Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES      91  62 743 619 -0.020 74.179    3  0.166    3  0.150    4  0.127    3 0.5212   27  0.328   16 -0.020    1  0.275    2  0.310
PADRES        83  69 651 590 -0.022 73.669   11  0.026   11  0.064   11  0.054   11 0.5088   29  0.325   24 -0.096    2  0.205   23 -0.069
PIRATES       65  88 545 626  0.016 76.746   27 -0.099   27 -0.118   23 -0.078   27 0.4832   30  0.188   29 -0.338    3  0.183   19 -0.017
DODGERS       85  67 778 656 -0.032 73.009    9  0.043    9  0.081    7  0.109   10 0.5110   18  0.478   10  0.090    4  0.128    3  0.255
RANGERS       79  74 653 566  0.007 75.916   13  0.010   13  0.034    9  0.090   13 0.5056   19  0.458   12  0.054    5  0.127   30 -0.448
RAYS          74  78 675 627  0.014 75.956   19  0.000   19 -0.013   12  0.045   18 0.4987   25  0.406   19 -0.036    6  0.127   12  0.041
GUARDIANS     80  71 591 616 -0.004 74.466   12  0.015   12  0.048   18 -0.024   12 0.5063   28  0.326   27 -0.173    7  0.126   20 -0.053
CUBS          88  64 743 610 -0.002 74.764    4  0.139    4  0.134    3  0.147    4 0.5184   12  0.527    4  0.172    8  0.121   22 -0.060
TIGERS        85  67 734 645 -0.018 73.937    6  0.057    6  0.090    8  0.102    7 0.5125   16  0.487    9  0.091    9  0.112    6  0.133
ASTROS        84  69 652 625 -0.006 75.254   10  0.039   10  0.079   14  0.028    9 0.5113   22  0.414   20 -0.047   10  0.103   21 -0.056
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RED SOX       83  69 742 638  0.009 75.489    7  0.051    7  0.085    6  0.114    8 0.5121   11  0.527    6  0.141   11  0.088   14  0.008
GIANTS        76  76 662 644 -0.007 74.722   17  0.001   17 -0.004   17  0.007   17 0.4989   24  0.407   22 -0.074   12  0.088   18 -0.013
REDS          76  76 682 656  0.001 75.153   15  0.003   15  0.001   16  0.022   15 0.5001   20  0.440   18 -0.030   13  0.074   10  0.063
BLUE JAYS     89  63 758 671  0.017 76.024    2  0.179    2  0.159    5  0.117    2 0.5226   10  0.545    5  0.160   14  0.074    9  0.077
BREWERS       93  59 780 593 -0.010 74.259    1  0.210    1  0.186    1  0.203    1 0.5257    5  0.636    2  0.332   15  0.073   26 -0.209
METS          78  74 716 668 -0.010 74.462   14  0.006   14  0.017   13  0.038   14 0.5021   15  0.490   14  0.030   16  0.045   11  0.051
ROYALS        76  76 589 606 -0.001 75.154   16  0.002   16 -0.000   20 -0.037   16 0.4991   23  0.409   26 -0.116   17  0.042   27 -0.244
BRAVES        70  83 677 702 -0.003 75.504   25 -0.029   25 -0.075   19 -0.027   25 0.4898   13  0.510   15 -0.016   18 -0.037   16 -0.008
