Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       48 28 371 284 -0.014 36.742    1  0.194    1  0.178    3  0.169    1 0.5301   14  0.482    8  0.196   10  0.143   14 -0.037
DODGERS      46 30 420 345  0.010 37.462    2  0.164    2  0.153    4  0.138    2 0.5262    7  0.621    4  0.294   18 -0.018    6  0.293
CUBS         45 29 397 291 -0.009 35.865    3  0.161    3  0.146    2  0.183    3 0.5254    9  0.607    1  0.325   16  0.041   19 -0.066
METS         45 30 333 265 -0.030 35.761    4  0.129    4  0.124    5  0.115    5 0.5197   28  0.204   21 -0.093    1  0.322   17 -0.055
PHILLIES     45 30 348 314 -0.049 35.312    5  0.113    5  0.114   11  0.052    6 0.5191   26  0.260   24 -0.111    3  0.215    2  0.387
YANKEES      43 31 379 278 -0.008 35.914    6  0.103    6  0.107    1  0.188    4 0.5214   16  0.430    9  0.167    4  0.208    9  0.120
ASTROS       43 32 321 269 -0.010 36.455    7  0.089    7  0.096    6  0.102    7 0.5160   19  0.343   14  0.007    6  0.196   12  0.055
GIANTS       42 33 315 272 -0.014 36.329    8  0.066    8  0.075    9  0.067    8 0.5136   23  0.299   20 -0.064    5  0.199   26 -0.214
PADRES       40 34 312 291  0.018 36.821    9  0.056    9  0.066   13  0.052   10 0.5118   21  0.330   19 -0.054    9  0.157   18 -0.056
BLUE JAYS    40 34 320 328  0.018 36.878   10  0.055   10  0.066   18  0.008    9 0.5127   22  0.320   23 -0.105   11  0.121    5  0.304
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      40 35 327 307  0.030 37.684   11  0.051   11  0.062   10  0.058   12 0.5092    6  0.659    6  0.250   22 -0.135   30 -0.539
CARDINALS    40 35 353 322  0.024 37.506   12  0.050   12  0.060    8  0.079   11 0.5110    3  0.695    3  0.307   23 -0.149   23 -0.118
RAYS         41 34 346 281 -0.012 36.362   13  0.048   13  0.057    7  0.097   13 0.5086   13  0.500   10  0.140   15  0.054   21 -0.087
RED SOX      39 37 358 340  0.015 37.768   14  0.023   14  0.027   14  0.043   17 0.5024    5  0.677    5  0.254   24 -0.168   13  0.012
GUARDIANS    37 36 278 302  0.030 36.781   16  0.019   15  0.026   21 -0.025   14 0.5062   15  0.442   17 -0.035   17 -0.016   25 -0.187
REDS         39 36 350 313 -0.006 36.600   15  0.022   16  0.024   12  0.052   16 0.5028    8  0.610    7  0.197   21 -0.094   20 -0.080
DIAMONDBACKS 37 37 375 384  0.035 37.372   17  0.014   17  0.019   17  0.022   15 0.5028    2  0.756    2  0.312   26 -0.269   10  0.093
TWINS        37 37 314 303  0.002 36.393   18  0.003   18  0.001   16  0.030   18 0.5007   17  0.412   16 -0.006   13  0.065    8  0.129
ROYALS       37 38 253 270  0.016 37.402   19 -0.000   19 -0.000   22 -0.029   21 0.4976   25  0.283   26 -0.173   12  0.115   28 -0.377
MARINERS     37 36 317 315 -0.031 35.019   20 -0.005   20 -0.008   20 -0.016   19 0.4996   12  0.516   12  0.041   19 -0.073   24 -0.177
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ANGELS       36 38 303 363  0.009 36.820   21 -0.011   21 -0.013   24 -0.119   20 0.4993   11  0.580   15 -0.002   25 -0.236   22 -0.107
RANGERS      36 39 270 254 -0.011 36.538   22 -0.022   22 -0.033   19  0.006   22 0.4924   27  0.254   25 -0.162    7  0.174   29 -0.439
BRAVES       34 39 307 283 -0.006 35.648   23 -0.036   23 -0.051   15  0.037   23 0.4911   24  0.297   22 -0.096    8  0.169   16 -0.043
ORIOLES      32 42 297 373 -0.001 36.491   24 -0.081   24 -0.094   25 -0.133   24 0.4849   18  0.390   27 -0.188   20 -0.078    4  0.305
PIRATES      30 46 245 306  0.058 39.247   25 -0.109   25 -0.115   23 -0.094   25 0.4810   30  0.009   29 -0.445    2  0.257   11  0.085
NATIONALS    31 44 310 380 -0.049 35.660   27 -0.159   26 -0.148   27 -0.177   27 0.4739   10  0.606   18 -0.036   28 -0.319   15 -0.040
MARLINS      29 44 295 384 -0.012 35.797   26 -0.159   27 -0.149   28 -0.178   28 0.4738    1  0.763   11  0.120   30 -0.475   27 -0.291
ATHLETICS    31 46 328 454 -0.021 37.471   28 -0.161   28 -0.149   29 -0.206   26 0.4747    4  0.691   13  0.018   29 -0.430    3  0.307
WHITE SOX    23 52 260 335  0.013 37.457   29 -0.254   29 -0.263   26 -0.150   29 0.4546   29  0.203   28 -0.357   14  0.058    7  0.167
ROCKIES      17 58 261 457  0.038 38.484   30 -0.361   30 -0.369   30 -0.371   30 0.4378   20  0.341   30 -0.467   27 -0.275    1  0.654

