Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKIES       39 101 530 894  0.018 70.837   30 -0.352   30 -0.356   30 -0.415   30 0.4467   26  0.361   30 -0.535   28 -0.295    1  0.682
PHILLIES      81  59 665 565 -0.019 68.099    4  0.108    4  0.116    5  0.108    4 0.5173   29  0.308   21 -0.057    1  0.272    2  0.301
DODGERS       78  62 710 616 -0.020 68.064    8  0.047    8  0.080    7  0.091    8 0.5117   16  0.474   10  0.069    7  0.113    3  0.273
ORIOLES       64  76 612 693  0.017 70.435   23 -0.020   23 -0.059   24 -0.081   22 0.4918   15  0.492   23 -0.086   23 -0.075    4  0.199
ATHLETICS     64  77 638 726  0.007 70.310   25 -0.030   25 -0.070   22 -0.069   25 0.4898    8  0.594   14  0.019   26 -0.157    5  0.188
TWINS         62  78 592 669 -0.001 69.389   27 -0.060   27 -0.093   25 -0.083   27 0.4858   21  0.446   26 -0.129   20 -0.036    6  0.161
TIGERS        81  60 680 595 -0.020 68.612    5  0.092    5  0.109    6  0.101    5 0.5163   17  0.468    9  0.074    5  0.128    7  0.154
DIAMONDBACKS  70  71 692 673 -0.020 68.658   20 -0.003   20 -0.019   15  0.016   20 0.4971   10  0.588    8  0.099   22 -0.067    8  0.118
RAYS          71  69 640 577  0.011 69.877   13  0.008   13  0.019   10  0.065   13 0.5030   24  0.395   18 -0.026    4  0.157    9  0.105
BLUE JAYS     81  59 704 642  0.014 69.996    2  0.149    2  0.136    9  0.086    2 0.5201    9  0.589    5  0.170   17  0.002   10  0.071
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
REDS          70  70 634 607 -0.001 69.252   17  0.002   17 -0.001   13  0.026   17 0.5000   20  0.455   17 -0.013   13  0.065   11  0.058
RED SOX       78  63 696 595  0.006 69.992    7  0.061    7  0.090    4  0.112    7 0.5133   12  0.545    6  0.155   12  0.069   12  0.031
METS          75  65 674 605 -0.019 68.163   11  0.017   11  0.046   12  0.059   12 0.5066   14  0.505   11  0.065   16  0.053   13  0.027
NATIONALS     56  83 588 758  0.003 69.304   28 -0.199   28 -0.157   29 -0.206   28 0.4768    4  0.657   19 -0.056   30 -0.355   14  0.026
BRAVES        63  77 618 633  0.004 69.609   26 -0.038   26 -0.078   18 -0.018   26 0.4884   13  0.507   16 -0.011   18 -0.026   15 -0.021
GUARDIANS     69  70 540 596 -0.002 68.840   19 -0.001   19 -0.008   23 -0.069   19 0.4986   27  0.358   28 -0.192   15  0.054   16 -0.029
ANGELS        66  74 596 698  0.027 70.953   21 -0.006   21 -0.030   26 -0.090   21 0.4952    7  0.595   15 -0.000   27 -0.180   17 -0.030
WHITE SOX     53  88 569 647  0.006 70.305   29 -0.243   29 -0.197   28 -0.104   29 0.4708   19  0.457   27 -0.141   21 -0.067   18 -0.033
