Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         54 36 492 366  0.008 44.402    2  0.163    2  0.148    1  0.202    2 0.5253   10  0.623    1  0.348   15  0.056   11  0.040
TIGERS       58 34 461 351 -0.026 44.218    1  0.196    1  0.173    2  0.175    1 0.5294   12  0.584    3  0.283   13  0.067   25 -0.165
YANKEES      49 41 462 367 -0.009 43.891   10  0.040   10  0.058    3  0.148    9 0.5121   11  0.590    5  0.262   16  0.034   18 -0.061
ASTROS       55 36 401 332 -0.010 44.398    3  0.153    3  0.142    4  0.117    3 0.5249   18  0.399   14  0.059    5  0.176   17 -0.060
BREWERS      51 40 429 364 -0.003 44.640    8  0.068    8  0.083    5  0.102    8 0.5126    3  0.716    2  0.339   24 -0.136   30 -0.493
RAYS         49 42 432 367 -0.005 44.583   11  0.032   12  0.051    6  0.092   11 0.5086   14  0.567   10  0.184   17 -0.001   21 -0.084
DODGERS      56 36 501 432 -0.030 44.128    4  0.146    4  0.139    7  0.090    4 0.5222    8  0.632    7  0.244   18 -0.064    4  0.288
PHILLIES     53 38 414 361 -0.025 43.826    6  0.096    6  0.104    8  0.088    6 0.5171   28  0.173   22 -0.155    1  0.331    2  0.449
METS         52 39 402 358 -0.018 44.147    7  0.079    7  0.093    9  0.063    7 0.5137   20  0.356   18 -0.032    7  0.158   23 -0.102
RED SOX      47 45 457 418 -0.001 45.305   16  0.008   16  0.016   10  0.052   15 0.5020    5  0.696    4  0.269   25 -0.166   12  0.040
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CARDINALS    48 43 414 399  0.044 46.440    9  0.045    9  0.064   11  0.051   10 0.5106    7  0.650    8  0.224   22 -0.121   24 -0.141
BLUE JAYS    53 38 420 404  0.008 45.122    5  0.117    5  0.121   12  0.048    5 0.5207   17  0.410   16 -0.002   11  0.097    7  0.243
REDS         46 45 416 388  0.014 45.345   15  0.008   15  0.016   13  0.039   16 0.5014   13  0.581   12  0.145   19 -0.067   22 -0.099
GIANTS       50 42 384 352 -0.028 44.313   13  0.026   13  0.046   14  0.031   14 0.5072   27  0.255   21 -0.148    3  0.210   19 -0.066
MARINERS     48 42 402 380 -0.008 44.079   14  0.023   14  0.042   15  0.029   13 0.5080    9  0.624   11  0.176   21 -0.118   28 -0.373
PADRES       48 42 366 357  0.006 44.592   12  0.030   11  0.051   16  0.020   12 0.5081   24  0.296   20 -0.125    6  0.165   14 -0.034
RANGERS      44 47 345 321 -0.015 44.340   21 -0.017   21 -0.031   17  0.015   22 0.4944   25  0.263   23 -0.157    4  0.187   27 -0.361
DIAMONDBACKS 45 46 467 464 -0.012 44.429   18 -0.009   18 -0.016   18  0.010   19 0.4966    2  0.729    6  0.260   26 -0.240   10  0.083
TWINS        43 47 374 392  0.010 44.764   20 -0.014   20 -0.026   19 -0.012   18 0.4966   19  0.356   19 -0.107   12  0.084    5  0.269
BRAVES       39 50 357 353 -0.020 43.192   26 -0.082   26 -0.099   20 -0.018   26 0.4835   23  0.296   25 -0.163    9  0.127   16 -0.042
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PIRATES      38 54 313 356  0.059 47.634   25 -0.073   25 -0.091   21 -0.043   25 0.4851   30  0.043   28 -0.382    2  0.295    9  0.102
ROYALS       44 48 313 337  0.014 45.992   19 -0.014   19 -0.023   22 -0.047   21 0.4953   26  0.257   27 -0.224    8  0.130   26 -0.301
ANGELS       44 46 385 433  0.007 44.768   17 -0.007   17 -0.012   23 -0.073   17 0.4994   15  0.524   17 -0.020   23 -0.125   13  0.027
GUARDIANS    41 48 319 376  0.038 45.367   22 -0.019   22 -0.034   24 -0.077   20 0.4958   22  0.303   26 -0.216   14  0.063   20 -0.074
MARLINS      41 48 375 442 -0.002 44.004   23 -0.036   23 -0.059   25 -0.105   24 0.4888    1  0.795    9  0.212   30 -0.423   29 -0.435
ORIOLES      40 49 371 453  0.018 44.684   24 -0.040   24 -0.062   26 -0.119   23 0.4889   16  0.417   24 -0.162   20 -0.076    3  0.361
WHITE SOX    30 61 315 403  0.008 45.412   29 -0.243   29 -0.239   27 -0.153   29 0.4606   29  0.143   29 -0.419   10  0.113    8  0.167
NATIONALS    37 53 397 483 -0.026 43.716   28 -0.150   28 -0.141   28 -0.171   28 0.4762    4  0.709   13  0.059   29 -0.401   15 -0.038
ATHLETICS    37 55 384 524  0.014 46.131   27 -0.136   27 -0.133   29 -0.179   27 0.4783    6  0.657   15 -0.001   28 -0.358    6  0.265
ROCKIES      21 70 324 559  0.022 46.177   30 -0.390   30 -0.381   30 -0.382   30 0.4357   21  0.342   30 -0.490   27 -0.275    1  0.594