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      46 30 420 345  0.010 37.462    2  0.164    2  0.153    4  0.138    2 0.5262    7  0.621    4  0.294   18 -0.018    6  0.293
GIANTS       42 33 315 272 -0.014 36.329    8  0.066    8  0.075    9  0.067    8 0.5136   23  0.299   20 -0.064    5  0.199   26 -0.214
PADRES       40 34 312 291  0.018 36.821    9  0.056    9  0.066   13  0.052   10 0.5118   21  0.330   19 -0.054    9  0.157   18 -0.056
DIAMONDBACKS 37 37 375 384  0.035 37.372   17  0.014   17  0.019   17  0.022   15 0.5028    2  0.756    2  0.312   26 -0.269   10  0.093
ROCKIES      17 58 261 457  0.038 38.484   30 -0.361   30 -0.369   30 -0.371   30 0.4378   20  0.341   30 -0.467   27 -0.275    1  0.654

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         45 29 397 291 -0.009 35.865    3  0.161    3  0.146    2  0.183    3 0.5254    9  0.607    1  0.325   16  0.041   19 -0.066
BREWERS      40 35 327 307  0.030 37.684   11  0.051   11  0.062   10  0.058   12 0.5092    6  0.659    6  0.250   22 -0.135   30 -0.539
CARDINALS    40 35 353 322  0.024 37.506   12  0.050   12  0.060    8  0.079   11 0.5110    3  0.695    3  0.307   23 -0.149   23 -0.118
REDS         39 36 350 313 -0.006 36.600   15  0.022   16  0.024   12  0.052   16 0.5028    8  0.610    7  0.197   21 -0.094   20 -0.080
PIRATES      30 46 245 306  0.058 39.247   25 -0.109   25 -0.115   23 -0.094   25 0.4810   30  0.009   29 -0.445    2  0.257   11  0.085