ASTROS        77  64 593 582 -0.019 68.780   10  0.026   10  0.062   17  0.004   10 0.5093   23  0.403   22 -0.081    8  0.088   19 -0.053
PADRES        76  64 592 544  0.000 69.253    9  0.035    9  0.070   11  0.063    9 0.5107   28  0.321   24 -0.091    2  0.217   20 -0.063
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PIRATES       64  77 517 572  0.018 70.936   24 -0.024   24 -0.063   21 -0.044   24 0.4907   30  0.245   29 -0.260    3  0.172   21 -0.066
GIANTS        71  69 605 583 -0.010 68.789   16  0.004   16  0.006   16  0.008   15 0.5006   22  0.426   20 -0.056   10  0.073   22 -0.095
CUBS          80  60 688 573  0.006 69.467    3  0.118    3  0.120    3  0.136    3 0.5179   11  0.567    3  0.199   11  0.072   23 -0.106
YANKEES       78  62 741 598  0.013 69.880    6  0.082    6  0.102    2  0.168    6 0.5158    2  0.702    1  0.363   19 -0.026   24 -0.138
CARDINALS     70  71 613 649  0.001 69.969   18 -0.000   18 -0.007   20 -0.040   18 0.4987    6  0.608   12  0.062   25 -0.143   25 -0.158
BREWERS       86  55 717 555 -0.006 69.236    1  0.217    1  0.175    1  0.185    1 0.5258    5  0.635    2  0.313   14  0.056   26 -0.228
ROYALS        71  69 537 544 -0.004 69.145   15  0.004   15  0.009   19 -0.027   16 0.5002   25  0.384   25 -0.127    9  0.074   27 -0.267
MARLINS       65  75 606 699  0.007 69.848   22 -0.018   22 -0.055   27 -0.096   23 0.4913    1  0.742    7  0.139   29 -0.330   28 -0.308
MARINERS      73  67 638 627  0.016 70.186   12  0.016   12  0.044   14  0.023   11 0.5068    3  0.665    4  0.181   24 -0.134   29 -0.342
RANGERS       72  69 606 516 -0.005 69.452   14  0.007   14  0.016    8  0.087   14 0.5027   18  0.460   13  0.052    6  0.121   30 -0.458
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROCKIES       39 101 530 894  0.018 70.837   30 -0.352   30 -0.356   30 -0.415   30 0.4467   26  0.361   30 -0.535   28 -0.295    1  0.682
DODGERS       78  62 710 616 -0.020 68.064    8  0.047    8  0.080    7  0.091    8 0.5117   16  0.474   10  0.069    7  0.113    3  0.273
DIAMONDBACKS  70  71 692 673 -0.020 68.658   20 -0.003   20 -0.019   15  0.016   20 0.4971   10  0.588    8  0.099   22 -0.067    8  0.118
PADRES        76  64 592 544  0.000 69.253    9  0.035    9  0.070   11  0.063    9 0.5107   28  0.321   24 -0.091    2  0.217   20 -0.063
GIANTS        71  69 605 583 -0.010 68.789   16  0.004   16  0.006   16  0.008   15 0.5006   22  0.426   20 -0.056   10  0.073   22 -0.095