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      56 36 501 432 -0.030 44.128    4  0.146    4  0.139    7  0.090    4 0.5222    8  0.632    7  0.244   18 -0.064    4  0.288
GIANTS       50 42 384 352 -0.028 44.313   13  0.026   13  0.046   14  0.031   14 0.5072   27  0.255   21 -0.148    3  0.210   19 -0.066
PADRES       48 42 366 357  0.006 44.592   12  0.030   11  0.051   16  0.020   12 0.5081   24  0.296   20 -0.125    6  0.165   14 -0.034
DIAMONDBACKS 45 46 467 464 -0.012 44.429   18 -0.009   18 -0.016   18  0.010   19 0.4966    2  0.729    6  0.260   26 -0.240   10  0.083
ROCKIES      21 70 324 559  0.022 46.177   30 -0.390   30 -0.381   30 -0.382   30 0.4357   21  0.342   30 -0.490   27 -0.275    1  0.594

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         54 36 492 366  0.008 44.402    2  0.163    2  0.148    1  0.202    2 0.5253   10  0.623    1  0.348   15  0.056   11  0.040
BREWERS      51 40 429 364 -0.003 44.640    8  0.068    8  0.083    5  0.102    8 0.5126    3  0.716    2  0.339   24 -0.136   30 -0.493
CARDINALS    48 43 414 399  0.044 46.440    9  0.045    9  0.064   11  0.051   10 0.5106    7  0.650    8  0.224   22 -0.121   24 -0.141
REDS         46 45 416 388  0.014 45.345   15  0.008   15  0.016   13  0.039   16 0.5014   13  0.581   12  0.145   19 -0.067   22 -0.099
PIRATES      38 54 313 356  0.059 47.634   25 -0.073   25 -0.091   21 -0.043   25 0.4851   30  0.043   28 -0.382    2  0.295    9  0.102

