Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         34 22 243 186  0.031 28.173    5  0.167    5  0.168    4  0.174    5 0.5283   26  0.193   20 -0.035    1  0.384   23 -0.131
ROYALS       30 27 188 193  0.007 28.381   14  0.038   14  0.043   19 -0.008   14 0.5045   29  0.057   28 -0.320    2  0.303   20 -0.117
YANKEES      35 20 305 192 -0.029 26.226    3  0.175    3  0.174    1  0.270    2 0.5312   18  0.437    6  0.261    3  0.278    6  0.229
TWINS        30 25 216 190 -0.003 27.044   11  0.062   11  0.063   10  0.069   12 0.5104   24  0.235   23 -0.107    4  0.246   14 -0.012
RANGERS      27 30 185 197 -0.015 27.936   21 -0.037   21 -0.045   22 -0.042   23 0.4897   28  0.108   27 -0.316    5  0.232   29 -0.353
BLUE JAYS    28 28 221 235 -0.001 27.709   18  0.001   18 -0.001   21 -0.024   16 0.5000   27  0.136   25 -0.278    6  0.229    3  0.341
GIANTS       31 25 242 203  0.015 27.859    9  0.076    9  0.083    7  0.098    8 0.5148   22  0.308   19 -0.020    7  0.216   16 -0.051
PIRATES      21 36 183 243  0.056 29.625   27 -0.161   27 -0.157   24 -0.140   27 0.4745   30  0.028   29 -0.471    8  0.192    9  0.107
PHILLIES     36 20 270 231 -0.044 26.537    2  0.182    2  0.181    8  0.088    3 0.5296   20  0.334   18 -0.008    9  0.184    4  0.288
BRAVES       26 29 229 215  0.005 27.283   19 -0.026   19 -0.036   14  0.027   19 0.4954   21  0.313   22 -0.087   10  0.141   22 -0.126
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       37 20 288 204 -0.005 27.746    1  0.211    1  0.211    2  0.222    1 0.5357   12  0.565    2  0.331   11  0.114   25 -0.241
ASTROS       30 26 233 207  0.019 28.042   12  0.062   12  0.062    9  0.087   11 0.5108   19  0.434   14  0.076   12  0.098   13 -0.001
RAYS         29 27 239 209 -0.022 27.138   15  0.013   16  0.012   11  0.047   17 0.4995   17  0.437   15  0.039   13  0.055   17 -0.068
PADRES       31 23 233 215 -0.027 26.065    8  0.082    8  0.089   13  0.032    9 0.5146   15  0.443   16  0.029   14  0.035   27 -0.291
DODGERS      34 22 314 249 -0.011 27.184    6  0.142    6  0.144    5  0.157    6 0.5255   10  0.604    3  0.302   15  0.012    7  0.212
CARDINALS    32 24 269 224  0.031 28.243    7  0.111    7  0.118    6  0.144    7 0.5212    9  0.610    4  0.295   16 -0.007   24 -0.169
WHITE SOX    18 38 196 244 -0.003 27.845   29 -0.253   29 -0.257   25 -0.149   29 0.4572   23  0.286   26 -0.284   17 -0.013   15 -0.033
REDS         28 29 264 232 -0.050 27.005   20 -0.030   20 -0.040   15  0.022   21 0.4915   14  0.520   13  0.088   18 -0.044   12  0.002
MARINERS     30 25 250 238 -0.025 26.643   13  0.044   13  0.049   16  0.010   13 0.5086   13  0.544   12  0.098   19 -0.078   18 -0.071
CUBS         35 21 330 235 -0.010 27.127    4  0.173    4  0.172    3  0.217    4 0.5284    2  0.770    1  0.526   20 -0.093   19 -0.075
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BREWERS      29 28 246 245  0.004 28.280   16  0.012   15  0.014   17  0.009   18 0.4993    6  0.636    8  0.185   21 -0.166   30 -0.408
GUARDIANS    30 25 223 240  0.020 27.666   10  0.067   10  0.075   20 -0.016   10 0.5145    7  0.622   10  0.147   22 -0.178   28 -0.294
DIAMONDBACKS 27 29 279 285  0.066 29.105   17  0.011   17  0.011   12  0.042   15 0.5009    5  0.687    5  0.268   23 -0.184    8  0.110
ORIOLES      19 36 213 310  0.022 27.920   28 -0.209   28 -0.205   29 -0.230   28 0.4656   16  0.442   24 -0.233   24 -0.226    2  0.427
RED SOX      27 31 275 263 -0.030 27.987   23 -0.062   24 -0.067   18 -0.002   24 0.4864    4  0.708    7  0.245   25 -0.248   10  0.091
ROCKIES       9 47 177 352  0.057 29.511   30 -0.476   30 -0.466   30 -0.440   30 0.4251   25  0.220   30 -0.629   26 -0.251    1  0.658
NATIONALS    26 30 244 285 -0.030 27.179   24 -0.062   23 -0.067   23 -0.129   22 0.4898   11  0.592   17  0.005   27 -0.262   11  0.082
ATHLETICS    23 34 235 336 -0.018 28.099   26 -0.151   26 -0.147   28 -0.220   26 0.4753    8  0.621   21 -0.059   28 -0.382    5  0.288
ANGELS       25 30 224 280  0.011 27.660   22 -0.053   22 -0.057   26 -0.158   20 0.4916    3  0.739   11  0.120   29 -0.435   26 -0.267
MARLINS      22 32 229 305  0.029 27.560   25 -0.111   25 -0.113   27 -0.166   25 0.4811    1  0.774    9  0.147   30 -0.479   21 -0.125

