Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        11 19 140 142 -0.101 13.776   29 -0.029   29 -0.035   26 -0.019   29 0.4655    1  0.723    1  0.236   30 -0.274   20 -0.164 P
RAYS         18 15 145 141  0.032 16.824    5  0.010    5  0.013   10  0.011    3 0.5149    2  0.667    2  0.211   28 -0.189   29 -0.515 P
ROCKIES      12 19 151 167  0.113 16.891   27 -0.009   27 -0.015   18 -0.004   28 0.4787    3  0.654    3  0.183   29 -0.191   10  0.223 P
RANGERS      16 17 135 147  0.002 16.495   22 -0.001   22 -0.004   23 -0.011   19 0.4977    4  0.640    4  0.163   27 -0.184   26 -0.406 P
ANGELS       13 17 135 167  0.041 15.523   26 -0.006   26 -0.011   28 -0.023   26 0.4886    5  0.620    8  0.131   26 -0.177   14  0.080 P
DIAMONDBACKS 15 16 154 164  0.032 15.859   18  0.000   18 -0.001   17 -0.003   23 0.4941    6  0.608    7  0.139   25 -0.146    4  0.354 P
CARDINALS    18 14 145 130 -0.048 15.279    7  0.008    7  0.010   11  0.007    5 0.5136    7  0.600    5  0.141   24 -0.127   21 -0.183 P
ASTROS       16 15 151 123 -0.047 14.758   19 -0.000   19 -0.001    8  0.018   16 0.5039    8  0.586    6  0.139   23 -0.104   17 -0.058 P
RED SOX      19 13 166 140 -0.039 15.350    2  0.013    2  0.017    9  0.016    1 0.5186    9  0.567    9  0.120   21 -0.087    7  0.303 P
GIANTS       18 13 138 108  0.068 16.176    1  0.017    1  0.022    2  0.034    2 0.5176   10  0.536   10  0.108   17 -0.040   27 -0.449 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       15 16 143 151 -0.009 15.344   23 -0.002   23 -0.005   20 -0.005   22 0.4957   11  0.529   11  0.063   19 -0.074    8  0.286 P
CUBS         15 16 146 152 -0.054 14.819   24 -0.005   25 -0.008   25 -0.018   24 0.4933   12  0.527   12  0.048   20 -0.084   11  0.195 P
NATIONALS    12 15  93 115  0.035 13.871   25 -0.005   24 -0.008   24 -0.011   25 0.4896   13  0.505   14  0.036   18 -0.058   25 -0.331 P
TIGERS        9 23 101 169 -0.010 16.133   30 -0.063   30 -0.047   30 -0.066   30 0.4484   14  0.490   18 -0.034   22 -0.099   23 -0.241 P
WHITE SOX    16 13 143 107 -0.055 13.682   12  0.006   14  0.005    3  0.023   10 0.5096   15  0.477   13  0.044   15  0.001   22 -0.213 P
MARLINS      14 16 127 107  0.064 15.652   21 -0.001   21 -0.002    6  0.019   21 0.4973   16  0.437   15  0.004   13  0.034   24 -0.262 P
ROYALS       16 14 133 147 -0.087 13.973   17  0.001   17 -0.001   27 -0.022   18 0.4990   17  0.436   19 -0.038   16 -0.006    3  0.419 P
REDS         14 15 152 152  0.023 14.725   20 -0.001   20 -0.002   16 -0.003   20 0.4975   18  0.428   17 -0.025   14  0.020    1  0.659 P
DODGERS      17 15 157 120  0.020 16.087    9  0.008    8  0.009    1  0.035   11 0.5083   19  0.414   16 -0.000   11  0.069   18 -0.100 P
PHILLIES     17 15 125 137 -0.000 15.955   11  0.007   11  0.007   22 -0.007    9 0.5097   20  0.405   20 -0.050   12  0.035   16  0.012 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       18 14 123 107  0.032 16.266    4  0.012    4  0.016    7  0.018    4 0.5137   21  0.344   21 -0.077   10  0.113   28 -0.450 P
ATHLETICS    19 14 139 152 -0.012 16.307    3  0.012    3  0.016   21 -0.006    6 0.5134   22  0.315   23 -0.124    9  0.113    6  0.305 P
BREWERS      17 15 125 131 -0.017 15.718   13  0.005   12  0.005   14 -0.000   14 0.5053   23  0.312   22 -0.122    7  0.121   15  0.054 P
METS         13 13  88  96 -0.003 12.933   16  0.001   16 -0.000   19 -0.005   17 0.5033   24  0.309   24 -0.129    8  0.118   30 -0.797 P
ORIOLES      15 16 120 126  0.066 16.285   15  0.002   15  0.002   15 -0.001   15 0.5051   25  0.281   26 -0.148    6  0.145    9  0.262 P
YANKEES      16 15 127 109  0.017 15.556   14  0.005   13  0.005    4  0.022   13 0.5063   26  0.273   25 -0.131    5  0.175   19 -0.111 P
MARINERS     17 15 127 134  0.066 16.794    6  0.010    6  0.012   13  0.002    8 0.5100   27  0.246   28 -0.173    4  0.177   13  0.088 P
INDIANS      17 13 127 116 -0.061 14.158    8  0.008    9  0.009   12  0.005   12 0.5067   28  0.238   29 -0.176    3  0.186   12  0.139 P
BLUE JAYS    16 14 144 114  0.012 15.012   10  0.007   10  0.008    5  0.020    7 0.5121   29  0.223   27 -0.173    1  0.213    2  0.552 P
PIRATES      13 17 106 135 -0.062 14.315   28 -0.012   28 -0.019   29 -0.033   27 0.4798   30  0.183   30 -0.257    2  0.191    5  0.341 P

