Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       17  8 103  74  0.096 13.221    3  0.170    2  0.172    3  0.162    2 0.5502   27 -0.006   23 -0.184    1  0.507   25 -0.260 P
METS         18  7 105  69 -0.078 11.669    4  0.150    4  0.150    6  0.114    5 0.5396   28 -0.016   24 -0.238    2  0.466   23 -0.195 P
BLUE JAYS    12 13  88 104 -0.089 11.837   19 -0.037   19 -0.044   21 -0.080   18 0.4913   30 -0.068   30 -0.467    3  0.308    3  0.401 P
RANGERS      14 11  80  95  0.033 13.011   10  0.056   10  0.060   16 -0.025   10 0.5212   25  0.058   25 -0.325    4  0.275   28 -0.403 P
PIRATES      10 16  93 110 -0.053 12.699   27 -0.114   27 -0.114   26 -0.102   27 0.4650   29 -0.028   29 -0.462    5  0.258    9  0.218 P
ROYALS       12 14  84 100 -0.058 12.763   21 -0.046   21 -0.048   25 -0.100   20 0.4840   26  0.030   27 -0.420    6  0.219   13  0.044 P
GIANTS       17  9 129 101  0.172 14.780    1  0.186    1  0.179    2  0.163    3 0.5499   21  0.384   14  0.119    7  0.206   22 -0.132 P
DODGERS      16  9 116 108  0.069 13.122    5  0.136    5  0.136    9  0.103    4 0.5416   20  0.397   15  0.071    8  0.136   10  0.091 P
ASTROS       13 11  92  81  0.017 12.222   12  0.036   12  0.039   11  0.056   11 0.5149   22  0.347   19 -0.019    9  0.131   18 -0.105 P
TIGERS       15 10 112  82  0.048 12.884    7  0.090    7  0.089    5  0.122    8 0.5230   17  0.452   12  0.137   10  0.106   19 -0.109 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
WHITE SOX     6 19  78 108 -0.121 11.637   29 -0.251   29 -0.250   29 -0.186   30 0.4275   24  0.103   28 -0.454   11  0.081   16  0.013 P
DIAMONDBACKS 14 11 135 118  0.109 13.537    8  0.079    8  0.079    7  0.106    9 0.5225   16  0.477   11  0.143   12  0.068   20 -0.112 P
REDS         12 13 128  97  0.064 13.114   15  0.002   15  0.001   10  0.100   14 0.5051   13  0.506    9  0.164   13  0.036   15  0.030 P
YANKEES      15 10 137 106  0.072 13.208    6  0.103    6  0.102    4  0.136    6 0.5278    9  0.595    4  0.283   14 -0.012    5  0.359 P
BRAVES       10 14  92 104  0.006 12.253   22 -0.058   22 -0.062   18 -0.044   21 0.4823   18  0.438   21 -0.040   15 -0.047   17 -0.098 P
PHILLIES     13 12 111 115 -0.013 12.522   14  0.014   14  0.014   14 -0.016   15 0.5038   15  0.481   16  0.026   16 -0.057    8  0.266 P
TWINS         9 16  85 103 -0.068 12.054   28 -0.132   28 -0.133   27 -0.103   28 0.4532   19  0.407   22 -0.126   17 -0.079   12  0.057 P
ROCKIES       4 20  77 136  0.032 12.782   30 -0.255   30 -0.253   30 -0.231   29 0.4301   23  0.253   26 -0.383   18 -0.080    1  0.492 P
NATIONALS    11 14 105 118 -0.114 11.548   23 -0.081   24 -0.086   24 -0.094   24 0.4756   14  0.501   20 -0.034   19 -0.154   14  0.035 P
ATHLETICS    12 13 109 126  0.053 13.194   16 -0.001   16 -0.003   15 -0.021   16 0.5022   10  0.592   13  0.123   20 -0.166    6  0.349 P
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
MARINERS     14 11 113 109  0.052 13.115    9  0.064    9  0.063   12  0.029    7 0.5237    7  0.655    6  0.234   21 -0.176   27 -0.395 P
RED SOX      14 13 124 128 -0.180 11.743   20 -0.042   20 -0.045   23 -0.088   22 0.4819   12  0.539   18  0.006   22 -0.183    4  0.379 P
CUBS         16 10 163 120  0.226 15.247    2  0.171    3  0.164    1  0.216    1 0.5582    2  0.877    1  0.649   23 -0.217    7  0.339 P
GUARDIANS    14 10  96 101 -0.057 11.617   11  0.045   11  0.048   17 -0.036   12 0.5141    8  0.636   10  0.150   24 -0.223   29 -0.485 P
ORIOLES      10 14 103 130 -0.068 11.588   24 -0.081   23 -0.085   28 -0.113   23 0.4786   11  0.571   17  0.011   25 -0.238    2  0.417 P
BREWERS      13 13 132 119  0.105 14.033   13  0.028   13  0.030    8  0.104   13 0.5074    3  0.810    2  0.466   26 -0.258   26 -0.367 P
RAYS         11 14 109 101 -0.165 11.023   26 -0.095   26 -0.099   19 -0.051   26 0.4697    6  0.672    8  0.171   27 -0.273   24 -0.248 P
ANGELS       12 12  95 112 -0.013 12.087   17 -0.004   17 -0.007   20 -0.072   17 0.4961    5  0.706    7  0.183   28 -0.328   21 -0.128 P
MARLINS      11 13 106 127 -0.026 11.980   18 -0.036   18 -0.042   22 -0.083   19 0.4863    4  0.770    5  0.237   29 -0.403   11  0.075 P
CARDINALS    10 15 120 118 -0.047 12.155   25 -0.094   25 -0.097   13 -0.013   25 0.4718    1  0.907    3  0.452   30 -0.478   30 -0.531 P