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
GIANTS       31 25 242 203  0.015 27.859    9  0.076    9  0.083    7  0.098    8 0.5148   22  0.308   19 -0.020    7  0.216   16 -0.051
PADRES       31 23 233 215 -0.027 26.065    8  0.082    8  0.089   13  0.032    9 0.5146   15  0.443   16  0.029   14  0.035   27 -0.291
DODGERS      34 22 314 249 -0.011 27.184    6  0.142    6  0.144    5  0.157    6 0.5255   10  0.604    3  0.302   15  0.012    7  0.212
DIAMONDBACKS 27 29 279 285  0.066 29.105   17  0.011   17  0.011   12  0.042   15 0.5009    5  0.687    5  0.268   23 -0.184    8  0.110
ROCKIES       9 47 177 352  0.057 29.511   30 -0.476   30 -0.466   30 -0.440   30 0.4251   25  0.220   30 -0.629   26 -0.251    1  0.658

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PIRATES      21 36 183 243  0.056 29.625   27 -0.161   27 -0.157   24 -0.140   27 0.4745   30  0.028   29 -0.471    8  0.192    9  0.107
CARDINALS    32 24 269 224  0.031 28.243    7  0.111    7  0.118    6  0.144    7 0.5212    9  0.610    4  0.295   16 -0.007   24 -0.169
REDS         28 29 264 232 -0.050 27.005   20 -0.030   20 -0.040   15  0.022   21 0.4915   14  0.520   13  0.088   18 -0.044   12  0.002
CUBS         35 21 330 235 -0.010 27.127    4  0.173    4  0.172    3  0.217    4 0.5284    2  0.770    1  0.526   20 -0.093   19 -0.075
BREWERS      29 28 246 245  0.004 28.280   16  0.012   15  0.014   17  0.009   18 0.4993    6  0.636    8  0.185   21 -0.166   30 -0.408