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     53 38 414 361 -0.025 43.826    6  0.096    6  0.104    8  0.088    6 0.5171   28  0.173   22 -0.155    1  0.331    2  0.449
METS         52 39 402 358 -0.018 44.147    7  0.079    7  0.093    9  0.063    7 0.5137   20  0.356   18 -0.032    7  0.158   23 -0.102
BRAVES       39 50 357 353 -0.020 43.192   26 -0.082   26 -0.099   20 -0.018   26 0.4835   23  0.296   25 -0.163    9  0.127   16 -0.042
MARLINS      41 48 375 442 -0.002 44.004   23 -0.036   23 -0.059   25 -0.105   24 0.4888    1  0.795    9  0.212   30 -0.423   29 -0.435
NATIONALS    37 53 397 483 -0.026 43.716   28 -0.150   28 -0.141   28 -0.171   28 0.4762    4  0.709   13  0.059   29 -0.401   15 -0.038

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       55 36 401 332 -0.010 44.398    3  0.153    3  0.142    4  0.117    3 0.5249   18  0.399   14  0.059    5  0.176   17 -0.060
MARINERS     48 42 402 380 -0.008 44.079   14  0.023   14  0.042   15  0.029   13 0.5080    9  0.624   11  0.176   21 -0.118   28 -0.373
RANGERS      44 47 345 321 -0.015 44.340   21 -0.017   21 -0.031   17  0.015   22 0.4944   25  0.263   23 -0.157    4  0.187   27 -0.361
ANGELS       44 46 385 433  0.007 44.768   17 -0.007   17 -0.012   23 -0.073   17 0.4994   15  0.524   17 -0.020   23 -0.125   13  0.027
ATHLETICS    37 55 384 524  0.014 46.131   27 -0.136   27 -0.133   29 -0.179   27 0.4783    6  0.657   15 -0.001   28 -0.358    6  0.265

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       58 34 461 351 -0.026 44.218    1  0.196    1  0.173    2  0.175    1 0.5294   12  0.584    3  0.283   13  0.067   25 -0.165
TWINS        43 47 374 392  0.010 44.764   20 -0.014   20 -0.026   19 -0.012   18 0.4966   19  0.356   19 -0.107   12  0.084    5  0.269
ROYALS       44 48 313 337  0.014 45.992   19 -0.014   19 -0.023   22 -0.047   21 0.4953   26  0.257   27 -0.224    8  0.130   26 -0.301
GUARDIANS    41 48 319 376  0.038 45.367   22 -0.019   22 -0.034   24 -0.077   20 0.4958   22  0.303   26 -0.216   14  0.063   20 -0.074
WHITE SOX    30 61 315 403  0.008 45.412   29 -0.243   29 -0.239   27 -0.153   29 0.4606   29  0.143   29 -0.419   10  0.113    8  0.167

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      49 41 462 367 -0.009 43.891   10  0.040   10  0.058    3  0.148    9 0.5121   11  0.590    5  0.262   16  0.034   18 -0.061
RAYS         49 42 432 367 -0.005 44.583   11  0.032   12  0.051    6  0.092   11 0.5086   14  0.567   10  0.184   17 -0.001   21 -0.084
RED SOX      47 45 457 418 -0.001 45.305   16  0.008   16  0.016   10  0.052   15 0.5020    5  0.696    4  0.269   25 -0.166   12  0.040
BLUE JAYS    53 38 420 404  0.008 45.122    5  0.117    5  0.121   12  0.048    5 0.5207   17  0.410   16 -0.002   11  0.097    7  0.243
ORIOLES      40 49 371 453  0.018 44.684   24 -0.040   24 -0.062   26 -0.119   23 0.4889   16  0.417   24 -0.162   20 -0.076    3  0.361

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 237 218 0.521    1  0.105
AL EAST    238 215 0.525    2  0.066
AL WEST    228 226 0.502    3 -0.026
AL CENTRAL 216 238 0.476    4 -0.035
NL EAST    222 228 0.493    5 -0.043
NL WEST    220 236 0.482    6 -0.065

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.081 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Tue Jul  8 05:30:06 2025
games through: Mon Jul  7 2025

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