Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      56 32 494 394 -0.028 42.215    1  0.201    1  0.173    4  0.140    1 0.5295   10  0.622    4  0.285   16 -0.004    5  0.272
CUBS         52 35 464 355  0.020 43.382    2  0.168    2  0.146    1  0.183    2 0.5262    9  0.628    2  0.333   15  0.032   14 -0.007
TIGERS       54 34 446 347 -0.032 42.083    3  0.157    3  0.139    2  0.150    3 0.5240    7  0.643    3  0.315   17 -0.015   25 -0.197
ASTROS       52 35 367 319 -0.023 42.023    4  0.124    4  0.120    8  0.080    4 0.5215   18  0.369   15 -0.005    6  0.164   20 -0.067
PHILLIES     51 36 399 347 -0.015 42.258    5  0.109    5  0.111    5  0.092    5 0.5197   28  0.187   22 -0.140    1  0.324    2  0.453
METS         50 38 380 341 -0.008 43.040    6  0.078    6  0.090   10  0.063    7 0.5144   19  0.356   18 -0.033    7  0.158   24 -0.188
BLUE JAYS    49 38 401 392  0.008 43.151    7  0.075    7  0.089   12  0.034    6 0.5158   17  0.391   17 -0.032   11  0.100    4  0.318
BREWERS      48 39 409 353  0.002 42.841    8  0.052    8  0.070    7  0.090   11 0.5104    2  0.746    1  0.357   24 -0.177   30 -0.530
CARDINALS    47 41 403 371  0.035 44.581    9  0.046    9  0.066    9  0.073    9 0.5114   11  0.618    7  0.213   19 -0.068   23 -0.122
YANKEES      48 39 445 345 -0.022 41.986   10  0.040   10  0.059    3  0.148    8 0.5122   15  0.509   10  0.187   10  0.110   13  0.011
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
RAYS         48 39 416 347 -0.023 42.003   11  0.035   12  0.057    6  0.091   12 0.5099   13  0.588    9  0.203   18 -0.020   22 -0.105
PADRES       46 40 352 341  0.018 43.027   12  0.034   11  0.058   14  0.029   10 0.5106   23  0.295   19 -0.117    5  0.175   16 -0.042
GIANTS       47 41 366 336 -0.022 42.598   13  0.016   13  0.034   13  0.029   13 0.5056   26  0.252   23 -0.152    3  0.211   19 -0.052
REDS         45 42 404 369  0.010 43.194   14  0.014   14  0.029   11  0.054   15 0.5035   12  0.600   11  0.177   20 -0.070   21 -0.089
MARINERS     45 42 394 380 -0.017 42.316   15  0.005   15  0.014   19  0.004   14 0.5035    8  0.630   12  0.156   22 -0.148   26 -0.311
ANGELS       43 43 371 417 -0.003 42.429   16 -0.004   16 -0.002   24 -0.075   16 0.5005   14  0.578   14  0.028   25 -0.178   15 -0.037
DIAMONDBACKS 43 44 451 447  0.004 43.026   17 -0.007   17 -0.007   15  0.022   17 0.4982    3  0.732    5  0.275   26 -0.230    9  0.086
RED SOX      43 45 421 406  0.004 43.552   18 -0.010   18 -0.013   16  0.018   19 0.4965    5  0.667    8  0.207   23 -0.170   11  0.066
RANGERS      43 44 330 304 -0.028 41.922   19 -0.015   19 -0.023   17  0.014   20 0.4950   27  0.246   24 -0.173    4  0.200   27 -0.339
GUARDIANS    40 45 309 361  0.026 42.925   20 -0.017   20 -0.026   23 -0.075   18 0.4966   24  0.278   26 -0.235   13  0.085   12  0.029
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        41 46 359 377 -0.008 42.692   21 -0.026   21 -0.043   21 -0.024   21 0.4933   20  0.348   20 -0.127   14  0.078    7  0.270
ROYALS       41 47 290 324  0.005 43.730   22 -0.028   22 -0.043   22 -0.070   22 0.4910   25  0.267   27 -0.240   12  0.099   28 -0.347
PIRATES      38 50 310 339  0.066 45.789   23 -0.039   24 -0.058   20 -0.012   23 0.4905   30  0.077   28 -0.326    2  0.303   10  0.078
MARLINS      39 46 360 430  0.008 42.398   24 -0.041   23 -0.053   25 -0.106   24 0.4901    1  0.819    6  0.236   30 -0.449   29 -0.429
BRAVES       39 47 348 339  0.000 42.442   25 -0.045   25 -0.063   18  0.005   25 0.4894   22  0.297   21 -0.139    8  0.150   17 -0.043
ORIOLES      37 49 357 444  0.008 42.875   26 -0.078   26 -0.090   26 -0.135   26 0.4832   16  0.413   25 -0.182   21 -0.088    3  0.367
NATIONALS    37 50 388 456 -0.016 42.596   27 -0.105   27 -0.112   27 -0.137   27 0.4811    4  0.702   13  0.086   29 -0.360   18 -0.048
ATHLETICS    36 53 369 509  0.006 44.370   28 -0.134   28 -0.129   29 -0.183   28 0.4783    6  0.650   16 -0.012   28 -0.355    6  0.271
WHITE SOX    28 59 294 384  0.012 43.517   29 -0.250   29 -0.238   28 -0.156   29 0.4588   29  0.141   29 -0.423    9  0.111    8  0.139
ROCKIES      20 67 310 533  0.043 44.848   30 -0.352   30 -0.355   30 -0.356   30 0.4385   21  0.342   30 -0.463   27 -0.248    1  0.594