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKIES      12 19 151 167  0.113 16.891   27 -0.009   27 -0.015   18 -0.004   28 0.4787    3  0.654    3  0.183   29 -0.191   10  0.223 P
DIAMONDBACKS 15 16 154 164  0.032 15.859   18  0.000   18 -0.001   17 -0.003   23 0.4941    6  0.608    7  0.139   25 -0.146    4  0.354 P
GIANTS       18 13 138 108  0.068 16.176    1  0.017    1  0.022    2  0.034    2 0.5176   10  0.536   10  0.108   17 -0.040   27 -0.449 P
DODGERS      17 15 157 120  0.020 16.087    9  0.008    8  0.009    1  0.035   11 0.5083   19  0.414   16 -0.000   11  0.069   18 -0.100 P
PADRES       18 14 123 107  0.032 16.266    4  0.012    4  0.016    7  0.018    4 0.5137   21  0.344   21 -0.077   10  0.113   28 -0.450 P

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS    18 14 145 130 -0.048 15.279    7  0.008    7  0.010   11  0.007    5 0.5136    7  0.600    5  0.141   24 -0.127   21 -0.183 P
CUBS         15 16 146 152 -0.054 14.819   24 -0.005   25 -0.008   25 -0.018   24 0.4933   12  0.527   12  0.048   20 -0.084   11  0.195 P
REDS         14 15 152 152  0.023 14.725   20 -0.001   20 -0.002   16 -0.003   20 0.4975   18  0.428   17 -0.025   14  0.020    1  0.659 P
BREWERS      17 15 125 131 -0.017 15.718   13  0.005   12  0.005   14 -0.000   14 0.5053   23  0.312   22 -0.122    7  0.121   15  0.054 P
PIRATES      13 17 106 135 -0.062 14.315   28 -0.012   28 -0.019   29 -0.033   27 0.4798   30  0.183   30 -0.257    2  0.191    5  0.341 P