WHITE SOX     57  96 609 698  0.011 76.468   29 -0.230   29 -0.211   27 -0.114   29 0.4703   21  0.430   28 -0.175   19 -0.053   17 -0.010
YANKEES       85  67 794 666  0.020 76.180    5  0.102    5  0.116    2  0.152    5 0.5169    2  0.722    1  0.366   20 -0.062   25 -0.150
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ORIOLES       72  80 650 738  0.019 76.445   21 -0.006   21 -0.032   24 -0.080   20 0.4958   14  0.491   23 -0.086   21 -0.073    7  0.132
TWINS         66  86 653 741  0.003 75.460   26 -0.084   26 -0.111   25 -0.087   26 0.4840   17  0.486   25 -0.098   22 -0.076    4  0.161
DIAMONDBACKS  77  76 758 731 -0.020 74.385   18  0.001   18 -0.008   15  0.025   19 0.4984    6  0.610    8  0.129   23 -0.079    8  0.099
MARINERS      83  69 722 666  0.009 75.602    8  0.048    8  0.085   10  0.065    6 0.5126    3  0.719    3  0.276   24 -0.147   29 -0.425
ATHLETICS     71  81 700 770  0.013 75.985   22 -0.011   22 -0.048   21 -0.047   22 0.4939    8  0.607   11  0.055   25 -0.148    5  0.150
CARDINALS     74  79 653 711  0.004 76.000   20 -0.004   20 -0.027   22 -0.060   21 0.4957    9  0.602   13  0.036   26 -0.157   24 -0.147
ANGELS        69  83 643 788  0.033 77.283   24 -0.017   24 -0.058   28 -0.125   24 0.4918    7  0.609   17 -0.022   27 -0.228   13  0.018
ROCKIES       41 111 567 969  0.022 76.973   30 -0.412   30 -0.392   30 -0.440   30 0.4448   26  0.354   30 -0.566   28 -0.314    1  0.676
MARLINS       72  80 669 758 -0.011 74.638   23 -0.014   23 -0.054   26 -0.096   23 0.4920    1  0.736    7  0.132   29 -0.325   28 -0.268
NATIONALS     62  91 647 842 -0.002 75.951   28 -0.195   28 -0.166   29 -0.230   28 0.4768    4  0.684   21 -0.054   30 -0.407   15  0.003
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES        83  69 651 590 -0.022 73.669   11  0.026   11  0.064   11  0.054   11 0.5088   29  0.325   24 -0.096    2  0.205   23 -0.069
DODGERS       85  67 778 656 -0.032 73.009    9  0.043    9  0.081    7  0.109   10 0.5110   18  0.478   10  0.090    4  0.128    3  0.255
GIANTS        76  76 662 644 -0.007 74.722   17  0.001   17 -0.004   17  0.007   17 0.4989   24  0.407   22 -0.074   12  0.088   18 -0.013
DIAMONDBACKS  77  76 758 731 -0.020 74.385   18  0.001   18 -0.008   15  0.025   19 0.4984    6  0.610    8  0.129   23 -0.079    8  0.099
ROCKIES       41 111 567 969  0.022 76.973   30 -0.412   30 -0.392   30 -0.440   30 0.4448   26  0.354   30 -0.566   28 -0.314    1  0.676

