Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         57 39 512 393  0.018 47.713    1  0.163    1  0.150    1  0.191    1 0.5244   12  0.581    3  0.295   12  0.087   12  0.069
YANKEES      53 43 501 390  0.000 47.077    9  0.066    9  0.077    2  0.172    8 0.5148   10  0.587    5  0.281   15  0.063   18 -0.046
TIGERS       59 38 482 395 -0.023 46.700    2  0.158    2  0.147    3  0.141    2 0.5244   11  0.584    6  0.247   17  0.035   19 -0.065
BREWERS      56 40 457 376 -0.015 46.484    5  0.104    5  0.112    4  0.119    6 0.5172    3  0.715    1  0.354   21 -0.115   30 -0.505
PHILLIES     55 41 438 375 -0.025 46.176    7  0.082    7  0.094    5  0.097    7 0.5153   28  0.199   21 -0.128    1  0.322    2  0.434
ASTROS       56 40 418 362 -0.012 46.713    4  0.106    4  0.115    6  0.091    4 0.5193   17  0.399   14  0.030    6  0.152   15 -0.026
RAYS         50 47 449 388  0.015 48.197   15  0.022   15  0.030    7  0.089   15 0.5048   15  0.478   12  0.098   14  0.080   13 -0.002
DODGERS      58 39 518 449 -0.024 46.661    3  0.131    3  0.131    8  0.089    3 0.5206    9  0.597    9  0.207   18 -0.030    3  0.329
RED SOX      53 45 491 430 -0.007 47.839   11  0.041   11  0.056    9  0.083   12 0.5079    6  0.682    4  0.285   22 -0.119   14 -0.010
METS         55 42 426 381 -0.020 46.906    8  0.072    8  0.088   10  0.058    9 0.5125   21  0.356   19 -0.039    5  0.155   22 -0.090
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS     51 45 451 419  0.017 47.832   12  0.039   12  0.055   11  0.054   10 0.5099    2  0.750    2  0.324   26 -0.216   29 -0.495
RANGERS      48 49 393 346 -0.007 47.391   19  0.001   20 -0.012   12  0.053   20 0.4987   19  0.380   17 -0.024    7  0.129   28 -0.482
BLUE JAYS    55 41 440 423  0.007 47.481    6  0.101    6  0.111   13  0.046    5 0.5183   18  0.383   18 -0.028    9  0.121    5  0.264
CARDINALS    51 46 444 427  0.023 48.614   13  0.036   13  0.051   14  0.043   13 0.5078    7  0.661    8  0.224   23 -0.138   24 -0.125
REDS         50 47 441 410 -0.012 47.241   16  0.015   16  0.015   15  0.031   16 0.5012   13  0.573   11  0.127   19 -0.066   25 -0.132
PADRES       52 44 383 376  0.002 47.326   10  0.048   10  0.063   16  0.017   11 0.5095   25  0.287   23 -0.138    4  0.171   20 -0.082
GIANTS       52 45 399 382 -0.020 46.949   14  0.029   14  0.041   17  0.012   14 0.5065   27  0.250   25 -0.172    3  0.196   16 -0.035
DIAMONDBACKS 47 50 493 488 -0.015 47.177   22 -0.012   22 -0.031   18  0.010   22 0.4947    5  0.702    7  0.231   25 -0.212   10  0.115
TWINS        47 49 402 410  0.011 47.662   17  0.003   18 -0.009   19  0.006   18 0.4991   20  0.357   20 -0.090   10  0.103    7  0.230
BRAVES       42 53 388 386 -0.020 46.044   25 -0.076   25 -0.096   20 -0.022   25 0.4846   22  0.346   22 -0.128   13  0.083   21 -0.084
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       47 50 328 356  0.010 48.255   21 -0.006   21 -0.016   21 -0.053   21 0.4963   26  0.256   27 -0.232    8  0.127   26 -0.266
PIRATES      39 58 326 379  0.058 50.080   26 -0.099   26 -0.111   22 -0.057   26 0.4822   30  0.049   28 -0.393    2  0.279   11  0.090
GUARDIANS    46 49 353 398  0.029 47.958   18  0.003   17 -0.006   23 -0.058   17 0.5005   23  0.337   24 -0.172   16  0.055   23 -0.103
ANGELS       47 49 418 480  0.010 47.754   20 -0.003   19 -0.010   24 -0.088   19 0.4989   14  0.539   16 -0.024   24 -0.152    9  0.116
MARLINS      44 51 408 463 -0.006 46.705   23 -0.035   23 -0.059   25 -0.090   24 0.4893    1  0.754   10  0.184   29 -0.364   27 -0.385
ORIOLES      43 52 393 483  0.015 47.504   24 -0.038   24 -0.061   26 -0.126   23 0.4895   16  0.409   26 -0.177   20 -0.074    4  0.321
ATHLETICS    41 57 417 551  0.011 48.900   27 -0.105   27 -0.115   27 -0.162   27 0.4817    8  0.643   15  0.001   28 -0.325    6  0.259
WHITE SOX    32 65 332 430  0.003 48.101   29 -0.249   29 -0.250   28 -0.167   29 0.4605   29  0.147   29 -0.432   11  0.097    8  0.139
NATIONALS    38 58 417 519 -0.014 47.017   28 -0.181   28 -0.162   29 -0.187   28 0.4737    4  0.707   13  0.039   30 -0.413   17 -0.038
ROCKIES      22 74 336 589  0.025 48.738   30 -0.417   30 -0.393   30 -0.397   30 0.4357   24  0.332   30 -0.515   27 -0.280    1  0.605
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      58 39 518 449 -0.024 46.661    3  0.131    3  0.131    8  0.089    3 0.5206    9  0.597    9  0.207   18 -0.030    3  0.329
PADRES       52 44 383 376  0.002 47.326   10  0.048   10  0.063   16  0.017   11 0.5095   25  0.287   23 -0.138    4  0.171   20 -0.082
GIANTS       52 45 399 382 -0.020 46.949   14  0.029   14  0.041   17  0.012   14 0.5065   27  0.250   25 -0.172    3  0.196   16 -0.035
DIAMONDBACKS 47 50 493 488 -0.015 47.177   22 -0.012   22 -0.031   18  0.010   22 0.4947    5  0.702    7  0.231   25 -0.212   10  0.115
ROCKIES      22 74 336 589  0.025 48.738   30 -0.417   30 -0.393   30 -0.397   30 0.4357   24  0.332   30 -0.515   27 -0.280    1  0.605

