240 0.483    3 -0.025
AL WEST    231 233 0.498    4 -0.032
NL EAST    227 232 0.495    5 -0.035
NL WEST    223 243 0.479    6 -0.079

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.079 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Jul 10 05:30:06 2025
games through: Wed Jul  9 2025

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