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         45 30 333 265 -0.030 35.761    4  0.129    4  0.124    5  0.115    5 0.5197   28  0.204   21 -0.093    1  0.322   17 -0.055
PHILLIES     45 30 348 314 -0.049 35.312    5  0.113    5  0.114   11  0.052    6 0.5191   26  0.260   24 -0.111    3  0.215    2  0.387
BRAVES       34 39 307 283 -0.006 35.648   23 -0.036   23 -0.051   15  0.037   23 0.4911   24  0.297   22 -0.096    8  0.169   16 -0.043
NATIONALS    31 44 310 380 -0.049 35.660   27 -0.159   26 -0.148   27 -0.177   27 0.4739   10  0.606   18 -0.036   28 -0.319   15 -0.040
MARLINS      29 44 295 384 -0.012 35.797   26 -0.159   27 -0.149   28 -0.178   28 0.4738    1  0.763   11  0.120   30 -0.475   27 -0.291

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       43 32 321 269 -0.010 36.455    7  0.089    7  0.096    6  0.102    7 0.5160   19  0.343   14  0.007    6  0.196   12  0.055
MARINERS     37 36 317 315 -0.031 35.019   20 -0.005   20 -0.008   20 -0.016   19 0.4996   12  0.516   12  0.041   19 -0.073   24 -0.177
ANGELS       36 38 303 363  0.009 36.820   21 -0.011   21 -0.013   24 -0.119   20 0.4993   11  0.580   15 -0.002   25 -0.236   22 -0.107
RANGERS      36 39 270 254 -0.011 36.538   22 -0.022   22 -0.033   19  0.006   22 0.4924   27  0.254   25 -0.162    7  0.174   29 -0.439
ATHLETICS    31 46 328 454 -0.021 37.471   28 -0.161   28 -0.149   29 -0.206   26 0.4747    4  0.691   13  0.018   29 -0.430    3  0.307

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       48 28 371 284 -0.014 36.742    1  0.194    1  0.178    3  0.169    1 0.5301   14  0.482    8  0.196   10  0.143   14 -0.037
GUARDIANS    37 36 278 302  0.030 36.781   16  0.019   15  0.026   21 -0.025   14 0.5062   15  0.442   17 -0.035   17 -0.016   25 -0.187
TWINS        37 37 314 303  0.002 36.393   18  0.003   18  0.001   16  0.030   18 0.5007   17  0.412   16 -0.006   13  0.065    8  0.129
ROYALS       37 38 253 270  0.016 37.402   19 -0.000   19 -0.000   22 -0.029   21 0.4976   25  0.283   26 -0.173   12  0.115   28 -0.377
WHITE SOX    23 52 260 335  0.013 37.457   29 -0.254   29 -0.263   26 -0.150   29 0.4546   29  0.203   28 -0.357   14  0.058    7  0.167

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      43 31 379 278 -0.008 35.914    6  0.103    6  0.107    1  0.188    4 0.5214   16  0.430    9  0.167    4  0.208    9  0.120
BLUE JAYS    40 34 320 328  0.018 36.878   10  0.055   10  0.066   18  0.008    9 0.5127   22  0.320   23 -0.105   11  0.121    5  0.304
RAYS         41 34 346 281 -0.012 36.362   13  0.048   13  0.057    7  0.097   13 0.5086   13  0.500   10  0.140   15  0.054   21 -0.087
RED SOX      39 37 358 340  0.015 37.768   14  0.023   14  0.027   14  0.043   17 0.5024    5  0.677    5  0.254   24 -0.168   13  0.012
ORIOLES      32 42 297 373 -0.001 36.491   24 -0.081   24 -0.094   25 -0.133   24 0.4849   18  0.390   27 -0.188   20 -0.078    4  0.305

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 194 181 0.517    1  0.085
AL EAST    195 178 0.523    2  0.062
AL CENTRAL 182 191 0.488    3 -0.002
NL WEST    182 192 0.487    4 -0.024
NL EAST    184 187 0.496    5 -0.046
AL WEST    183 191 0.489    6 -0.071

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.076 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Jun 20 05:30:06 2025
games through: Thu Jun 19 2025

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