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
REDS          70  70 634 607 -0.001 69.252   17  0.002   17 -0.001   13  0.026   17 0.5000   20  0.455   17 -0.013   13  0.065   11  0.058
PIRATES       64  77 517 572  0.018 70.936   24 -0.024   24 -0.063   21 -0.044   24 0.4907   30  0.245   29 -0.260    3  0.172   21 -0.066
CUBS          80  60 688 573  0.006 69.467    3  0.118    3  0.120    3  0.136    3 0.5179   11  0.567    3  0.199   11  0.072   23 -0.106
CARDINALS     70  71 613 649  0.001 69.969   18 -0.000   18 -0.007   20 -0.040   18 0.4987    6  0.608   12  0.062   25 -0.143   25 -0.158
BREWERS       86  55 717 555 -0.006 69.236    1  0.217    1  0.175    1  0.185    1 0.5258    5  0.635    2  0.313   14  0.056   26 -0.228

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES      81  59 665 565 -0.019 68.099    4  0.108    4  0.116    5  0.108    4 0.5173   29  0.308   21 -0.057    1  0.272    2  0.301
METS          75  65 674 605 -0.019 68.163   11  0.017   11  0.046   12  0.059   12 0.5066   14  0.505   11  0.065   16  0.053   13  0.027
NATIONALS     56  83 588 758  0.003 69.304   28 -0.199   28 -0.157   29 -0.206   28 0.4768    4  0.657   19 -0.056   30 -0.355   14  0.026
BRAVES        63  77 618 633  0.004 69.609   26 -0.038   26 -0.078   18 -0.018   26 0.4884   13  0.507   16 -0.011   18 -0.026   15 -0.021
MARLINS       65  75 606 699  0.007 69.848   22 -0.018   22 -0.055   27 -0.096   23 0.4913    1  0.742    7  0.139   29 -0.330   28 -0.308

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ATHLETICS     64  77 638 726  0.007 70.310   25 -0.030   25 -0.070   22 -0.069   25 0.4898    8  0.594   14  0.019   26 -0.157    5  0.188
ANGELS        66  74 596 698  0.027 70.953   21 -0.006   21 -0.030   26 -0.090   21 0.4952    7  0.595   15 -0.000   27 -0.180   17 -0.030
ASTROS        77  64 593 582 -0.019 68.780   10  0.026   10  0.062   17  0.004   10 0.5093   23  0.403   22 -0.081    8  0.088   19 -0.053
MARINERS      73  67 638 627  0.016 70.186   12  0.016   12  0.044   14  0.023   11 0.5068    3  0.665    4  0.181   24 -0.134   29 -0.342
RANGERS       72  69 606 516 -0.005 69.452   14  0.007   14  0.016    8  0.087   14 0.5027   18  0.460   13  0.052    6  0.121   30 -0.458

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS         62  78 592 669 -0.001 69.389   27 -0.060   27 -0.093   25 -0.083   27 0.4858   21  0.446   26 -0.129   20 -0.036    6  0.161
TIGERS        81  60 680 595 -0.020 68.612    5  0.092    5  0.109    6  0.101    5 0.5163   17  0.468    9  0.074    5  0.128    7  0.154
GUARDIANS     69  70 540 596 -0.002 68.840   19 -0.001   19 -0.008   23 -0.069   19 0.4986   27  0.358   28 -0.192   15  0.054   16 -0.029
WHITE SOX     53  88 569 647  0.006 70.305   29 -0.243   29 -0.197   28 -0.104   29 0.4708   19  0.457   27 -0.141   21 -0.067   18 -0.033
ROYALS        71  69 537 544 -0.004 69.145   15  0.004   15  0.009   19 -0.027   16 0.5002   25  0.384   25 -0.127    9  0.074   27 -0.267

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORIOLES       64  76 612 693  0.017 70.435   23 -0.020   23 -0.059   24 -0.081   22 0.4918   15  0.492   23 -0.086   23 -0.075    4  0.199
RAYS          71  69 640 577  0.011 69.877   13  0.008   13  0.019   10  0.065   13 0.5030   24  0.395   18 -0.026    4  0.157    9  0.105
BLUE JAYS     81  59 704 642  0.014 69.996    2  0.149    2  0.136    9  0.086    2 0.5201    9  0.589    5  0.170   17  0.002   10  0.071
RED SOX       78  63 696 595  0.006 69.992    7  0.061    7  0.090    4  0.112    7 0.5133   12  0.545    6  0.155   12  0.069   12  0.031
YANKEES       78  62 741 598  0.013 69.880    6  0.082    6  0.102    2  0.168    6 0.5158    2  0.702    1  0.363   19 -0.026   24 -0.138

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    372 329 0.531    1  0.096
NL CENTRAL 370 333 0.526    2  0.071
AL WEST    352 351 0.501    3 -0.012
NL EAST    340 359 0.486    4 -0.041
AL CENTRAL 336 365 0.479    5 -0.049
NL WEST    334 367 0.476    6 -0.061

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.076 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Sep  5 05:30:11 2025
games through: Thu Sep  4 2025

Back to Dolphin rankings main page.