NL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PIRATES       65  88 545 626  0.016 76.746   27 -0.099   27 -0.118   23 -0.078   27 0.4832   30  0.188   29 -0.338    3  0.183   19 -0.017
CUBS          88  64 743 610 -0.002 74.764    4  0.139    4  0.134    3  0.147    4 0.5184   12  0.527    4  0.172    8  0.121   22 -0.060
REDS          76  76 682 656  0.001 75.153   15  0.003   15  0.001   16  0.022   15 0.5001   20  0.440   18 -0.030   13  0.074   10  0.063
BREWERS       93  59 780 593 -0.010 74.259    1  0.210    1  0.186    1  0.203    1 0.5257    5  0.636    2  0.332   15  0.073   26 -0.209
CARDINALS     74  79 653 711  0.004 76.000   20 -0.004   20 -0.027   22 -0.060   21 0.4957    9  0.602   13  0.036   26 -0.157   24 -0.147

NL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES      91  62 743 619 -0.020 74.179    3  0.166    3  0.150    4  0.127    3 0.5212   27  0.328   16 -0.020    1  0.275    2  0.310
METS          78  74 716 668 -0.010 74.462   14  0.006   14  0.017   13  0.038   14 0.5021   15  0.490   14  0.030   16  0.045   11  0.051
BRAVES        70  83 677 702 -0.003 75.504   25 -0.029   25 -0.075   19 -0.027   25 0.4898   13  0.510   15 -0.016   18 -0.037   16 -0.008
MARLINS       72  80 669 758 -0.011 74.638   23 -0.014   23 -0.054   26 -0.096   23 0.4920    1  0.736    7  0.132   29 -0.325   28 -0.268
NATIONALS     62  91 647 842 -0.002 75.951   28 -0.195   28 -0.166   29 -0.230   28 0.4768    4  0.684   21 -0.054   30 -0.407   15  0.003

AL WEST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS       79  74 653 566  0.007 75.916   13  0.010   13  0.034    9  0.090   13 0.5056   19  0.458   12  0.054    5  0.127   30 -0.448
ASTROS        84  69 652 625 -0.006 75.254   10  0.039   10  0.079   14  0.028    9 0.5113   22  0.414   20 -0.047   10  0.103   21 -0.056
MARINERS      83  69 722 666  0.009 75.602    8  0.048    8  0.085   10  0.065    6 0.5126    3  0.719    3  0.276   24 -0.147   29 -0.425
ATHLETICS     71  81 700 770  0.013 75.985   22 -0.011   22 -0.048   21 -0.047   22 0.4939    8  0.607   11  0.055   25 -0.148    5  0.150
ANGELS        69  83 643 788  0.033 77.283   24 -0.017   24 -0.058   28 -0.125   24 0.4918    7  0.609   17 -0.022   27 -0.228   13  0.018

AL CENTRAL
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GUARDIANS     80  71 591 616 -0.004 74.466   12  0.015   12  0.048   18 -0.024   12 0.5063   28  0.326   27 -0.173    7  0.126   20 -0.053
TIGERS        85  67 734 645 -0.018 73.937    6  0.057    6  0.090    8  0.102    7 0.5125   16  0.487    9  0.091    9  0.112    6  0.133
ROYALS        76  76 589 606 -0.001 75.154   16  0.002   16 -0.000   20 -0.037   16 0.4991   23  0.409   26 -0.116   17  0.042   27 -0.244
WHITE SOX     57  96 609 698  0.011 76.468   29 -0.230   29 -0.211   27 -0.114   29 0.4703   21  0.430   28 -0.175   19 -0.053   17 -0.010
TWINS         66  86 653 741  0.003 75.460   26 -0.084   26 -0.111   25 -0.087   26 0.4840   17  0.486   25 -0.098   22 -0.076    4  0.161

AL EAST
                                             STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM           W   L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAYS          74  78 675 627  0.014 75.956   19  0.000   19 -0.013   12  0.045   18 0.4987   25  0.406   19 -0.036    6  0.127   12  0.041
RED SOX       83  69 742 638  0.009 75.489    7  0.051    7  0.085    6  0.114    8 0.5121   11  0.527    6  0.141   11  0.088   14  0.008
BLUE JAYS     89  63 758 671  0.017 76.024    2  0.179    2  0.159    5  0.117    2 0.5226   10  0.545    5  0.160   14  0.074    9  0.077
YANKEES       85  67 794 666  0.020 76.180    5  0.102    5  0.116    2  0.152    5 0.5169    2  0.722    1  0.366   20 -0.062   25 -0.150
ORIOLES       72  80 650 738  0.019 76.445   21 -0.006   21 -0.032   24 -0.080   20 0.4958   14  0.491   23 -0.086   21 -0.073    7  0.132

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
AL EAST    403 357 0.530    1  0.091
NL CENTRAL 396 366 0.520    2  0.061
AL WEST    386 376 0.507    3  0.003
AL CENTRAL 364 396 0.479    4 -0.042
NL EAST    373 390 0.489    5 -0.049
NL WEST    362 399 0.476    6 -0.060

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.074 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.011 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Thu Sep 18 05:32:40 2025
games through: Wed Sep 17 2025

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