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         57 39 512 393  0.018 47.713    1  0.163    1  0.150    1  0.191    1 0.5244   12  0.581    3  0.295   12  0.087   12  0.069
BREWERS      56 40 457 376 -0.015 46.484    5  0.104    5  0.112    4  0.119    6 0.5172    3  0.715    1  0.354   21 -0.115   30 -0.505
CARDINALS    51 46 444 427  0.023 48.614   13  0.036   13  0.051   14  0.043   13 0.5078    7  0.661    8  0.224   23 -0.138   24 -0.125
REDS         50 47 441 410 -0.012 47.241   16  0.015   16  0.015   15  0.031   16 0.5012   13  0.573   11  0.127   19 -0.066   25 -0.132
PIRATES      39 58 326 379  0.058 50.080   26 -0.099   26 -0.111   22 -0.057   26 0.4822   30  0.049   28 -0.393    2  0.279   11  0.090

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     55 41 438 375 -0.025 46.176    7  0.082    7  0.094    5  0.097    7 0.5153   28  0.199   21 -0.128    1  0.322    2  0.434
METS         55 42 426 381 -0.020 46.906    8  0.072    8  0.088   10  0.058    9 0.5125   21  0.356   19 -0.039    5  0.155   22 -0.090
BRAVES       42 53 388 386 -0.020 46.044   25 -0.076   25 -0.096   20 -0.022   25 0.4846   22  0.346   22 -0.128   13  0.083   21 -0.084
MARLINS      44 51 408 463 -0.006 46.705   23 -0.035   23 -0.059   25 -0.090   24 0.4893    1  0.754   10  0.184   29 -0.364   27 -0.385
NATIONALS    38 58 417 519 -0.014 47.017   28 -0.181   28 -0.162   29 -0.187   28 0.4737    4  0.707   13  0.039   30 -0.413   17 -0.038

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       56 40 418 362 -0.012 46.713    4  0.106    4  0.115    6  0.091    4 0.5193   17  0.399   14  0.030    6  0.152   15 -0.026
MARINERS     51 45 451 419  0.017 47.832   12  0.039   12  0.055   11  0.054   10 0.5099    2  0.750    2  0.324   26 -0.216   29 -0.495
RANGERS      48 49 393 346 -0.007 47.391   19  0.001   20 -0.012   12  0.053   20 0.4987   19  0.380   17 -0.024    7  0.129   28 -0.482
ANGELS       47 49 418 480  0.010 47.754   20 -0.003   19 -0.010   24 -0.088   19 0.4989   14  0.539   16 -0.024   24 -0.152    9  0.116
ATHLETICS    41 57 417 551  0.011 48.900   27 -0.105   27 -0.115   27 -0.162   27 0.4817    8  0.643   15  0.001   28 -0.325    6  0.259

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       59 38 482 395 -0.023 46.700    2  0.158    2  0.147    3  0.141    2 0.5244   11  0.584    6  0.247   17  0.035   19 -0.065
TWINS        47 49 402 410  0.011 47.662   17  0.003   18 -0.009   19  0.006   18 0.4991   20  0.357   20 -0.090   10  0.103    7  0.230
ROYALS       47 50 328 356  0.010 48.255   21 -0.006   21 -0.016   21 -0.053   21 0.4963   26  0.256   27 -0.232    8  0.127   26 -0.266
GUARDIANS    46 49 353 398  0.029 47.958   18  0.003   17 -0.006   23 -0.058   17 0.5005   23  0.337   24 -0.172   16  0.055   23 -0.103
WHITE SOX    32 65 332 430  0.003 48.101   29 -0.249   29 -0.250   28 -0.167   29 0.4605   29  0.147   29 -0.432   11  0.097    8  0.139

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      53 43 501 390  0.000 47.077    9  0.066    9  0.077    2  0.172    8 0.5148   10  0.587    5  0.281   15  0.063   18 -0.046
RAYS         50 47 449 388  0.015 48.197   15  0.022   15  0.030    7  0.089   15 0.5048   15  0.478   12  0.098   14  0.080   13 -0.002
RED SOX      53 45 491 430 -0.007 47.839   11  0.041   11  0.056    9  0.083   12 0.5079    6  0.682    4  0.285   22 -0.119   14 -0.010
BLUE JAYS    55 41 440 423  0.007 47.481    6  0.101    6  0.111   13  0.046    5 0.5183   18  0.383   18 -0.028    9  0.121    5  0.264
ORIOLES      43 52 393 483  0.015 47.504   24 -0.038   24 -0.061   26 -0.126   23 0.4895   16  0.409   26 -0.177   20 -0.074    4  0.321

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 253 230 0.524    1  0.096
AL EAST    254 228 0.527    2  0.078
AL WEST    243 240 0.503    3 -0.015
AL CENTRAL 231 251 0.479    4 -0.038
NL EAST    234 245 0.489    5 -0.042
NL WEST    231 252 0.478    6 -0.075

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.077 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Wed Jul 16 05:30:10 2025
games through: Tue Jul 15 2025

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