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BRAVES       15 16 143 151 -0.009 15.344   23 -0.002   23 -0.005   20 -0.005   22 0.4957   11  0.529   11  0.063   19 -0.074    8  0.286 P
NATIONALS    12 15  93 115  0.035 13.871   25 -0.005   24 -0.008   24 -0.011   25 0.4896   13  0.505   14  0.036   18 -0.058   25 -0.331 P
MARLINS      14 16 127 107  0.064 15.652   21 -0.001   21 -0.002    6  0.019   21 0.4973   16  0.437   15  0.004   13  0.034   24 -0.262 P
PHILLIES     17 15 125 137 -0.000 15.955   11  0.007   11  0.007   22 -0.007    9 0.5097   20  0.405   20 -0.050   12  0.035   16  0.012 P
METS         13 13  88  96 -0.003 12.933   16  0.001   16 -0.000   19 -0.005   17 0.5033   24  0.309   24 -0.129    8  0.118   30 -0.797 P

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      16 17 135 147  0.002 16.495   22 -0.001   22 -0.004   23 -0.011   19 0.4977    4  0.640    4  0.163   27 -0.184   26 -0.406 P
ANGELS       13 17 135 167  0.041 15.523   26 -0.006   26 -0.011   28 -0.023   26 0.4886    5  0.620    8  0.131   26 -0.177   14  0.080 P
ASTROS       16 15 151 123 -0.047 14.758   19 -0.000   19 -0.001    8  0.018   16 0.5039    8  0.586    6  0.139   23 -0.104   17 -0.058 P
ATHLETICS    19 14 139 152 -0.012 16.307    3  0.012    3  0.016   21 -0.006    6 0.5134   22  0.315   23 -0.124    9  0.113    6  0.305 P
MARINERS     17 15 127 134  0.066 16.794    6  0.010    6  0.012   13  0.002    8 0.5100   27  0.246   28 -0.173    4  0.177   13  0.088 P

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        11 19 140 142 -0.101 13.776   29 -0.029   29 -0.035   26 -0.019   29 0.4655    1  0.723    1  0.236   30 -0.274   20 -0.164 P
TIGERS        9 23 101 169 -0.010 16.133   30 -0.063   30 -0.047   30 -0.066   30 0.4484   14  0.490   18 -0.034   22 -0.099   23 -0.241 P
WHITE SOX    16 13 143 107 -0.055 13.682   12  0.006   14  0.005    3  0.023   10 0.5096   15  0.477   13  0.044   15  0.001   22 -0.213 P
ROYALS       16 14 133 147 -0.087 13.973   17  0.001   17 -0.001   27 -0.022   18 0.4990   17  0.436   19 -0.038   16 -0.006    3  0.419 P
INDIANS      17 13 127 116 -0.061 14.158    8  0.008    9  0.009   12  0.005   12 0.5067   28  0.238   29 -0.176    3  0.186   12  0.139 P

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAYS         18 15 145 141  0.032 16.824    5  0.010    5  0.013   10  0.011    3 0.5149    2  0.667    2  0.211   28 -0.189   29 -0.515 P
RED SOX      19 13 166 140 -0.039 15.350    2  0.013    2  0.017    9  0.016    1 0.5186    9  0.567    9  0.120   21 -0.087    7  0.303 P
ORIOLES      15 16 120 126  0.066 16.285   15  0.002   15  0.002   15 -0.001   15 0.5051   25  0.281   26 -0.148    6  0.145    9  0.262 P
YANKEES      16 15 127 109  0.017 15.556   14  0.005   13  0.005    4  0.022   13 0.5063   26  0.273   25 -0.131    5  0.175   19 -0.111 P
BLUE JAYS    16 14 144 114  0.012 15.012   10  0.007   10  0.008    5  0.020    7 0.5121   29  0.223   27 -0.173    1  0.213    2  0.552 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    80 77 0.510    1  0.123
AL EAST    84 73 0.535    2  0.107
NL EAST    71 75 0.486    3 -0.014
AL WEST    81 78 0.509    4 -0.028
NL CENTRAL 77 77 0.500    5 -0.072
AL CENTRAL 69 82 0.457    6 -0.117

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.071 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.005 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri May  7 05:30:09 2021
games through: Thu May  6 2021

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