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
METS         34 22 243 186  0.031 28.173    5  0.167    5  0.168    4  0.174    5 0.5283   26  0.193   20 -0.035    1  0.384   23 -0.131
PHILLIES     36 20 270 231 -0.044 26.537    2  0.182    2  0.181    8  0.088    3 0.5296   20  0.334   18 -0.008    9  0.184    4  0.288
BRAVES       26 29 229 215  0.005 27.283   19 -0.026   19 -0.036   14  0.027   19 0.4954   21  0.313   22 -0.087   10  0.141   22 -0.126
NATIONALS    26 30 244 285 -0.030 27.179   24 -0.062   23 -0.067   23 -0.129   22 0.4898   11  0.592   17  0.005   27 -0.262   11  0.082
MARLINS      22 32 229 305  0.029 27.560   25 -0.111   25 -0.113   27 -0.166   25 0.4811    1  0.774    9  0.147   30 -0.479   21 -0.125

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RANGERS      27 30 185 197 -0.015 27.936   21 -0.037   21 -0.045   22 -0.042   23 0.4897   28  0.108   27 -0.316    5  0.232   29 -0.353
ASTROS       30 26 233 207  0.019 28.042   12  0.062   12  0.062    9  0.087   11 0.5108   19  0.434   14  0.076   12  0.098   13 -0.001
MARINERS     30 25 250 238 -0.025 26.643   13  0.044   13  0.049   16  0.010   13 0.5086   13  0.544   12  0.098   19 -0.078   18 -0.071
ATHLETICS    23 34 235 336 -0.018 28.099   26 -0.151   26 -0.147   28 -0.220   26 0.4753    8  0.621   21 -0.059   28 -0.382    5  0.288
ANGELS       25 30 224 280  0.011 27.660   22 -0.053   22 -0.057   26 -0.158   20 0.4916    3  0.739   11  0.120   29 -0.435   26 -0.267

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ROYALS       30 27 188 193  0.007 28.381   14  0.038   14  0.043   19 -0.008   14 0.5045   29  0.057   28 -0.320    2  0.303   20 -0.117
TWINS        30 25 216 190 -0.003 27.044   11  0.062   11  0.063   10  0.069   12 0.5104   24  0.235   23 -0.107    4  0.246   14 -0.012
TIGERS       37 20 288 204 -0.005 27.746    1  0.211    1  0.211    2  0.222    1 0.5357   12  0.565    2  0.331   11  0.114   25 -0.241
WHITE SOX    18 38 196 244 -0.003 27.845   29 -0.253   29 -0.257   25 -0.149   29 0.4572   23  0.286   26 -0.284   17 -0.013   15 -0.033
GUARDIANS    30 25 223 240  0.020 27.666   10  0.067   10  0.075   20 -0.016   10 0.5145    7  0.622   10  0.147   22 -0.178   28 -0.294

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
YANKEES      35 20 305 192 -0.029 26.226    3  0.175    3  0.174    1  0.270    2 0.5312   18  0.437    6  0.261    3  0.278    6  0.229
BLUE JAYS    28 28 221 235 -0.001 27.709   18  0.001   18 -0.001   21 -0.024   16 0.5000   27  0.136   25 -0.278    6  0.229    3  0.341
RAYS         29 27 239 209 -0.022 27.138   15  0.013   16  0.012   11  0.047   17 0.4995   17  0.437   15  0.039   13  0.055   17 -0.068
ORIOLES      19 36 213 310  0.022 27.920   28 -0.209   28 -0.205   29 -0.230   28 0.4656   16  0.442   24 -0.233   24 -0.226    2  0.427
RED SOX      27 31 275 263 -0.030 27.987   23 -0.062   24 -0.067   18 -0.002   24 0.4864    4  0.708    7  0.245   25 -0.248   10  0.091

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 145 138 0.512    1  0.076
AL CENTRAL 145 135 0.518    2  0.035
AL EAST    138 142 0.493    3  0.018
NL EAST    144 133 0.520    4 -0.002
NL WEST    132 146 0.475    5 -0.026
AL WEST    135 145 0.482    6 -0.097

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.090 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.014 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri May 30 05:30:05 2025
games through: Thu May 29 2025

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