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       17  8 103  74  0.096 13.221    3  0.170    2  0.172    3  0.162    2 0.5502   27 -0.006   23 -0.184    1  0.507   25 -0.260 P
GIANTS       17  9 129 101  0.172 14.780    1  0.186    1  0.179    2  0.163    3 0.5499   21  0.384   14  0.119    7  0.206   22 -0.132 P
DODGERS      16  9 116 108  0.069 13.122    5  0.136    5  0.136    9  0.103    4 0.5416   20  0.397   15  0.071    8  0.136   10  0.091 P
DIAMONDBACKS 14 11 135 118  0.109 13.537    8  0.079    8  0.079    7  0.106    9 0.5225   16  0.477   11  0.143   12  0.068   20 -0.112 P
ROCKIES       4 20  77 136  0.032 12.782   30 -0.255   30 -0.253   30 -0.231   29 0.4301   23  0.253   26 -0.383   18 -0.080    1  0.492 P

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PIRATES      10 16  93 110 -0.053 12.699   27 -0.114   27 -0.114   26 -0.102   27 0.4650   29 -0.028   29 -0.462    5  0.258    9  0.218 P
REDS         12 13 128  97  0.064 13.114   15  0.002   15  0.001   10  0.100   14 0.5051   13  0.506    9  0.164   13  0.036   15  0.030 P
CUBS         16 10 163 120  0.226 15.247    2  0.171    3  0.164    1  0.216    1 0.5582    2  0.877    1  0.649   23 -0.217    7  0.339 P
BREWERS      13 13 132 119  0.105 14.033   13  0.028   13  0.030    8  0.104   13 0.5074    3  0.810    2  0.466   26 -0.258   26 -0.367 P
CARDINALS    10 15 120 118 -0.047 12.155   25 -0.094   25 -0.097   13 -0.013   25 0.4718    1  0.907    3  0.452   30 -0.478   30 -0.531 P