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      56 32 494 394 -0.028 42.215    1  0.201    1  0.173    4  0.140    1 0.5295   10  0.622    4  0.285   16 -0.004    5  0.272
PADRES       46 40 352 341  0.018 43.027   12  0.034   11  0.058   14  0.029   10 0.5106   23  0.295   19 -0.117    5  0.175   16 -0.042
GIANTS       47 41 366 336 -0.022 42.598   13  0.016   13  0.034   13  0.029   13 0.5056   26  0.252   23 -0.152    3  0.211   19 -0.052
DIAMONDBACKS 43 44 451 447  0.004 43.026   17 -0.007   17 -0.007   15  0.022   17 0.4982    3  0.732    5  0.275   26 -0.230    9  0.086
ROCKIES      20 67 310 533  0.043 44.848   30 -0.352   30 -0.355   30 -0.356   30 0.4385   21  0.342   30 -0.463   27 -0.248    1  0.594

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         52 35 464 355  0.020 43.382    2  0.168    2  0.146    1  0.183    2 0.5262    9  0.628    2  0.333   15  0.032   14 -0.007
BREWERS      48 39 409 353  0.002 42.841    8  0.052    8  0.070    7  0.090   11 0.5104    2  0.746    1  0.357   24 -0.177   30 -0.530
CARDINALS    47 41 403 371  0.035 44.581    9  0.046    9  0.066    9  0.073    9 0.5114   11  0.618    7  0.213   19 -0.068   23 -0.122
REDS         45 42 404 369  0.010 43.194   14  0.014   14  0.029   11  0.054   15 0.5035   12  0.600   11  0.177   20 -0.070   21 -0.089
PIRATES      38 50 310 339  0.066 45.789   23 -0.039   24 -0.058   20 -0.012   23 0.4905   30  0.077   28 -0.326    2  0.303   10  0.078