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         18  7 105  69 -0.078 11.669    4  0.150    4  0.150    6  0.114    5 0.5396   28 -0.016   24 -0.238    2  0.466   23 -0.195 P
BRAVES       10 14  92 104  0.006 12.253   22 -0.058   22 -0.062   18 -0.044   21 0.4823   18  0.438   21 -0.040   15 -0.047   17 -0.098 P
PHILLIES     13 12 111 115 -0.013 12.522   14  0.014   14  0.014   14 -0.016   15 0.5038   15  0.481   16  0.026   16 -0.057    8  0.266 P
NATIONALS    11 14 105 118 -0.114 11.548   23 -0.081   24 -0.086   24 -0.094   24 0.4756   14  0.501   20 -0.034   19 -0.154   14  0.035 P
MARLINS      11 13 106 127 -0.026 11.980   18 -0.036   18 -0.042   22 -0.083   19 0.4863    4  0.770    5  0.237   29 -0.403   11  0.075 P

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      14 11  80  95  0.033 13.011   10  0.056   10  0.060   16 -0.025   10 0.5212   25  0.058   25 -0.325    4  0.275   28 -0.403 P
ASTROS       13 11  92  81  0.017 12.222   12  0.036   12  0.039   11  0.056   11 0.5149   22  0.347   19 -0.019    9  0.131   18 -0.105 P
ATHLETICS    12 13 109 126  0.053 13.194   16 -0.001   16 -0.003   15 -0.021   16 0.5022   10  0.592   13  0.123   20 -0.166    6  0.349 P
MARINERS     14 11 113 109  0.052 13.115    9  0.064    9  0.063   12  0.029    7 0.5237    7  0.655    6  0.234   21 -0.176   27 -0.395 P
ANGELS       12 12  95 112 -0.013 12.087   17 -0.004   17 -0.007   20 -0.072   17 0.4961    5  0.706    7  0.183   28 -0.328   21 -0.128 P

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       12 14  84 100 -0.058 12.763   21 -0.046   21 -0.048   25 -0.100   20 0.4840   26  0.030   27 -0.420    6  0.219   13  0.044 P
TIGERS       15 10 112  82  0.048 12.884    7  0.090    7  0.089    5  0.122    8 0.5230   17  0.452   12  0.137   10  0.106   19 -0.109 P
WHITE SOX     6 19  78 108 -0.121 11.637   29 -0.251   29 -0.250   29 -0.186   30 0.4275   24  0.103   28 -0.454   11  0.081   16  0.013 P
TWINS         9 16  85 103 -0.068 12.054   28 -0.132   28 -0.133   27 -0.103   28 0.4532   19  0.407   22 -0.126   17 -0.079   12  0.057 P
GUARDIANS    14 10  96 101 -0.057 11.617   11  0.045   11  0.048   17 -0.036   12 0.5141    8  0.636   10  0.150   24 -0.223   29 -0.485 P

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    12 13  88 104 -0.089 11.837   19 -0.037   19 -0.044   21 -0.080   18 0.4913   30 -0.068   30 -0.467    3  0.308    3  0.401 P
YANKEES      15 10 137 106  0.072 13.208    6  0.103    6  0.102    4  0.136    6 0.5278    9  0.595    4  0.283   14 -0.012    5  0.359 P
RED SOX      14 13 124 128 -0.180 11.743   20 -0.042   20 -0.045   23 -0.088   22 0.4819   12  0.539   18  0.006   22 -0.183    4  0.379 P
ORIOLES      10 14 103 130 -0.068 11.588   24 -0.081   23 -0.085   28 -0.113   23 0.4786   11  0.571   17  0.011   25 -0.238    2  0.417 P
RAYS         11 14 109 101 -0.165 11.023   26 -0.095   26 -0.099   19 -0.051   26 0.4697    6  0.672    8  0.171   27 -0.273   24 -0.248 P

DIVISION    W  L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL WEST    68 57 0.544    1  0.141
NL CENTRAL 61 67 0.477    2  0.136
AL WEST    65 58 0.528    3 -0.013
NL EAST    63 60 0.512    4 -0.053
AL EAST    62 64 0.492    5 -0.086
AL CENTRAL 56 69 0.448    6 -0.132

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.187 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.020 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Apr 25 05:30:09 2025
games through: Thu Apr 24 2025

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