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     51 36 399 347 -0.015 42.258    5  0.109    5  0.111    5  0.092    5 0.5197   28  0.187   22 -0.140    1  0.324    2  0.453
METS         50 38 380 341 -0.008 43.040    6  0.078    6  0.090   10  0.063    7 0.5144   19  0.356   18 -0.033    7  0.158   24 -0.188
MARLINS      39 46 360 430  0.008 42.398   24 -0.041   23 -0.053   25 -0.106   24 0.4901    1  0.819    6  0.236   30 -0.449   29 -0.429
BRAVES       39 47 348 339  0.000 42.442   25 -0.045   25 -0.063   18  0.005   25 0.4894   22  0.297   21 -0.139    8  0.150   17 -0.043
NATIONALS    37 50 388 456 -0.016 42.596   27 -0.105   27 -0.112   27 -0.137   27 0.4811    4  0.702   13  0.086   29 -0.360   18 -0.048

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       52 35 367 319 -0.023 42.023    4  0.124    4  0.120    8  0.080    4 0.5215   18  0.369   15 -0.005    6  0.164   20 -0.067
MARINERS     45 42 394 380 -0.017 42.316   15  0.005   15  0.014   19  0.004   14 0.5035    8  0.630   12  0.156   22 -0.148   26 -0.311
ANGELS       43 43 371 417 -0.003 42.429   16 -0.004   16 -0.002   24 -0.075   16 0.5005   14  0.578   14  0.028   25 -0.178   15 -0.037
RANGERS      43 44 330 304 -0.028 41.922   19 -0.015   19 -0.023   17  0.014   20 0.4950   27  0.246   24 -0.173    4  0.200   27 -0.339
ATHLETICS    36 53 369 509  0.006 44.370   28 -0.134   28 -0.129   29 -0.183   28 0.4783    6  0.650   16 -0.012   28 -0.355    6  0.271

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       54 34 446 347 -0.032 42.083    3  0.157    3  0.139    2  0.150    3 0.5240    7  0.643    3  0.315   17 -0.015   25 -0.197
GUARDIANS    40 45 309 361  0.026 42.925   20 -0.017   20 -0.026   23 -0.075   18 0.4966   24  0.278   26 -0.235   13  0.085   12  0.029
TWINS        41 46 359 377 -0.008 42.692   21 -0.026   21 -0.043   21 -0.024   21 0.4933   20  0.348   20 -0.127   14  0.078    7  0.270
ROYALS       41 47 290 324  0.005 43.730   22 -0.028   22 -0.043   22 -0.070   22 0.4910   25  0.267   27 -0.240   12  0.099   28 -0.347
WHITE SOX    28 59 294 384  0.012 43.517   29 -0.250   29 -0.238   28 -0.156   29 0.4588   29  0.141   29 -0.423    9  0.111    8  0.139

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    49 38 401 392  0.008 43.151    7  0.075    7  0.089   12  0.034    6 0.5158   17  0.391   17 -0.032   11  0.100    4  0.318
YANKEES      48 39 445 345 -0.022 41.986   10  0.040   10  0.059    3  0.148    8 0.5122   15  0.509   10  0.187   10  0.110   13  0.011
RAYS         48 39 416 347 -0.023 42.003   11  0.035   12  0.057    6  0.091   12 0.5099   13  0.588    9  0.203   18 -0.020   22 -0.105
RED SOX      43 45 421 406  0.004 43.552   18 -0.010   18 -0.013   16  0.018   19 0.4965    5  0.667    8  0.207   23 -0.170   11  0.066
ORIOLES      37 49 357 444  0.008 42.875   26 -0.078   26 -0.090   26 -0.135   26 0.4832   16  0.413   25 -0.182   21 -0.088    3  0.367

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 230 207 0.526    1  0.120
AL EAST    225 210 0.517    2  0.049
NL EAST    216 217 0.499    3 -0.026
NL WEST    212 224 0.486    4 -0.038
AL WEST    219 217 0.502    5 -0.049
AL CENTRAL 204 231 0.469    6 -0.055

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.082 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Fri Jul  4 05:30:07 2025
games through: Thu Jul  3 2025

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